Liberals Lead Conservatives 46% to 34% as Trump Trade Fight Reshapes Canada’s Political Divide

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Canada’s political landscape is being shaped by an unusual combination of household pressure and international conflict. A new Abacus Data poll puts the Liberals at 46% among committed voters, compared with 34% for the Conservatives, while concern about Donald Trump and his administration remains one of the country’s most frequently cited issues. Yet the numbers reveal something more complicated than a simple shift toward one party. Cost of living remains Canadians’ biggest concern, younger voters look considerably different from older voters, and the Conservatives retain substantial advantages on several domestic issues. The emerging divide increasingly appears to run between voters focused on managing an unpredictable relationship with Washington and those placing greater weight on affordability, immigration, crime and employment.

The 46–34 Split Is Significant, but It Is Still a Snapshot

Abacus Data’s latest national tracking puts the Liberals at 46% among committed voters, 12 percentage points ahead of the Conservatives at 34%. The NDP sits at 9%, the Bloc Québécois at 7%, the Greens at 2%, and the People’s Party at 1%. The gap has actually narrowed slightly from the previous Abacus wave, when the Liberals stood at 47% and the Conservatives at 33%. Among respondents who said they were certain to vote, Abacus found a somewhat different distribution: 49% Liberal, 33% Conservative, 8% NDP and 7% Bloc. Those numbers describe current voting intention rather than a forecast of an eventual election result.

The poll was conducted from September 18 to 23 with 2,744 Canadian adults recruited through online partner panels. Abacus weighted the results using census benchmarks for age, gender, education and region. Because the research used an online panel rather than a conventional probability sample, Abacus describes its reported ±1.87-point figure as the margin of error that a comparable probability sample of that size would have, 19 times out of 20. Undecided respondents were removed from the published party shares. Those methodological details matter when interpreting small changes of one or two points between waves.

Trump Is a Major Issue Without Replacing the Cost-of-Living Debate

The political importance of the Canada-U.S. confrontation becomes clearer when Canadians are asked what matters most. In the Abacus poll, 63% named the rising cost of living as one of the three most important issues facing the country. Donald Trump and his administration came second at 44%, ahead of the economy at 37%, healthcare at 31%, housing affordability at 27% and immigration at 21%. In other words, the American relationship has moved near the centre of Canadian politics, but affordability remains the more widely shared concern.

Other polling has identified a similar rise in attention to the United States, although different question wording produces different percentages. Nanos Research reported on September 22 that relations with the United States and the economy ranked among Canadians’ leading national concerns while its rolling federal ballot tracking had the Liberals at 48.1%, Conservatives at 31.0% and NDP at 11.2%. That does not prove the trade fight caused the partisan numbers, but multiple polls show the two developments occurring at the same time. Quebec is particularly notable in the Abacus data: 59% there selected Trump as a top-three issue, compared with 56% selecting cost of living.

The Parties Draw Strength From Very Different Issues

The sharpest evidence of a changing political divide appears when respondents are asked which party they believe would handle specific issues best. Among people who ranked Trump and his administration as one of their top three concerns, 68% selected the Liberals and 14% selected the Conservatives. The same poll found a much closer split on the broader economy, at 41% Liberal and 39% Conservative among respondents concerned about that issue. Healthcare produced a 34% to 20% Liberal split. These are assessments from respondents concerned about each particular issue, rather than percentages of the entire electorate.

The pattern changes considerably on other files. Among those concerned about immigration, 59% selected the Conservatives as best able to handle the issue, compared with 14% for the Liberals. Crime and public safety produced a 50% Conservative to 21% Liberal split, while job security and unemployment stood at 42% Conservative and 26% Liberal. Cost of living was almost evenly divided, 32% Conservative to 31% Liberal, while housing affordability was 29% Conservative to 27% Liberal. The result is less a uniform movement in one direction than two overlapping political conversations: one centred heavily on the U.S. relationship and another built around domestic economic and social concerns.

The Trade Fight Has Moved From Political Rhetoric to Real Tariffs

The dispute with Washington is not an abstract campaign issue. Prime Minister Mark Carney suspended Canada-U.S. trade negotiations on August 21 after saying late changes to the proposed U.S. terms were unacceptable to his government. Canada subsequently announced new counter-tariffs of 15%, 25% and 50% on U.S. goods covering approximately $27.6 billion in imports, effective September 8. Ottawa said the measures were designed to match U.S. tariffs affecting an equivalent value of Canadian goods. The Canadian list includes products in sectors such as steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics.

