Scott Moe Says 94% of Saskatchewan Exports Remain Tariff-Free Despite Trump’s Latest Escalation

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For Saskatchewan exporters watching each new turn in the Canada–U.S. trade fight, the latest message from Premier Scott Moe contains both reassurance and a warning. Moe says roughly 94 per cent of Saskatchewan exports entering the United States remain tariff-free even after President Donald Trump’s newest trade measures, limiting the overall provincial impact.

That does not mean every business is escaping unharmed. Honey producers, furniture manufacturers and other targeted exporters face a very different reality from companies shipping many of Saskatchewan’s largest commodities. With the United States still buying more Saskatchewan goods than any other country, even a relatively narrow tariff fight can create outsized problems for the companies caught directly in it.

Moe Says the Provincial Hit Should Remain Relatively Small

Moe responded on September 9 to Trump’s latest round of trade actions by arguing that the overall effect on Saskatchewan should be limited. His central figure was striking: approximately 94 per cent of Saskatchewan exports to the United States remain tariff-free. Moe pointed to a mixed picture underneath that number. Saskatchewan exports such as wooden furniture and honey have faced increased tariff pressure, while tariffs affecting products including road salt and electrical panels have been removed.

The distinction is important. Moe was not claiming that Saskatchewan has escaped the trade war or that every exporter is protected. He specifically acknowledged that some businesses and workers are being disproportionately affected through disrupted markets, additional costs and lost opportunities. His broader argument is that the province’s huge commodity export base remains largely outside the newest measures. Moe said Saskatchewan’s preferred destination remains a return to completely tariff-free trade, rather than accepting 94 per cent as a satisfactory long-term outcome.

Trump’s Latest Measures Go Beyond Another Simple Tariff Increase

The newest escalation is significant because Washington is increasingly using tools beyond conventional across-the-board import duties. Trump signed measures on September 8 that will prohibit imports of certain Canadian dairy products, alcoholic beverages and motorcycles beginning September 29. Separate changes adjust the range of Canadian goods facing additional U.S. duties, with some products removed while others become subject to higher barriers.

The administration is relying heavily on Section 338 of the U.S. Tariff Act of 1930, a rarely used authority that allows retaliatory measures when the president determines that another country discriminates against American commerce. Washington argues that Canadian policies involving dairy, automobiles and provincial restrictions on American alcohol justify the action. Ottawa rejects much of that characterization. The result is a trade dispute that has moved beyond one tariff schedule and into a collection of duties, import restrictions and procurement measures that businesses must increasingly evaluate product by product.

Saskatchewan’s Biggest Exports Help Explain the 94% Figure

Saskatchewan’s export mix provides important context for Moe’s confidence. The province exported about $43.7 billion worth of goods worldwide in 2025, reaching more than 160 countries. The United States alone purchased approximately $23.7 billion, representing 54.3 per cent of Saskatchewan’s total exports. Crude oil, potash, canola products and uranium are among the commodities that dominate the province’s international trade.

Earlier provincial figures illustrate just how concentrated the U.S. relationship can be in large commodities. In 2024, Saskatchewan’s leading exports to the United States included approximately $12.5 billion of crude oil, $4.2 billion of potash and $2.9 billion of canola oil. Because enormous amounts of Saskatchewan’s export value come from a relatively small number of major commodities, avoiding new tariffs on those high-value flows can keep the overall tariff-free percentage high even while smaller industries are being hit severely. That helps explain why a 94 per cent provincial figure and substantial individual business losses can exist at the same time.

CUSMA Still Provides Protection, but It Is No Longer a Complete Shield

The Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement remains an important reason many Canadian products can cross the border without the additional duties applied elsewhere. Canadian government guidance says goods qualifying for preferential CUSMA treatment generally continue to receive exemptions from major U.S. tariff measures. That has helped keep the effective tariff burden on Canadian trade far below what headline tariff rates might suggest.

The problem is that the newer Section 338 actions do not necessarily respect that protection. Ottawa says Washington’s targeted 50 per cent Section 338 duties on selected Canadian products were imposed without an exemption simply because a product complies with CUSMA rules. In practical terms, an exporter can no longer assume that meeting North American origin requirements guarantees protection from every new trade measure. For Saskatchewan businesses, the distinction matters enormously: a commodity outside the targeted lists may continue moving normally, while a manufacturer selling a specifically identified product can suddenly face an entirely different cost structure.

For Honey and Furniture Businesses, the Provincial Average Offers Little Comfort

A province-wide statistic can obscure what happens at the loading dock of an individual exporter. Moe identified honey and wooden furniture as examples of Saskatchewan products facing increased U.S. tariff pressure. Those industries are much smaller than Saskatchewan’s oil or potash sectors, but companies inside them still have payrolls, suppliers, customers and investment plans built around expectations of reasonably predictable North American trade.

A major tariff can force a business into choices that have nothing abstract about them. The exporter may absorb part of the additional cost and accept lower margins, ask an American customer to pay more, search for a new market or reduce production if an order no longer makes economic sense. That is why Moe simultaneously describes the net provincial impact as relatively small and acknowledges disproportionate hardship. Ninety-four per cent tariff-free trade is reassuring at the macroeconomic level. For an exporter whose particular product sits inside the other six per cent, however, the relevant exposure can effectively be 100 per cent of its U.S. business.

