B.C. Conservatives Jump to 43% as Two-Thirds of Voters Reject Eby’s Early-Election Decision: Poll

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British Columbia’s snap election campaign has opened with a dramatic shift in one major opinion poll. Just days after NDP Leader David Eby called an early election for October 24, the Angus Reid Institute found the B.C. Conservatives ahead among decided and leaning voters, with 43% support compared with 35% for the governing NDP. The resistance to the timing of the vote may be just as significant: 62% of respondents said it was too soon for an election, while 65% believed Eby was putting staying in power ahead of the province’s interests.

Those numbers give the opening days of the campaign an unexpectedly unsettled feel. But the same research also shows considerable uncertainty about the Conservatives and a large pool of voters whose decisions remain far from final.

An Eight-Point Conservative Lead Changes the Opening Conversation

The Angus Reid Institute survey, conducted from September 22 to 24, put the B.C. Conservatives at 43% among decided and leaning voters, eight percentage points ahead of the NDP at 35%. The finding represents a sharp change from Angus Reid’s own polling earlier in September, when the NDP held a narrow advantage. The Conservative figure is also striking because 43% is almost identical to the party’s 43.28% share of the province-wide popular vote in the October 2024 election.

The NDP’s 35% result, however, would be substantially below its 44.87% share of the popular vote in 2024. That does not mean the election has settled into an eight-point Conservative race. Polls measure opinion at the time respondents are contacted, and this particular survey was taken during an unusually turbulent period that included the election call itself and major changes inside the Conservative opposition. The most defensible reading is therefore that the campaign began with considerable voter movement—not that its final outcome has already been determined.

Opposition to the Election Timing Reaches Beyond Conservative Supporters

The most difficult number for the NDP may not be the 43% Conservative vote intention. Angus Reid found 62% of British Columbians believed it was “too soon” to hold another provincial election, compared with just 21% who considered the timing appropriate. The dissatisfaction was predictable among Conservative supporters, 71% of whom said the election came too soon, but it also extended into the governing party’s own coalition: 52% of B.C. NDP supporters shared that view.

Respondents were also asked about Eby’s motivation. Sixty-five per cent said they believed he was putting an effort to remain in power ahead of the interests of British Columbia, including 51% of people who had voted NDP in 2024. Those findings measure public perceptions rather than establish Eby’s motive as fact. Eby has given a different explanation, arguing that escalating economic pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump and the trade conflict created what he described as an “existential moment” requiring British Columbians to choose the province’s direction.

The NDP Is Having More Trouble Holding Its 2024 Voters

Angus Reid’s detailed results suggest part of the NDP’s problem comes from voters who supported the party only two years ago but are now uncertain or considering alternatives. Among respondents who voted NDP in 2024, 62% said they currently intended to support the party again. By comparison, 80% of 2024 Conservative voters said they were sticking with the Conservatives. Sixteen per cent of previous NDP voters were undecided, twice the 8% figure recorded among previous Conservative voters.

That matters because the last provincial election left very little room for significant defections. Elections BC recorded 944,579 votes for the NDP in 2024, or 44.87% of valid ballots, while the Conservatives received 911,153 votes, or 43.28%. The result produced 47 NDP MLAs, 44 Conservatives and two Greens in the 93-seat legislature. Turnout was 58.45% of registered voters. A relatively small movement between parties—or toward smaller parties and undecided status—can therefore alter the competitive landscape considerably when the two largest parties began from such a close baseline.

The Conservatives’ Lead Comes With a Major Warning of Its Own

The survey does not amount to an uncomplicated endorsement of the Conservatives. Despite giving the party an eight-point lead in vote intention, 56% of respondents told Angus Reid they did not believe the B.C. Conservatives were ready to govern. Even 22% of current Conservative supporters expressed that reservation. Interim leader Lorne Doerkson also begins the campaign without the province-wide familiarity enjoyed by Eby: 40% of respondents said they did not know enough about Doerkson to form either a positive or negative impression.

