Trump Shares B.C. Conservative Election Victory as Eby’s Anti-Tariff Election Gamble Ends in Defeat

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David Eby called British Columbia’s early election arguing the province needed a stronger mandate to withstand Donald Trump’s trade pressure. Barely a month later, the gamble produced almost the opposite political outcome.

The B.C. Conservatives under interim leader Lorne Doerkson are projected to form a commanding majority, Eby is stepping down as NDP leader, and Trump has personally shared news of the Conservative victory on Truth Social. The remarkable sequence has transformed what began as an election partly framed around resisting the U.S. president into one of the most consequential provincial political reversals in decades.

Trump Puts the B.C. Conservative Victory on His Own Feed

Trump added an unusual cross-border dimension to the result on October 25 when his Truth Social account posted a link to a story headlined “Conservative Party wins in British Columbia for first time in almost 100 years.” The linked report highlighted preliminary results showing the Conservatives with 64 of the legislature’s 93 seats and the NDP with 27. Trump did not add a lengthy endorsement, policy message or personal assessment of Doerkson. He simply put the historic Conservative result before his enormous political audience, making an election in Canada’s westernmost province part of his own social-media feed.

The timing was particularly striking because Trump had occupied such a prominent place in Eby’s argument for holding the election in the first place. The B.C. premier had repeatedly warned that Trump’s tariffs and broader approach to Canada threatened workers, businesses and Canadian sovereignty. Now the same American president whom Eby made central to the justification for an early vote was sharing the result that ended Eby’s government. The symbolism is difficult to miss, even though Trump’s post should not be interpreted as proof of a formal relationship with Doerkson or the provincial Conservatives. It was amplification of the victory, rather than a detailed political endorsement.

Eby Made the Trump Threat Central to the Election Call

Eby did not need to send British Columbians back to the polls in 2026. The previous provincial election had taken place in October 2024, when the NDP emerged with 47 of 93 seats, the bare minimum required for a majority. The Conservatives won 44 and the Greens two. Another general election was not scheduled until 2028. Nevertheless, on September 22, Eby went to Government House and triggered an October 24 vote while arguing that circumstances had changed dramatically because of the escalating economic confrontation with the United States.

His language left little ambiguity about the initial strategy. Eby described the confrontation with Trump as an “existential moment,” accused the U.S. president of attacking Canadian workers and businesses, and argued B.C. needed to reduce its dependence on the American market. He also spoke of creating a political and economic “firebreak” against Trump-style politics and urged voters to reject the U.S. president’s approach. It was an attempt to turn an international trade dispute into a provincial mandate question: which government could best protect B.C. from external economic pressure? But calling the election also exposed Eby to a simpler question—why hold an unnecessary vote when his government already had the seats to govern?

Affordability Overtook the Tariff Fight as the Campaign Developed

The difficulty for the NDP was that Trump was never the dominant concern for most voters. An Angus Reid Institute survey conducted early in the campaign found that by the beginning of October only 10 per cent of respondents identified U.S. tariffs, Trump or B.C.’s American alcohol ban as one of the most important factors in determining their vote. Cost of living led at 57 per cent and health care followed at 42 per cent, while the economy, housing, the provincial deficit and public safety also ranked above the Trump issue.

Ipsos polling told a similar story. Its October survey placed cost of living and inflation at 57 per cent among the issues British Columbians most wanted leaders to address, followed by health care at 39 per cent and housing affordability and availability at 30 per cent. By October 7, Canadian Press reporting described the NDP campaign as having moved away from its original emphasis on Trump and toward affordability. Eby acknowledged that not everyone shared his level of concern about the U.S. president. That pivot mattered politically. A campaign initially presented as an urgent response to an external threat increasingly became a conventional provincial contest about household costs, health services, economic management and whether voters wanted continued NDP government.

Doerkson Rebuilt a Party That Looked Close to Breaking Apart

Perhaps the most extraordinary part of the result is where the Conservatives stood immediately before the election was called. Kerry-Lynne Findlay resigned as Conservative leader on September 20 after months of internal conflict, defections and expulsions. Thirteen legislators had quit the caucus or been expelled during the upheaval. Former leader John Rustad and other senior figures had themselves been pushed out before Findlay stepped aside. The Official Opposition that had come within three seats of government in 2024 appeared fractured at precisely the moment rumours of a snap election intensified.

