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Donald Trump inserted himself into two of Canada’s biggest provincial political stories within the space of a minute. On October 27, the U.S. president congratulated British Columbia Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson on his election victory, then immediately praised Quebec Premier Paul St-Pierre Plamondon while sharing a story describing the Parti Québécois win as a “blow to Mark Carney.” The timing gives the posts more weight than ordinary diplomatic congratulations. Quebec has installed a sovereigntist government promising another independence referendum, while British Columbia has swung sharply toward the Conservatives. Both developments are unfolding while Prime Minister Mark Carney is trying to maintain a united Canadian front through an increasingly bitter trade fight with Washington.
Trump Congratulates a Quebec Premier Who Still Wants an Independence Vote
Trump’s message to St-Pierre Plamondon appeared on Truth Social at 10:54 a.m. ET on October 27, exactly 22 days after Quebec’s October 5 election. “Congratulations to Paul St-Pierre Plamondon on his WIN!” Trump wrote. By then, St-Pierre Plamondon was no longer simply the leader of an opposition sovereignty movement. He was Quebec’s premier, heading a Parti Québécois minority government. Updated Elections Québec figures show the PQ with 60 seats and 28.02% of the province-wide valid vote, compared with the 64 seats needed for a majority in the expanded 127-seat National Assembly. The 60th PQ seat came only after a judicial recount in Vachon reversed the initial result and gave PQ candidate Stephan Fogaing victory by just three votes. Overall turnout was about 66.9%. The sovereignty project is also visibly embedded in the new government: Quebec’s official cabinet lists Deputy Premier Catherine Gentilcore as minister responsible for the “Accession of Québec to Independence.”
Yet the relationship between Trump and Quebec’s sovereigntist premier is considerably more complicated than the congratulatory post might suggest. Before the election, St-Pierre Plamondon promised that a PQ government would hold an independence referendum during its first mandate, but not before January 20, 2029, when Trump’s current presidential term is scheduled to end. He argued that a decision as consequential as Quebec’s political future required a calm debate that should not be distorted by instability coming from Washington. After winning, he emphasized that a referendum was not an immediate priority, pointing instead to issues such as homelessness and public spending. That produces an unusual political picture: Trump is celebrating the electoral success of a leader who has explicitly said Trump’s presence in the White House is one reason to postpone the defining objective of his movement. The congratulations should therefore not be mistaken for a formal U.S. endorsement of Quebec independence. Trump did not say he supported sovereignty or a referendum; he congratulated St-Pierre Plamondon on winning an election.
Trump Celebrates the B.C. Conservatives — Despite Doerkson’s Own Criticism of Him
One minute before praising St-Pierre Plamondon, Trump turned his attention to the opposite side of the country. At 10:53 a.m. ET, he congratulated B.C. Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson on what he called a “Big Victory,” adding that “Conservatives are moving strong in Canada!” Trump attached a Bloomberg story about the defeat of NDP Leader David Eby in the snap provincial election Eby had called. The scale of the shift was substantial. Elections BC’s completed initial count, updated October 26, showed the Conservatives leading in 63 of the province’s 93 electoral districts with 48.06% of the vote. The NDP led in 28 with 37.37%, while the Greens led in two with 10.97%. A majority requires 47 seats, putting the Conservatives comfortably over that threshold even though the results remained preliminary. Elections BC has cautioned that mail-in and absentee ballots will be included during the final count scheduled for November 6 through 10, meaning the exact seat totals can still move.
Historically, the result is remarkable. Reuters described it as the first B.C. provincial election victory for the Conservatives since 1928, ending nine years of NDP government. But Trump’s celebration should not be read as evidence that Doerkson campaigned as an ally of the U.S. president. In fact, the opposite happened repeatedly. During the campaign, Doerkson accused Trump of bullying Canada and argued that standing up to Washington required making British Columbia economically stronger. His party proposed removing provincial sales tax from Canadian beer, wine and spirits for the duration of the trade conflict while keeping American alcohol off provincial shelves. The Conservatives said B.C.’s wineries, breweries and distilleries support more than 20,000 jobs. That creates a notable contrast: Trump is presenting the B.C. result as evidence of conservative political momentum, while the incoming premier won partly on promises to shield British Columbians and local industries from Trump’s own trade policies. Nor does a provincial Conservative majority alter the composition of Canada’s federal House of Commons. It is a major political shift in B.C., not a transfer of federal power away from Carney.
The “Blow to Carney” Headline Turns Provincial Results Into a Federal Message
The most politically provocative part of Trump’s Quebec post was the story he chose to attach. The link was not to a fresh report about the new premier taking office. Instead, Trump resurfaced an Irish Times report published on October 6, three weeks earlier, carrying the headline “Separatists win Quebec provincial election in blow to Mark Carney.” The report, written by Reuters journalist David Ljunggren, argued that the return of a sovereigntist Quebec government could make it harder for Carney to maintain Canadian unity while confronting Trump. Its subheadline was even more explicit, saying the result could hamper the prime minister’s effort to maintain national unity against the U.S. president. There is an important distinction here: Trump did not separately write that St-Pierre Plamondon’s victory was a “blow to Mark Carney.” Those words came from the headline of the news report. What Trump did was deliberately place that headline beneath his congratulatory message, making it part of what his followers saw and shared.
That choice arrives at an especially sensitive moment for Carney because the prime minister’s dealings with Washington remain unresolved. On October 26, Carney said there had been a slight intensification in negotiations but insisted that any progress reflected the United States moving closer to Canada’s position. Canada had refused the terms offered during an earlier round of negotiations in August, after which Trump imposed 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion worth of Canadian goods and Ottawa retaliated. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett has recently struck a more optimistic tone, saying negotiations had “picked up” and were “gathering steam” and suggesting the countries were very close to an agreement. Canadian officials have been more cautious. The dispute has also pushed Carney to emphasize Canadian unity and economic diversification as Trump has repeatedly pressured Canadian industries and previously floated making Canada the 51st U.S. state. Against that background, Trump’s back-to-back celebration of a Conservative breakthrough in British Columbia and a sovereigntist breakthrough in Quebec inevitably carries political symbolism. Still, the evidence supports a narrower conclusion than claims of organized interference: Trump congratulated two provincial winners and selected headlines portraying both results as setbacks for Canada’s existing political order. Any assertion that the posts were part of a coordinated attempt to weaken Carney would go beyond what has been publicly established.
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