B.C. Premier Made Trump’s Tariffs Central to Election Campaign, but Lumber Country Remains a Tough Sell

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With British Columbians voting on Oct. 24, David Eby’s decision to make Donald Trump and U.S. tariffs the defining threat of the campaign is colliding with a harder political reality in the province’s forestry heartland. The trade pressure is real: Canadian softwood lumber entering the United States can now face a combined duty burden of 34.75% for producers in the broad “all others” category. Yet many Interior communities were watching mills close, shifts disappear and fibre supplies tighten long before the latest escalation from Washington.

That distinction matters politically. Eby is asking voters to see his government as a shield against an external threat. In lumber country, however, the ballot is also becoming a judgment on problems voters believe Victoria can influence directly — forest access, permitting, costs, health care, affordability and whether there will still be a mill job in town a few years from now.

Eby Put Trump at the Centre of the Ballot

Eby called the election on Sept. 22, two years before it was required, arguing that Trump’s trade war had changed conditions in British Columbia enough to justify an early vote. His launch message was unusually explicit for a provincial campaign: resist Trump, protect B.C. jobs and build a “firebreak” against U.S. economic pressure. He urged British Columbians to say “hell no to Trump,” tying that rhetoric to a broader economic plan aimed at finding new export markets, buying Canadian and reducing dependence on the United States. Eby also cited a 4% decline in B.C. exports to the U.S. alongside a 16% increase in exports to other markets, using those figures to argue that diversification was already underway.

The political logic is easy to understand. Trump’s tariffs are threatening major Canadian export industries, while repeated trade confrontations have created uncertainty for businesses and workers. But calling a snap election also invited voters to ask why a government that won 47 of 93 seats and a majority in 2024 needed another mandate in 2026. That leaves every discussion about Washington shadowed by a more provincial question: what has the government done with the powers it already has?

The Lumber Tariff Burden Is Heavy

For B.C. sawmills, the tariff threat is not campaign theatre. In October, the U.S. Department of Commerce finalized new anti-dumping and countervailing duty rates on Canadian softwood lumber. For companies in the broad “all others” category, those two duties combine to 24.75%. A separate 10% Section 232 tariff on timber and softwood lumber can apply on top of them, bringing the total burden to 34.75% for products caught by both regimes. Individual companies face different rates: the combined anti-dumping and countervailing figures are 31.11% for Canfor, 25.55% for Resolute and 20.02% for West Fraser before the additional Section 232 tariff is considered.

Those numbers help explain why Eby has made Washington central to his forestry message. Duties at these levels can affect margins, investment decisions and where companies choose to sell their lumber. The pressure also crosses the border. The U.S. National Association of Home Builders has opposed the lumber tariffs, arguing that they raise construction costs and worsen housing affordability for American consumers. The dispute therefore squeezes Canadian producers while also increasing the cost attached to an important U.S. building material.

Forestry’s Crisis Predates the Latest Trump Escalation

The harder argument for the NDP is that B.C.’s forestry problems cannot be reduced to one president or one tariff schedule. Provincial figures put direct forest-sector employment at 46,150 in 2024 under the Industry Accounts measure, down from about 49,300 in 2022. Earlier provincial Labour Force Survey data showed that 56% of forest-sector employment was in the Interior in 2023. The Interior also accounted for 69% of B.C.’s timber harvest that year. That explains why mill closures carry enormous political weight outside the Lower Mainland: forestry is not simply an export statistic. It means mill paycheques, trucking contracts, equipment repairs and spending at businesses throughout small communities.

Industry figures point to a deeper deterioration. The BC Council of Forest Industries estimates that at least 21 B.C. lumber mills have closed permanently or indefinitely since 2023 and that more than 15,000 forestry jobs have been lost since 2022. In July, Canfor announced the closure of its Northwood pulp mill in Prince George. A month later, the Howe Sound pulp operation was indefinitely curtailed. Industry and government reporting points to several pressures, including fibre shortages, weak global prices, softer demand in Asia, operating costs and trade disputes. Trump’s tariffs added another serious problem, but they arrived after years of upheaval.

Fibre Access Keeps the Debate Focused on Victoria

One number captures why the provincial government remains in the line of fire: B.C.’s timber harvest has fallen sharply. Provincial environmental reporting shows that annual harvest volume declined from about 71 million cubic metres in 2014 to roughly 39 million cubic metres in 2023. Over the longer term, the actual harvest from public lands has generally remained below the allowable annual cut. That does not mean all of the difference represents wood that could immediately or economically be sent to a sawmill. Access, timber quality, natural disturbances, market economics and land-use constraints all influence the supply that can realistically reach manufacturers.

Still, for a company carrying the fixed costs of a large mill and trying to keep crews working, the practical question is straightforward: are enough affordable logs arriving consistently? That is why “fibre access” has become one of the campaign’s most important forestry phrases. It moves the discussion away from Trump — whom no B.C. premier controls — toward permitting, forest management and harvest planning, where Victoria has direct authority. The NDP is promising faster approvals and more predictable fibre. Conservatives are promising the same general objective, but with a more aggressive overhaul. In lumber towns, those provincial levers are tangible enough to compete with Eby’s tariff message.