That uncertainty follows months of instability inside the opposition. Kerry-Lynne Findlay resigned as Conservative leader on September 20 after only 113 days in the position, and Doerkson was appointed interim leader. Five legislators who had recently left or been removed from the Conservative caucus returned after the leadership change, and seven members of the breakaway CentreBC subsequently rejoined the Conservatives after the election was called. Those developments rapidly consolidated much of the opposition vote under one banner, but they also leave voters evaluating a recently reunited political organization in the middle of an active campaign.

Cost of Living and Health Care Are Outranking the U.S. Fight

Eby has put the threat from Trump and the Canada-U.S. trade conflict near the centre of his explanation for calling the election. Yet Angus Reid’s results indicate that voters are entering the campaign with a broader and more domestically focused set of concerns. Fifty-nine per cent identified the cost of living or inflation as one of their most important election issues, followed by health care at 42%, the economy and jobs at 28%, housing affordability at 25%, public safety at 25% and the provincial deficit or government spending at 24%. U.S. tariffs, Trump and related cross-border issues were selected by 15%.

Separate Ipsos research conducted from September 8 to 14 painted a similar picture before the writ was issued. Ipsos found cost of living and inflation at 56%, health care at 40% and housing at 34%, while jobs and the economy and U.S. trade issues each registered at 19%. The two polls asked questions differently, so the percentages should not be treated as directly interchangeable. Still, both point toward household affordability and public services occupying a central place in voters’ minds as the campaign begins.

The Sudden Conservative Reunification Complicated the NDP’s Calculation

The timing of the election call coincided with one of the most unstable periods the provincial Conservatives had experienced since their breakthrough in 2024. Findlay had resigned only two days before Eby went to Government House, and the opposition had been weakened by defections and expulsions. When Eby formally launched the campaign on September 22, however, much of that fragmentation began reversing. Seven CentreBC legislators rejoined the Conservative organization within hours of the call, while Doerkson had already welcomed several former caucus members back.

The rapid consolidation is relevant when interpreting the new poll because voters were being surveyed at almost exactly the moment those political changes were taking place. Angus Reid described the Conservatives as having regained considerable unity heading into the election, although the survey simultaneously showed substantial doubts about whether the party was prepared to govern. The result is an unusual combination: comparatively strong stated vote intention paired with skepticism about the organization seeking power. That tension may become one of the campaign’s defining questions, but polling conducted in its first days cannot establish how voters will ultimately resolve it.

One Poll Is a Snapshot of an Especially Volatile Moment

Other recent polling demonstrates why the 43% Conservative number requires context. A Liaison Strategies survey conducted September 21 and 22—immediately before and during the election call—put the NDP at 41% and Conservatives at 36% among decided and leaning voters. Earlier in the month, Ipsos had the NDP at 45% and Conservatives at 35%, while Angus Reid’s previous September wave showed an NDP advantage of 41% to 37%. The latest Angus Reid survey, fielded September 22 to 24, then produced the opposite result: Conservatives 43%, NDP 35%.

Differences between polls can result from genuine changes in opinion, field dates, questionnaire design, sampling and methodology, so the surveys cannot by themselves establish exactly how much of the movement was caused by Eby’s election call. The newest Angus Reid study surveyed 801 B.C. adults online and weighted responses by demographic factors. Angus Reid notes that a probability sample of the same size would have an equivalent margin of error of about plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The Canadian Research Insights Council cautions that a formal margin of error cannot be calculated for non-probability online samples.

The October 24 election therefore begins with two political realities visible at the same time. Angus Reid’s latest measurement shows a substantial Conservative lead and widespread opposition to the timing of Eby’s election call. Yet one in five respondents remained undecided, only 35% described themselves as very certain about their eventual choice, and a majority questioned whether the Conservatives were ready to govern. With weeks of campaigning still ahead, those figures describe an electorate in motion rather than a settled result.

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