Only 26% of Americans Now Call Canada a Close Ally—Down From 62% Three Years Ago: AP-NORC

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For generations, the Canada–United States relationship has been treated as one of the most durable partnerships in the Western world. The latest AP-NORC findings show how dramatically the public perception of that relationship has changed. Only 26% of U.S. adults now describe Canada as a “close ally,” compared with 62% in September 2023 and 45% in March 2025. At the same time, the numbers do not suggest that Americans suddenly regard their northern neighbour as an enemy. Most still place the relationship somewhere between close partnership and uneasy coexistence. The shift arrives during an unusually turbulent period marked by tariffs, retaliation, uncertainty surrounding the North American trade agreement and increasingly strained political relations—while enormous economic, military and personal connections continue operating across the border.

The 36-Point Drop Is Far Larger Than Ordinary Sampling Movement

The headline number comes from AP-NORC interviews conducted from September 24 to 28, 2026, with 2,140 U.S. adults. Twenty-six per cent called Canada a close ally, 35% described the countries as friendly but not close allies, 30% said they were not friendly but not enemies, and 6% described them as enemies. The overall margin of sampling error was plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. That makes the difference from September 2023—when 62% chose “close allies”—far too large to explain as ordinary sampling fluctuation alone.

The comparison is particularly striking because AP-NORC has used essentially the same four-part relationship question across the period. In September 2023, 62% chose close allies and another 25% said friendly but not close allies. By March 2025, the close-ally share had fallen to 45%, while 30% selected the friendly-but-not-close category. The newest reading therefore represents more than a one-time dip: the share choosing the strongest description is 36 percentage points below its 2023 level. The 2023 Pearson Institute/AP-NORC research involved 1,191 adults and carried a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

The Decline Has Not Followed a Straight Line

One of the most important details is easy to miss when looking only at the 2023, 2025 and September 2026 figures. AP-NORC measured the same question in February 2026 and found that 49% of Americans regarded Canada as a close ally. Another 30% called the relationship friendly but not close. That meant nearly four in five respondents in that February subsample still put Canada on the friendly side of the relationship scale. The Canada question was asked of 544 people in that February study, so the estimate carried more uncertainty than the September figure, but the difference remains substantial.

From February’s 49% to September’s 26%, the close-ally reading fell 23 percentage points in roughly seven months. That volatility matters because it cautions against describing the change as a simple, uninterrupted three-year decline. Public perceptions appear capable of shifting quickly alongside political developments. Earlier AP-NORC data also showed movement across party lines: in March 2025, 51% of Democrats and 44% of Republicans called Canada a close ally, compared with 73% and 55%, respectively, in 2023. AP-NORC’s published September 2026 topline does not provide a comparable partisan breakdown for the Canada question, so attributing the newest decline predominantly to either party would go beyond the currently published evidence.

“Close Ally” Is Not the Same Thing as “Friendly”

The 26% figure sounds especially dramatic when presented on its own, but the other responses change the picture considerably. Thirty-five per cent of Americans said Canada and the United States are friendly even if they are no longer “close allies.” Put together, roughly six in ten Americans still selected one of the two positive descriptions. Another 30% characterized relations as not friendly but stopped short of calling the countries enemies. Just 6% chose the strongest negative option.

That distinction is important when interpreting what has changed. The result provides strong evidence that Americans are less willing to apply the closest possible label to Canada; it does not show that three-quarters of Americans are hostile toward Canadians. The same September AP-NORC question found 37% describing Russia as an enemy and 27% saying the same about China, compared with 6% for Canada. Those comparisons do not erase the deterioration in how the U.S.-Canada relationship is perceived, but they demonstrate that “not a close ally” covers a broad spectrum of attitudes. Someone choosing “friendly but not close allies” is expressing something quite different from someone choosing “enemies,” even though both respondents fall outside the headline 26%.

Other Research Shows Americans Still Hold Positive Views of Canadians

A separate Angus Reid Institute study conducted shortly before the latest AP-NORC work illustrates why wording matters. In polling carried out from July 31 to August 5, 2026, 79% of Americans reported a favourable view of Canadian people. Seventy-eight per cent said the United States should approach Canada either as a valued partner or on friendly terms. At that point, 59% opposed the latest proposed tariffs on Canada, compared with 24% who supported them. The U.S. portion involved 1,000 adults.

Those findings are not directly interchangeable with AP-NORC because the organizations asked different questions at different times. One asks respondents to categorize the government-to-government relationship; another examines feelings toward Canadian people and the approach Washington should take toward Canada. Events also moved quickly between early August and late September. Still, the contrast demonstrates why the newest headline should not be translated into a claim that Americans broadly dislike Canada or Canadians. Public opinion can simultaneously hold several ideas: Canadians can be viewed favourably as people, continued friendship can be preferred, and yet fewer respondents can believe the relationship currently qualifies as a “close alliance.” The polls measure related concepts, but not identical ones.

