Quebec Liberals Hit 22% as Conservatives Catch Governing CAQ at 17%: New Poll

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Quebec’s provincial campaign has entered its final stretch with a dramatically more crowded battle behind the front-running Parti Québécois. A new Synopsis–La Presse poll puts the Quebec Liberals at 22 per cent, while the governing Coalition Avenir Québec and Éric Duhaime’s Conservative Party of Quebec are tied at 17 per cent. The Parti Québécois remains ahead at 30 per cent, with Québec solidaire at 13 per cent. The poll was conducted online among 1,000 Quebec adults from September 24 to 27, just as advance voting was beginning. Quebecers vote in the provincial general election on October 5, with advance polling scheduled for September 27 and 28.

The Race Behind the PQ Has Changed Quickly

The most striking feature of the new numbers is not simply that the Liberals occupy second place. It is how much movement has occurred beneath them. Synopsis now measures the PQ at 30 per cent, the PLQ at 22, the CAQ and PCQ at 17 each, and Québec solidaire at 13. Compared with the previous Synopsis–La Presse poll conducted September 10 to 13, the PQ is up two points, the Liberals are unchanged, the CAQ is down seven, the Conservatives are up three and QS is up two.

That distinction matters when interpreting the Liberal number. Charles Milliard’s party did not move from 22 per cent in the previous Synopsis poll; instead, the CAQ moved from 24 per cent to 17. The result is a rearranged contest for second place rather than evidence from this particular poll of a fresh Liberal jump. Meanwhile, the PCQ’s movement from 14 to 17 per cent puts Éric Duhaime’s party level with the governing CAQ in province-wide voting intentions for this poll.

The Liberals Are at 22% — but Their Position Is More Complicated Than It Looks

For the Quebec Liberals, 22 per cent represents a considerably stronger position than the party recorded in the 2022 provincial election, when it received 14.37 per cent of valid ballots and nevertheless elected 21 members. That historical comparison does not mean the same result would occur in 2026, but it illustrates how different the political landscape has become over four years. Charles Milliard, who became Liberal leader by acclamation in 2026, now enters the final days of the campaign with his party second in the newest Synopsis poll.

The Liberals also continue to display a highly regional support pattern. The latest Synopsis findings put the PLQ at 38 per cent on the Island of Montreal, where Québec solidaire is second at 22 per cent. A September 19 Pallas Data poll told a similar story, measuring Liberal support at 36 per cent on the island and 51 per cent among non-francophone respondents. That concentration can be politically important under Quebec’s riding-based voting system, even when province-wide support remains far below 30 per cent.

The CAQ’s Seven-Point Decline Is the Poll’s Largest Movement

The CAQ’s change is the biggest shift recorded between the two most recent Synopsis waves. Christine Fréchette’s party stood at 24 per cent in the September 10-to-13 poll and is now measured at 17 per cent. Synopsis also found a deterioration on the leadership question: Fréchette dropped six percentage points when respondents were asked who would make the best premier. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, by comparison, reached 26 per cent on that measure in the latest poll. Those figures describe voter responses to a polling question, not an independent assessment of either leader.

The shift is particularly notable because Fréchette only became Quebec’s premier in the spring. She was sworn in on April 15, 2026, succeeding the previous CAQ government under François Legault’s leadership. The historical contrast is large: the CAQ captured 40.98 per cent of valid ballots and elected 90 members in the 2022 general election. Comparing an election result with a single 2026 poll has obvious limitations, but it provides context for the scale of the governing party’s changed political position.

The Conservatives Have Pulled Level With the Governing Party

Éric Duhaime’s Conservatives are measured at 17 per cent in the latest Synopsis poll, three points higher than the firm recorded roughly two weeks earlier. That puts the PCQ even with the CAQ province-wide and only five points behind the Liberals. Another recent poll, conducted by Léger from September 18 to 21, also placed the Conservatives at 17 per cent, while a September 19 Pallas Data poll had them at 16 per cent. The exact standings vary by firm, but recent polling has repeatedly placed the PCQ in the mid-to-high teens.

