63% of New Brunswickers Say Canada Should Stand Firm Against U.S. Even If It Brings Economic Costs: Poll

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New Brunswickers appear willing to accept a harder economic road if the alternative is backing down in the escalating trade confrontation with the United States. Newlieve Canada should stand firm against U.S. pressure even if that creates economic costs for Canadians, while 24% prefer de-escalation if it requires dropping some Canadian countermeasures.

That sentiment is especially striking in a province whose economy is deeply connected to American customers. It also arrives days before new U.S. tariffs are scheduled to take effect on selected Canadian products, raising the stakes for businesses, governments and households. The numbers point to a public mood in which affordability worries remain intense, yet economic anxiety has not translated into broad support for making concessions simply to calm the dispute.

The 63% Result Shows a Clear Preference for Resistance

The central finding leaves a substantial gap between the two approaches presented to respondents. Nearly two-thirds, 63%, chose standing firm against U.S. pressure despite possible economic costs, compared with 24% who favoured de-escalating even if Canada had to withdraw some countermeasures. The remaining respondents did not choose either position. That is more than a narrow plurality: the stand-firm position leads the compromise-oriented option by 39 percentage points.

The result comes from polling conducted by Abacus Data between July 29 and August 7, 2026, involving 601 New Brunswick adults. The data were weighted to reflect the province by characteristics including age, gender, education and region. The timing matters. Respondents were answering after months of tariff disputes and after Washington announced another round of 50% duties on selected Canadian products. The finding therefore reflects opinions formed in an environment where the possibility of economic damage was already prominent rather than merely theoretical.

New Brunswick Has More at Risk Than Most Provinces

Support for holding the line takes on added meaning because New Brunswick depends heavily on American trade. Parliamentary research using 2025 merchandise data shows the United States accounted for 90.1% of the total value of New Brunswick’s exports. That degree of concentration means developments at the border can quickly become local concerns for producers, workers, transportation companies and communities tied to export industries.

The province’s merchandise exports were already worth about $17.4 billion in 2024, with energy products playing an especially important role alongside sectors such as forestry, seafood and other manufactured goods. A disruption does not remain confined to exporters. A mill selling less lumber, a seafood processor facing weaker orders or an industrial company dealing with higher cross-border costs can eventually affect shifts, investment decisions and local suppliers. New Brunswickers are therefore not expressing toughness from the sidelines. Many live in an economy where the financial consequences of a prolonged Canada–U.S. dispute could arrive relatively close to home.

American Alcohol Has Become a Symbol of the Wider Fight

The clearest example of that willingness to maintain pressure involves American alcohol. The Abacus findings show 72% of New Brunswickers want restrictions on the sale of U.S.-made alcohol to remain in place, compared with only 19% who want them lifted. Support is not limited to one provincial political constituency: majorities of Liberal, Progressive Conservative, Green and NDP supporters all backed keeping the restrictions.

Respondents were even asked how long that position should last. Half said restrictions should remain until U.S. tariffs are removed, even if Washington retaliates further. Another 24% favoured keeping the restrictions permanently, while 16% wanted them lifted to reduce trade tensions. Alcohol has become unusually important because Washington itself has cited Canadian treatment of American alcoholic beverages while justifying new trade action. That turns a decision normally made in provincial liquor systems into part of a much larger negotiating contest over whether economic pressure will cause Canadian governments to reverse retaliatory measures.

Cost-of-Living Anxiety Has Not Produced a Rush to Compromise

The most revealing part of the findings may be how the trade numbers coexist with household anxiety. When New Brunswickers were asked to identify the most important issues facing Canada, 74% selected the cost of living. Health care followed at 47%, housing affordability and accessibility at 35%, while both the economy and Donald Trump and his administration were selected by 31%.

Financial worries also appeared when respondents were asked which news developments were most likely to keep them awake at night. Economic issues and inflation ranked first at 22%, ahead of global conflicts at 20% and concerns about Trump’s actions at 13%. Yet the same population still produced a 63% majority for standing firm despite possible economic costs. That combination complicates the idea that economic pressure automatically generates public support for concessions. New Brunswickers may be highly price-sensitive, but many appear to distinguish between wanting relief from rising costs and wanting Canada to surrender bargaining tools simply to obtain short-term calm.