Trade Conflict Provides an Important Backdrop, but the Data Do Not Prove Causation

The newest finding arrived amid significant economic disputes. On July 1, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative announced that the United States would not renew the USMCA in its current form during its six-year review. Crucially, USTR also said the agreement remains in force while the three countries attempt to resolve their differences. Canada subsequently introduced counter-tariffs at rates of 15%, 25% and 50% on selected U.S. goods effective September 8 after new U.S. tariffs were imposed on Canadian products. Additional U.S. restrictions on specified Canadian imports took effect September 29, immediately after AP-NORC finished interviewing respondents.

The AP-NORC findings show that broader American attitudes toward the administration’s trade policies were also negative at the time. Sixty-eight per cent disapproved of President Donald Trump’s handling of trade negotiations with other countries, while 64% said the administration had gone too far in imposing new tariffs. That places the Canada result within a period of broader public concern over trade policy. It would nevertheless be incorrect to say the research proves tariffs caused the decline in Canada’s ally rating: AP-NORC measured attitudes, not a causal mechanism linking individual trade measures to answers about Canada. The timing makes the dispute relevant context, rather than definitive proof of why each respondent answered as they did.

Economic Integration Remains Enormous Despite the Political Friction

The political relationship may look dramatically different from three years ago, but the underlying commercial connection remains one of extraordinary scale. The U.S. Trade Representative estimates that U.S. goods and services trade with Canada totalled US$872.3 billion in 2025. Goods trade accounted for approximately US$715.5 billion, including US$333.6 billion of U.S. exports to Canada and US$381.9 billion in imports. Services trade added another estimated US$156.8 billion. Those figures mean businesses on both sides of the border continue to depend on a relationship measured in hundreds of billions of dollars annually.

Trade tensions are nonetheless changing some of those flows. Global Affairs Canada reported that Canadian goods and services exports to the United States fell 3.7% in 2025, while exports to non-U.S. markets increased 11.1%. Non-U.S. destinations consequently accounted for 32.8% of Canadian exports, their highest share in four decades, according to the department. The same report said goods exports to the United States were affected by weakness in energy, motor vehicles and parts as well as tariff pressures. For Canadian manufacturers, farmers and resource producers, the debate over whether the two countries feel like close allies is therefore not merely diplomatic language. Policy changes can influence markets, investment decisions and where companies look for future customers.

Military Institutions Still Make Canada and the U.S. Formal Allies

Public perception does not determine treaty status. Canada and the United States remain members of NATO, whose Article 5 collective-defence provision states that an armed attack against one member is considered an attack against all members, requiring other allies to provide assistance they deem necessary. The countries are also linked through NORAD, the binational North American Aerospace Defense Command established in 1958 to provide aerospace warning, aerospace control and maritime warning for the continent. The NORAD commander is accountable to both governments, and Canadian and American military personnel operate inside the same continental defence structure.

That institutional picture can coexist with deteriorating public assessments of the bilateral relationship. In fact, AP-NORC found in February 2026 that 70% of Americans considered NATO membership very or somewhat good for the United States, up from 57% in March 2025. During that same February research, 49% considered Canada a close ally. Those findings underline the difference between support for longstanding alliance institutions and perceptions of how well a particular bilateral relationship is functioning at a specific moment. Whatever label respondents choose in a public-opinion question, military cooperation does not automatically disappear with a lower number. NORAD continues its operational role, and the two countries remain bound through NATO unless those formal arrangements themselves are changed.

Canadians Have Also Reconsidered the Relationship, Even as Cross-Border Life Continues

The changing mood is visible north of the border as well. Angus Reid Institute research in August found Canadians almost evenly divided in their opinion of Americans: 45% held a favourable view of American people and 48% an unfavourable one. The same research found much stronger negativity toward President Trump personally, with 79% of Canadians holding an unfavourable view. Earlier in February, Angus Reid reported that only 22% of Canadians believed their country should treat the United States as a friend or ally, while 69% preferred an approach involving caution, suspicion or treating the U.S. as a potential threat. Different question wording again makes direct comparisons inappropriate, but the evidence points to strain on both sides of the border.

Everyday movement between the countries, however, has not stopped. Statistics Canada estimated 2.6 million Canadian-resident return trips from the United States by air and automobile in August 2026, an 8.8% increase from August 2025. Yet the recovery remained well below earlier levels: automobile return trips were still 27.4% below August 2024 and air trips were 22.7% lower. U.S.-resident travel into Canada also continued, with roughly 630,000 air arrivals and 1.8 million automobile arrivals recorded in August. The picture is therefore more complicated than either “close friends” or “relationship broken.” Political attitudes have shifted dramatically, while families, tourists, businesses, defence personnel and supply chains continue crossing a border that remains deeply interconnected.

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