Doerkson was installed as interim leader after returning from a trip to Africa and almost immediately began bringing former Conservative legislators back into the fold. Seven politicians who had only recently aligned themselves with CentreBC ultimately returned to the Conservatives. Two days after Doerkson took over, Eby called the election. The speed of what followed was remarkable: Doerkson went from a relatively low-profile Cariboo-Chilcotin MLA to premier-designate in little more than a month. He had originally entered the legislature in 2020 under the B.C. Liberal banner and crossed to the Conservatives in 2024. The provincial campaign therefore became less a contest against a collapsing opposition than Eby may have anticipated and more a vehicle for its sudden reunification.

Preliminary Results Show the Scale of the Political Reversal

The preliminary numbers make clear that this was not merely a narrow change of government. As of Elections BC’s early October 25 update, with 99.57 per cent of ballot boxes reporting, Conservatives were leading in 64 ridings with 48.05 per cent of the provincial vote. The NDP was leading in 27 with 37.38 per cent, while the Greens were ahead in two with 10.97 per cent. A majority requires 47 seats. Those figures remain preliminary because mail, assisted telephone and certain absentee ballots are included during subsequent counting, but the Conservative advantage is far beyond the threshold required to form government.

The contrast with 2024 is dramatic. In that election the NDP won 47 seats to the Conservatives’ 44, with Eby holding the narrowest possible majority. Preliminary turnout in 2026 stood at 48.06 per cent, compared with an official turnout of 58.45 per cent in 2024. Eby appears to have retained his own Vancouver-Point Grey seat, where preliminary results showed him at 42.92 per cent against Conservative Alex McMillan at 39.96 per cent. But personally surviving the Conservative surge could not save his leadership. On election night, Eby accepted responsibility for the loss and announced he would resign as NDP leader.

Voters Have Also Chosen a Substantially Different Economic Agenda

The change in government is likely to matter well beyond political branding. Doerkson’s Conservatives campaigned on an economic program built around tax reductions, faster project approvals and substantially greater natural-resource development. One of their most visible affordability promises was to raise B.C.’s basic personal income-tax exemption to $32,000, which the party says would reduce provincial income taxes by as much as $1,000 annually for many working residents and roughly $2,000 for a typical two-income household.

Energy policy could produce an even more significant shift. The Conservatives pledged to double natural-gas production by 2032 and triple it by 2035 while accelerating major-project approvals and pursuing additional LNG investment. Their platform also calls for repealing B.C.’s Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act and replacing elements of the NDP’s regulatory approach. The party’s costed platform projected a $10.8-billion deficit by 2030 and relied partly on stronger economic growth and natural-gas revenues to finance tax reductions and spending commitments. Those assumptions will now face the harder test of governing, budgeting and implementation. Winning an election on ambitious growth promises is different from translating them into investment, new projects and balanced public finances.

Trump’s Post Does Not Make Doerkson a Trump Ally

There is an important complication in interpreting Trump’s decision to share the result. During the campaign, Doerkson was not presenting himself as a defender of the U.S. president. He publicly described Trump as an “absolute bully” and argued that the correct response was to make British Columbia economically stronger rather than rely on political messaging. That position undercuts any simple interpretation that B.C. voters chose a Trump-aligned provincial government after rejecting an anti-Trump premier.

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s response also pointed toward a more Canadian political dynamic. Carney congratulated Doerkson and said he wanted to work with the incoming premier on housing, economic growth and turning Canada into an energy superpower. That creates areas of potential collaboration between Ottawa and Victoria even as difficult disputes over environmental regulation, Indigenous rights and energy infrastructure are likely to remain. Trump’s Truth Social post adds a striking final twist to Eby’s failed gamble, but the election itself appears to have been driven by a broader combination of affordability pressures, dissatisfaction with the incumbent government and the Conservatives’ rapid political recovery. Eby tried to make Trump part of the ballot. British Columbians ultimately delivered a verdict shaped much closer to home.

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