Geography is especially important to understanding that support. Synopsis measured the PCQ at 31 per cent in the Quebec City region, one point ahead of the PQ there. Pallas Data also measured the Conservatives at 31 per cent in that region on September 19 and reported similar numbers in its two preceding waves. In 2022, the PCQ received 12.91 per cent of the province-wide vote but elected no MNAs. The regional distribution of its 2026 support therefore matters at least as much as its provincial percentage.

The PQ Remains Ahead at 30%

While much of the movement concerns the CAQ, Liberals and Conservatives, the Parti Québécois remains in first place in the newest Synopsis poll at 30 per cent. That is two percentage points above the firm’s mid-September result. The same poll reports particularly strong PQ support among francophone respondents, at 36 per cent, as well as a lead among voters aged 35 and older. In Montreal’s suburbs, Synopsis measured the PQ at 32 per cent, ahead of the Liberals and CAQ.

Other recent pollsters have placed the PQ at similar levels. Léger measured it at 29 per cent in fieldwork conducted September 18 to 21, while Pallas Data recorded 28 per cent on September 19. Pallas also found the PQ leading in the Montreal suburbs at 31 per cent in that wave. The consistency of those province-wide readings is noteworthy, although none should be treated as an election result. Polls measure opinions during a specific field period and can differ because of sampling, weighting, turnout assumptions and other methodological choices.

Montreal and Younger Voters Tell a Very Different Story

The provincial totals hide substantial differences between regions and age groups. On the Island of Montreal, Synopsis puts the Liberals first at 38 per cent and Québec solidaire second at 22 per cent. Outside that Liberal stronghold, the political picture changes sharply. The PQ leads in the Montreal suburbs with 32 per cent, while the Quebec City region has a much stronger Conservative presence, with the PCQ measured at 31 per cent.

Age produces another divide. Synopsis reports Québec solidaire at 25 per cent among respondents aged 18 to 34, making it the strongest party within that particular age group in the poll. Among respondents aged 35 to 54, the PQ was measured at 32 per cent while the Conservatives were near one-quarter of support. The PQ also performed strongly among respondents 55 and older. These subgroup results help explain why parties with similar province-wide percentages can have very different geographic and demographic bases. They should also be treated with greater caution than the full provincial numbers because subgroup samples are smaller and therefore inherently less precise.

Other Polls Support the Broad Picture, but Not Every Number

The latest Synopsis poll is particularly difficult for the CAQ, but it is useful to compare it with other firms before treating 17 per cent as a precise measure of the party’s support. Léger’s September 18-to-21 poll had the PQ at 29 per cent, Liberals at 23, CAQ at 20, Conservatives at 17 and Québec solidaire at 10. Pallas Data’s September 19 poll placed the PQ at 28, the Liberals and CAQ at 22 each, the PCQ at 16 and QS at 11.

Across those three recent polls, some patterns are relatively consistent: the PQ is measured between 28 and 30 per cent, the Liberals between 22 and 23 and the Conservatives between 16 and 17. The CAQ shows a wider range of 17 to 22 per cent, while QS ranges from 10 to 13. Polling organizations can produce somewhat different numbers even when measuring the same electorate. The American Association for Public Opinion Research notes that polling averages can reduce some of the normal variation found in individual polls and that sampling error is only one of several possible sources of polling error.

Quebec’s Electoral System Means Provincial Percentages Only Tell Part of the Story

Quebec’s 2026 election will be fought across 127 electoral divisions, up from 125 in 2022 following changes to the provincial electoral map. The province uses first-past-the-post voting: the candidate receiving the most votes in each riding wins that seat, regardless of whether the candidate receives more than 50 per cent. A party needs 64 of the 127 seats for a majority in the National Assembly. That system makes the location of a party’s support critical when interpreting province-wide polling numbers.

The 2022 result offers a clear historical example. The CAQ won 90 seats with 40.98 per cent of valid ballots, while the Liberals won 21 seats with 14.37 per cent. Québec solidaire received 15.43 per cent and elected 11 members; the PQ received 14.61 per cent and elected three; and the Conservatives received 12.91 per cent without winning a seat. Those results belong to a different election, with different leaders, boundaries and voter conditions, but they demonstrate why a tie at 17 per cent province-wide does not automatically translate into equal numbers of seats. With advance voting taking place September 27 and 28 and election day set for October 5, the newest poll is best understood as a late-campaign snapshot of a race still being decided riding by riding.

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