Trump Team Opens New China Tariff Talks While Carney Has No U.S. Meeting Scheduled in New York

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New York is becoming the stage for two very different North American trade stories. On September 20, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are opening a new round of economic and trade consultations in Manhattan, with tariffs, artificial intelligence and critical minerals on the agenda ahead of a September 24 Trump-Xi meeting in Washington. Prime Minister Mark Carney, meanwhile, is due in New York from September 21 to 23 for the United Nations General Assembly, but Canadian officials said no meeting with President Donald Trump or other members of the U.S. administration was scheduled as of September 18. That contrast is striking, but it does not by itself prove Washington is prioritizing Beijing over Ottawa. It does show how differently the two relationships are moving as Canada-U.S. tariff tensions remain unresolved.

New U.S.-China Talks Begin in New York

The U.S.-China talks are not a ceremonial side meeting. Bessent and He are leading delegations during a week crowded with United Nations diplomacy, and Reuters reported that the discussions include tariffs, critical-mineral flows, artificial intelligence and economic issues. China’s Commerce Ministry separately confirmed that He would lead a delegation to the United States from September 19 to 23 for economic and trade consultations. The meeting continues a negotiating channel that has repeatedly been used to contain escalation between the world’s two largest economies.

The immediate purpose is preparation for Trump’s September 24 meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington. That creates a short runway for negotiators to narrow differences or at least identify areas where leaders can announce progress. For companies exposed to U.S.-China commerce, even limited agreements on tariff treatment, purchases or export restrictions can matter because they affect planning, inventories and investment decisions across global supply chains.

Tariffs Remain at the Centre of the Bargaining

Tariffs remain central because Washington is still looking for durable legal tools to pressure Chinese manufacturing while preserving room to negotiate. In March, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative opened Section 301 investigations into what it called structural excess capacity and production across economies, including China. Section 301 can support trade remedies when USTR determines that foreign practices are unreasonable, discriminatory or burden U.S. commerce.

Reuters reported that the New York discussions include possible reinstatement of some U.S. tariffs under new legal authorities, potential reductions on non-strategic goods and Chinese commitments involving American agricultural products and Boeing aircraft. That mix illustrates the bargaining structure: pressure in strategic sectors can be paired with relief or purchases elsewhere. It also explains why headline tariff rates alone do not capture the negotiation. The practical outcome could be a patchwork of duties, exemptions, purchasing commitments and sector-specific rules rather than a single agreement.

Rare Earths Give Beijing Significant Leverage

Critical minerals give the talks a supply-chain dimension that reaches far beyond customs duties. Washington has been pressing Beijing over flows of rare-earth materials used in electric vehicles, electronics, wind turbines and defence systems. The International Energy Agency says China accounted for 60 per cent of mined production of magnet rare earths in 2024, 91 per cent of refined output and 94 per cent of sintered permanent magnet production.

That concentration makes export restrictions economically powerful. A manufacturer can redesign a sourcing strategy around a tariff, but replacing a specialized mineral processor or magnet supplier can take years. Reuters reported that U.S. officials want more reliable Chinese rare-earth exports and believe earlier commitments have not been fully met. For North American manufacturers, the issue is not simply the price of Chinese imports. It is whether enough material reaches factories, especially in sectors where alternative refining and processing capacity remains limited.

Artificial Intelligence Has Entered Trade Diplomacy

Artificial intelligence is also becoming part of trade diplomacy rather than a separate technology debate. Reuters reported that Bessent plans to raise AI security with He before the Trump-Xi meeting, while disputes continue over advanced chips, export controls, model capabilities and alleged technology copying. Both governments increasingly treat frontier AI as an economic and national-security asset, so rules governing hardware, investment and access to advanced computing can carry similar strategic weight as tariffs.

The timing is notable because Trump announced on September 19 that he intends to appoint a new AI adviser and create an “AI force,” although details were not released. Washington and Beijing remain divided over semiconductor access and regulatory approaches. Any AI understanding reached through trade talks would therefore be significant even if narrow. A modest agreement on safety communication, chip access or investment screening could influence technology companies well beyond the two countries directly involved today.

The Trump-Xi Meeting Raises the Stakes

The September 24 Trump-Xi meeting raises the stakes because negotiators have only days to shape what can realistically be put before the two presidents. Reuters says the agenda is expected to extend beyond trade to Taiwan, Iran, fentanyl precursor shipments and artificial intelligence. On commerce, key issues include extending the tariff truce, Chinese purchases of U.S. goods, technology restrictions and access to critical minerals.