Saskatchewan Is Retaliating on Alcohol Even While Moe Calls for Free Trade

Saskatchewan is not sitting entirely outside Canada’s retaliatory response. The provincial government imposed a 50 per cent levy on U.S.-origin alcohol ordered through the Saskatchewan Liquor and Gaming Authority system beginning September 8. Provincial brewers and distillers publicly backed the measure, arguing that higher prices on American products could encourage consumers to consider Saskatchewan-made alternatives.

The measure also illustrates how quickly retaliation can generate another round of retaliation. The Trump administration has specifically cited Canadian provincial treatment of U.S. alcohol when defending its actions against Canadian alcoholic beverages. Washington’s September 8 proclamation moves certain Canadian alcohol products from an additional tariff toward outright exclusion from the U.S. market beginning September 29. Moe’s position therefore contains an unavoidable tension shared by governments throughout trade disputes: Saskatchewan says tariffs ultimately hurt businesses and families on both sides of the border, while simultaneously using a tariff-like levy in an attempt to create negotiating pressure.

Saskatchewan Entered the Escalation With Some Economic Momentum

The broader provincial economy has shown resilience despite the months of international trade uncertainty. Saskatchewan’s merchandise exports totalled approximately $24.4 billion during the first six months of 2026, an increase of 11.6 per cent compared with the same period in 2025. The province ranked second among Canadian provinces for year-to-date export growth at the time those figures were released.

Other indicators also provide context for Moe’s relatively confident tone. Saskatchewan’s real GDP reached approximately $85.4 billion in 2025, up 2.2 per cent, while its seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 6.0 per cent in August 2026, below the national rate of 6.4 per cent. None of those figures guarantees protection if the trade confrontation expands. They do suggest, however, that Saskatchewan is entering the latest round from a stronger position than a province already experiencing widespread export contraction. The crucial question is whether tariff exposure remains concentrated or spreads into the commodities responsible for much of that resilience.

Export Diversification Is Becoming Economic Insurance

Moe’s response emphasized not only restoring unrestricted U.S. trade but expanding Saskatchewan’s business with other countries. That strategy was already visible before the latest confrontation. In 2025, exports outside Saskatchewan’s three largest markets grew 27.1 per cent, while countries including Brazil, Mexico, Japan, Indonesia and the Netherlands recorded significant increases in purchases from the province.

The timing of Moe’s latest comments is particularly revealing. He has been in the United Kingdom on a trade and investment mission centred on Saskatchewan’s nuclear sector and the World Nuclear Symposium. Provincial data show Saskatchewan exports to the U.K. rose from $211.5 million in 2021 to $587.6 million in 2025, an increase of 177.9 per cent, with uranium accounting for 57.1 per cent of 2025 exports to that market. Those numbers do not make the United States replaceable—the U.S. market is vastly larger—but they show what diversification looks like in practice: creating enough alternative customers that access to one border is no longer the only path to growth.

The Political Argument Is Over Whether 94% Is Reassuring Enough

Moe’s assessment has already drawn a sharply different interpretation from Saskatchewan’s opposition. NDP Leader Carla Beck accused the premier of downplaying the consequences of the American measures and argued that Saskatchewan workers and companies facing direct exposure require a stronger response. Her criticism highlights the political difficulty surrounding percentages such as 94 per cent: governments naturally focus on the broad economy, while affected businesses experience the dispute at the individual level.

Ottawa has chosen a more expansive retaliatory strategy. Canadian counter-tariffs covering approximately $27.6 billion of U.S. imports took effect September 8, with rates of 15, 25 or 50 per cent depending on the product. The federal government has also announced $7.5 billion in new or expanded assistance for Canadian workers and businesses affected by U.S. tariffs, building on earlier support measures. The debate in Saskatchewan is therefore not simply over whether tariffs cause damage. It is over how aggressively governments should retaliate and how much assistance should be directed toward the minority of exporters absorbing most of the immediate cost.

The Bigger Risk Is What Happens to the Remaining 94%

For Saskatchewan, the most important number may eventually be not the six per cent currently exposed, but whether Washington expands its measures into the other 94 per cent. CUSMA’s first joint review took place on July 1, 2026. Canada and Mexico supported extending the agreement for another 16-year term, but the United States declined to approve an extension at that stage. The agreement remains in force, with the countries moving into an annual review process, leaving businesses with continued market access but greater uncertainty about North America’s long-term trading framework.

That uncertainty is why Moe’s 94 per cent figure should be treated as a snapshot rather than a permanent guarantee. Saskatchewan has deep U.S. exposure precisely because decades of relatively open trade made cross-border commerce efficient. Trump’s recent willingness to use Section 338 restrictions and federal procurement measures demonstrates how quickly the rules can change. For now, most Saskatchewan exports are still entering the United States tariff-free. Preserving that access—and restoring it for the businesses already excluded—has become one of the province’s most consequential economic challenges.

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