Trump’s Unpopularity Is Part of the Political Backdrop

The strength of the result also has to be viewed against attitudes toward the U.S. president. Only 5% of respondents reported a positive impression of Donald Trump, while 82% had a negative impression. That produced a net favourable rating of minus 77, making Trump substantially more unpopular in the province than any of the Canadian political figures measured in the same research.

That does not prove every respondent supporting a tougher Canadian position is motivated primarily by personal feelings about Trump. Trade concerns can involve sovereignty, economic strategy, negotiating leverage and perceptions of fairness as well as attitudes toward an individual leader. Still, an 82% negative rating creates a difficult political environment for any Canadian government trying to sell concessions as a response to U.S. pressure. The numbers suggest governments may have more public room to negotiate from a firm position than to appear eager for a settlement. Any compromise would likely need to be presented as reciprocal rather than simply as Canada removing measures first.

The Holt Government Gets Relatively Strong Marks on the U.S. File

The trade confrontation is also one of the areas where Premier Susan Holt’s government performs comparatively well in the poll. Thirty-seven per cent approve of its response to pressures from the Trump presidency and the U.S. trade conflict. Only its response to wildfires, at 47% approval, received a stronger rating among the areas highlighted by Abacus.

That stands out because the government receives weaker marks elsewhere. Only 25% approve of its performance in helping New Brunswickers deal with inflation and rising costs, while overall government approval sits at 32% against 37% disapproval. At the same time, the Liberals lead the Progressive Conservatives 45% to 31% among decided voters. Those numbers should not be interpreted as proof that the trade response caused the Liberal advantage. They do show, however, that standing up to U.S. pressure is one area where the provincial government’s posture appears more closely aligned with the majority sentiment recorded in the poll than its performance on several difficult domestic files.

New Brunswick Is Not Alone in Wanting Canada to Hold Its Ground

The province’s mood fits a wider Canadian pattern. In national Abacus polling released in July, 69% of Canadians chose the position that Canada should hold firm in CUSMA negotiations even if uncertainty lasted longer. Only 20% favoured making compromises in order to reach an agreement sooner. The questions are not identical, so the percentages should not be treated as directly interchangeable, but both point toward a preference for patience and resistance over a quick agreement achieved through substantial concessions.

That broader context matters for federal negotiators. A government entering difficult talks normally has to consider not only the economic consequences of refusing demands but the domestic consequences of accepting them. If a large share of the public believes excessive compromise would reward U.S. pressure, Ottawa may have political space to tolerate a longer negotiation. At the same time, public patience could change if abstract “economic costs” become highly visible through layoffs, investment cancellations or sharply higher household expenses.

The Economic Costs Mentioned in the Poll Are Far From Hypothetical

The trade dispute has already moved well beyond rhetoric. The U.S. currently applies several layers of tariffs, including sectoral duties affecting products such as steel, aluminum, copper, vehicles and softwood lumber. Washington has also announced additional 50% tariffs on selected Canadian products under Section 338 of the Tariff Act, scheduled to take effect August 19. U.S. officials estimate the new measures would cover nearly US$20 billion of Canadian imports, about 5.2% of U.S. goods imports from Canada in 2025.

Tariffs can also reach households indirectly. Bank of Canada researchers examining Canada’s 2025 counter-tariffs found prices of affected products eventually rose about 6% relative to comparable non-tariffed goods before falling toward earlier levels after most counter-tariffs were removed. The Bank has also incorporated weaker potential economic growth from U.S. trade policy into its outlook. Such findings help put the poll’s wording into perspective: accepting “economic costs” can mean something tangible, from narrower business margins and delayed investment to changes in retail prices.

Public Support Gives Negotiators Room, but It Is Not a Blank Cheque

Canada and the United States are still talking. Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc has held repeated meetings with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, while other senior officials have remained engaged as the August 19 deadline approaches. Reuters reported on August 13 that a Canadian government source described negotiations as progressing well and said both sides wanted an agreement before the new tariffs take effect.

The New Brunswick results therefore should not be read as a demand to reject negotiation. Standing firm and negotiating are not mutually exclusive. Instead, the numbers indicate that many residents want any settlement to look defensible rather than one-sided. There is also an important limitation: the poll does not attach a specific dollar amount, duration, unemployment increase or price rise to the phrase “economic costs.” Support measured under a general scenario may change once costs become specific. For Ottawa and Fredericton, the political challenge is balancing that appetite for resistance with the practical need to protect jobs, investment and household purchasing power.

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