That breadth makes a comprehensive settlement unlikely in a meeting, but it creates room for smaller deals. A purchase commitment can be announced without resolving semiconductor controls; a tariff pause can be extended without settling strategic competition. Chinese corporate participation may also be part of the diplomacy, with Reuters reporting that executives from companies including BYD, CATL and Xiaomi could accompany Xi. The result may therefore be measured less by a grand trade pact than by whether both governments prevent another escalation and keep negotiations functioning.

Carney’s New York Visit Has a Different Agenda

Carney’s New York trip has a different purpose. The Prime Minister’s Office says he will be in the city from September 21 to 23 for the 81st United Nations General Assembly, where he is expected to meet leaders and investors and promote Canada as a reliable economic and security partner. Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand, rather than Carney, is expected to deliver Canada’s General Assembly address.

Canadian officials told The Canadian Press that no meetings with members of the U.S. administration were scheduled, although they noted that Carney and Trump could cross paths at a gathering involving scores of leaders. The distinction matters. A formal bilateral normally signals an agreed agenda, staff preparation and expectation of policy discussion. An unscheduled encounter can be useful, but it carries less institutional weight. As of September 20, Ottawa has not presented New York as a venue for restarting formal Canada-U.S. trade negotiations publicly.

No Scheduled Meeting Does Not Mean No Contact

The lack of a scheduled bilateral should not be read as evidence that Carney and Trump are no longer communicating. Carney said on September 10 that he had spoken with Trump “a couple of times” in preceding days, including about Ukraine and Iran. Reuters reported that the two leaders were continuing to talk even as their governments were locked in a trade dispute.

A recent example is informal contact substituting for a formal meeting. At the G7 summit in France in June, Carney and Trump did not have a scheduled bilateral, yet Carney later said they had informal discussions covering the economy, artificial intelligence, Ukraine and Iran. That history makes the New York calendar less definitive than it initially appears. A spontaneous conversation could happen without changing the formal state of negotiations, while a genuine trade reset would require officials to reopen the structured channel that broke down in August.

The Canada-U.S. Tariff Fight Is Already Active

The Canada-U.S. dispute remains materially different from the U.S.-China talks because Ottawa and Washington are operating under a fresh round of reciprocal tariffs. Canada says the United States imposed 50 per cent tariffs on C$27.6 billion of Canadian goods effective August 22 after negotiations failed. Ottawa responded with matching counter-tariffs of 15, 25 and 50 per cent on C$27.6 billion of U.S. imports beginning September 8.

Those measures touch sectors including steel, aluminum, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, plastics and electronics. For businesses along the border, that means the diplomatic stalemate is already showing up in invoices and purchasing decisions rather than remaining a negotiating threat. Reuters reported in August that no new talks were scheduled after the breakdown. The contrast with China is concrete: Washington and Beijing are actively bargaining over how to manage tariffs, while the Canada-U.S. channel has not returned to formal negotiating rhythm.

Canada Is Building Alternatives, but the U.S. Still Dominates

Canada’s response has been to accelerate diversification without pretending the U.S. market can be replaced quickly. Statistics Canada reported that 71.7 per cent of Canadian merchandise exports went to the United States in 2025, down from 75.9 per cent in 2024. Exports to non-U.S. destinations rose 17.2 per cent in 2025, showing that diversification is clearly measurable, but the American market still dominates Canadian goods trade.

Carney has spent recent weeks deepening ties with Europe and courting global capital. Ottawa says Canada-EU goods and services trade was about C$178 billion in 2025, while Carney has promoted cooperation in critical minerals, energy, defence, AI and digital trade. On September 20, he met French President Emmanuel Macron in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon to discuss sectors including aerospace, energy and critical minerals. These moves expand Canada’s options, but the scale of U.S. commerce means diversification is a hedge against dependence rather than an immediate substitute soon.

The Bigger Test Is the Future of North American Trade

The bigger question is how these negotiations reshape North American trade. Canada describes the 2026 CUSMA joint review as a scheduled check-in rather than an automatic expiry date. USTR, however, has said it would recommend renewal only if disputes identified through the review are resolved. The United States and Mexico held bilateral rounds on autos, steel, aluminum, agriculture and economic security, while Canada’s negotiations with Washington have stalled.

That leaves Ottawa watching two tracks. One is the immediate tariff fight, where a future Carney-Trump meeting could reopen negotiations. The other is the longer-term architecture of CUSMA, including rules of origin and protection against third-country “free-riding” that Washington has emphasized. U.S.-China talks matter to Canada because any American deal with Beijing on tariffs, critical minerals or technology can influence standards Washington later brings to North American negotiations. New York is therefore one moment in a wider restructuring of trade policy.

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