Washington responded as well. On September 8, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative said President Trump had used Section 338 authority to ban certain Canadian products and modify previously announced trade measures. The Canadian and American governments have offered sharply different descriptions of responsibility for the breakdown: Ottawa says the requested concessions were economically unacceptable, while U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer accused Canada of walking away from a near-final agreement and retaliating against American exports. Those competing accounts underline why the dispute has become politically salient inside Canada: businesses, workers and consumers are watching an international disagreement translate into tariffs, disrupted trade and uncertainty over market access.

Younger and Older Canadians Are Looking at Politics Very Differently

Age may be one of the most consequential divides inside the national numbers. Among respondents aged 18 to 29 in the Abacus poll, the Conservatives were at 42%, Liberals at 32% and NDP at 15%. Among Canadians aged 30 to 44, Conservatives stood at 39%, Liberals at 36% and the NDP at 14%. The pattern reverses beginning with middle-aged and older respondents: Liberals registered 47% among those aged 45 to 59, compared with 35% Conservative, while the difference among Canadians 60 and older was 59% Liberal to 26% Conservative.

Those numbers complicate any description of the current Liberal lead as a broad movement affecting every type of voter in the same way. The Conservatives remain considerably stronger with younger adults in this particular poll, while Liberal strength is concentrated much more heavily among older Canadians. Abacus also found gender differences that were smaller than the age gap: the Liberals were at 45% and Conservatives at 36% among men, compared with 48% Liberal and 32% Conservative among women. These subgroup findings carry more sampling uncertainty than national results, but they show how a 12-point national gap can conceal very different political environments depending on age and demographic group.

Canada’s Regional Political Map Remains Uneven

There is no single regional story behind the national numbers either. Abacus reported the Liberals at 51% in Ontario compared with 34% for the Conservatives. Atlantic Canada showed a 53% Liberal to 32% Conservative split, while British Columbia was closer at 45% Liberal and 37% Conservative. Quebec produced a three-party picture: 44% Liberal, 31% Bloc Québécois and 20% Conservative. These regions collectively make up a large share of Canada’s population, helping explain how the national Liberal figure can reach the mid-40s even while other parts of the country look substantially different.

Alberta remains the clearest contrast, with the Conservatives at 54% and Liberals at 34% in the latest Abacus results. Saskatchewan and Manitoba were much closer, at 44% Liberal and 41% Conservative. Issue priorities also differ across regions. Cost of living was selected by 68% in both Alberta and British Columbia and 70% in Atlantic Canada. Trump and his administration were named by 59% in Quebec but 36% in Alberta and 37% in both British Columbia and Saskatchewan-Manitoba. The national political divide therefore reflects not just party identification, but regional differences in which problems voters are placing near the top of their agendas.

The Government Scores Better on U.S. Relations Than on Domestic Pressures

The same Abacus research shows an important difference between overall government approval and evaluations of individual policy areas. Sixty percent said they approved of the job being done by the federal government led by Carney, while 25% disapproved and 15% were neutral. On Canada’s relationship with the United States specifically, 57% approved of the government’s handling of the file. National defence and security followed at 52%. Those were the only individual areas measured by Abacus where approval reached a majority.

Assessments were notably weaker on several issues Canadians encounter much closer to home. Approval stood at 43% for jobs and economic growth, 38% for cost of living and inflation, and 33% for housing affordability and supply. Immigration, crime and public safety, and the federal deficit and government spending each registered 37% approval. Leader-impression questions showed another division: 56% reported a positive impression of Carney and 25% a negative one, while 34% reported a positive impression of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and 45% a negative one. These are measurements of public opinion, not independent assessments of either leader’s competence or performance.

The Lead Is Larger Than the 2025 Election Gap, but the Electorate Is Not Settled

The scale of the current polling difference stands out when compared with the last federal election. Elections Canada’s official results show that the Liberals received 43.8% of valid votes in April 2025, while the Conservatives received 41.3%—a national gap of just 2.5 percentage points. The NDP received 6.3%. The latest Abacus figures therefore show a much wider Liberal-Conservative separation than the one recorded at the ballot box in 2025, although polling and election results are fundamentally different measurements and should not be treated as interchangeable.

Abacus is also not alone in finding a double-digit Liberal lead. Nanos reported 48.1% Liberal and 31.0% Conservative in its September 22 release; Liaison Strategies reported 45% to 31% in data released September 21; and Angus Reid found 46% Liberal to 32% Conservative in research conducted September 2–7. At the same time, the latest Abacus poll found 57% of respondents still chose one of two options saying it was time for a change in government, including 33% who said a good alternative existed and 24% who wanted change but did not see a good alternative. The safest reading is therefore not an election prediction, but a description of the current environment: the Liberals hold a substantial polling advantage while affordability concerns, generational differences and competing views of domestic policy continue to leave significant political divisions in place.

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