Grand Forks Shows Why the Message Is Complicated

Grand Forks offers a useful snapshot of this mixed reality. Eby stopped in the community on Oct. 3 during the campaign, where he promoted an affordability proposal focused on grocery prices. Nearby, Interfor’s sawmill represented another kind of household concern. The mill had gone through a difficult period, operating with a single shift of 68 employees after workers were brought back in late 2025. In June 2026, a second shift resumed, with the planer also expected to return to two shifts. Mayor Everett Baker welcomed the improvement but cautioned that the operation still needed sufficient log supply. By Oct. 19, Interfor was advertising again for a Red Seal millwright in Grand Forks, offering a starting rate of $51.245 an hour.

That is neither a simple collapse nor a complete recovery. It is a community watching the same mill move between reduced operations, rehiring and additional shifts while wood supply remains an important concern. The politics are similarly complicated. Grand Forks sits in Boundary-Similkameen, which Conservatives won in 2024 with 48.39% of the vote compared with 42.56% for the NDP. For households whose income can change when a mill loses or gains a shift, an argument about Trump naturally competes with another question: what can Victoria do to keep the local operation competitive?

The Interior Remains a Conservative Stronghold

Late-campaign polling makes the regional divide difficult to ignore. An Angus Reid Institute survey conducted from Oct. 15 to 19 put the Conservatives at 46% and the NDP at 43% among decided and leaning voters, a statistically narrow provincewide race. Regionally, however, Conservatives held a 17-point advantage in the Interior and a 20-point advantage in the Fraser Valley, while the NDP performed best on Vancouver Island and the North Coast. Conservative support also appeared more firmly locked in: 73% of Conservative supporters described themselves as very certain of their choice, compared with 54% of NDP supporters.

The divide becomes even clearer in individual forestry-heavy areas. In Cariboo-Chilcotin, Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson received 69.59% of the vote in 2024, compared with 30.41% for the NDP. A separate Mainstreet Research survey released this week also showed Conservatives ahead provincewide. In Prince George, a Conservative candidate told CKPG that doorstep conversations repeatedly returned to affordability and health care alongside concerns about regional employment, particularly forestry. Trump may be an economic threat, but many Interior voters are simultaneously judging a much broader provincial record.

The NDP Forestry Plan Is More Than an Anti-Trump Slogan

Eby’s forestry platform attempts to answer that criticism with measures extending beyond trade retaliation. The NDP is promising a new $120-million Forestry Jobs Protection Fund over two years for workers, communities and mills at risk of closing. It would also make the B.C. Manufacturing Jobs Fund permanent with $60 million in annual funding and establish a dedicated forestry stream to help mills retrofit, make higher-value products, lower production costs and reach non-U.S. markets. The party is proposing a task force involving industry, labour and government ministries, alongside faster permitting, more consistent access to fibre and continued export diversification.

Those are substantive commitments, but the reception has been qualified. The United Steelworkers, which represents about 10,000 B.C. forestry workers, welcomed the plan while arguing that it does not go far enough to preserve jobs. Western Canada director Scott Lunny has advocated for a forestry jobs protection commissioner with greater authority. Gary Bull, professor emeritus of forestry at the University of British Columbia, has also argued that neither major party is offering a dramatic transformation of forest management and has questioned how the larger job of improving forest health would be financed. The challenge for Eby is therefore not simply presenting a plan, but convincing mill communities that it is large and fast enough.

Conservatives Are Selling Fibre, Permits and a Provincial Reset

The Conservative forestry pitch is deliberately constructed around the things a provincial government can change at home. Doerkson’s party is promising a harvest floor of 45 million cubic metres, faster approvals through a major-project-style permitting process, a single-window system for referrals involving First Nations and lower permitting costs. It has also pledged to extend the Manufacturing Jobs Fund, create more competitive tax conditions for value-added wood manufacturers, establish biomass and bioenergy hubs in Prince George and Kamloops, and prioritize B.C. lumber in government-funded housing and infrastructure.

The sharper distinction lies in how the problem is framed. Conservatives argue that forestry was shrinking before the newest Trump tariffs and that provincial policy has made B.C. an increasingly costly and unpredictable place to operate. The NDP points to its own commitment to work toward a 45-million-cubic-metre economically viable harvest, faster approvals and investments in mill modernization. There is consequently more overlap than the campaign rhetoric might suggest. Both parties acknowledge a wood-supply problem, both support permitting reform, both favour manufacturing assistance and both recognize the need for new markets. The disagreement increasingly comes down to credibility, speed and how B.C.’s working forests should be managed.

Why Trump May Not Be Enough to Win Lumber Country

Eby’s central campaign argument contains a real economic truth: U.S. tariffs can cost B.C. jobs, and no provincial forestry strategy can completely insulate mills from severe pressure in their largest foreign market. A government that ignored Washington would be overlooking one of the industry’s biggest immediate risks. But the Interior’s resistance demonstrates the limit of campaigning primarily against an external opponent. A mill worker can blame Trump for a 10% Section 232 lumber tariff and still hold Victoria responsible for slow approvals, scarce economic fibre or years of uncertainty over forest policy. Those positions are not contradictory.

That is what makes lumber country such a difficult sell for the premier. The election is not simply a referendum on whether Trump is hurting Canada. It is also a judgment on who voters trust to manage an industry that was struggling before the latest trade escalation and now faces domestic and international pressures simultaneously. On the eve of the Oct. 24 vote, Eby needs Interior voters to see his anti-Trump posture as practical economic defence. The Conservatives need those same voters to see forestry’s longer decline as proof that much of the problem is closer to home. The final polling suggests that argument remains powerful where the mills are.

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