Quebec Liberals and Conservatives Clash Over Fossil Fuels as U.S. Trade War Dominates Economic Debate

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Quebec’s election campaign is increasingly being fought around a question that would have seemed politically settled only a few years ago: should the province reconsider developing its own fossil-fuel resources?

That divide came into sharper focus during Radio-Canada’s September 17 economic debate, where representatives of the Quebec Liberal Party and Conservative Party of Quebec offered markedly different answers. Conservative Adrien Pouliot defended natural-gas development as a way to create wealth and reduce exposure to the United States, while Liberal Michel Leblanc argued Quebec should look instead to mining, critical minerals and diversified export markets. Behind the exchange was a much larger concern. With tariffs escalating, Canadian countermeasures expanding and Quebec businesses confronting a less predictable American market, energy policy has become part of a broader argument about economic security.

The U.S. Trade War Has Changed the Economic Conversation

The timing of the fossil-fuel debate was difficult to separate from events south of the border. Just one day before the Radio-Canada exchange, U.S. President Donald Trump signed a memorandum directing American officials to take steps toward removing Canadian-origin goods from federal civilian procurement. The White House presented the move as retaliation for Canadian purchasing policies, adding another source of uncertainty for companies accustomed to treating the U.S. market as an extension of their own.

Canada, meanwhile, had already escalated its response. Counter-tariffs of 15%, 25% and 50% took effect September 8 on $27.6 billion worth of U.S. imports after Washington imposed new tariffs on an equivalent value of Canadian goods. Steel, aluminum, dairy, machinery, pulp and paper and electronics are among the sectors caught in the widening dispute. For Quebec politicians, that has transformed economic resilience from a campaign slogan into a question affecting factories, payrolls and investment decisions in real time.

Conservatives Make Natural Gas Part of Their Anti-Tariff Strategy

The Conservative Party of Quebec has placed domestic natural gas directly inside its response to the trade conflict. Éric Duhaime and economic spokesperson Adrien Pouliot proposed reopening Quebec to development of the Utica shale formation, arguing that locally produced gas could reduce dependence on external suppliers while producing investment, jobs and government revenue. The party has explicitly described the proposal as part of its anti-tariff plan.

The argument draws on an important feature of Quebec’s energy economy. Hydroelectricity dominates electricity production, but electricity is not the province’s only energy source. HEC Montréal’s State of Energy in Quebec estimated natural gas at roughly 13% of total energy consumption in its 2022 data, alongside a much larger petroleum share. The Conservatives contend that continuing to consume gas while refusing to produce it locally leaves economic activity dependent on supplies originating outside Quebec. Critics counter that developing new production would reverse years of provincial energy and climate policy and reopen a deeply contentious environmental issue.

Liberals See Minerals and New Markets as the Better Hedge

Michel Leblanc presented a sharply different route during the economic debate. Rather than reopen Quebec to shale-gas extraction, the Liberal candidate argued that the province should make greater use of its mineral resources. That approach fits with a broader Liberal campaign strategy emphasizing critical minerals, stronger mining communities and efforts to reduce the share of Quebec exports flowing to the United States.

The Quebec Liberals have pledged to pursue new commercial relationships in Canada, Europe and the Francophonie and have set a goal of reducing the U.S. share of Quebec’s international exports by at least 15% during a first mandate. They have also proposed a development fund for mining communities financed through a portion of mining-tax revenues. Critical minerals offer an existing economic foundation for that argument. Quebec’s current provincial strategy commits $88.1 million to strengthening exploration, production, processing and recycling of strategic minerals, while improving transportation, energy access and other infrastructure needed to bring projects to market.

Reopening Shale Gas Would Require a Major Policy Reversal

Quebec is not merely a jurisdiction where oil and gas development has become uncommon. Since August 23, 2022, provincial law has prohibited hydrocarbon exploration and production across the territory. Existing exploration and production licences were revoked, and former licence holders became subject to requirements governing permanent well closures and site restoration. Quebec describes itself as the first North American jurisdiction to enact such a prohibition.

That means a future government seeking shale-gas development would need more than regulatory adjustments. It would have to reverse or substantially change the legal framework created four years earlier, while confronting questions about environmental review and community acceptance. The campaign has also revealed some uncertainty inside the governing CAQ. Canadian Press reporting has noted that Premier Christine Fréchette has left some room for discussion around natural gas, yet outgoing Finance Minister Eric Girard declined during the economic debate to say whether he personally supported fracking. The Liberals, Parti Québécois and Québec solidaire have taken positions opposing shale-gas fracking.

Quebec’s Dependence on the U.S. Explains the Sense of Urgency

The trade numbers help explain why politicians with very different ideologies are all discussing ways to make Quebec less vulnerable to Washington. Quebec exported $121.6 billion worth of merchandise internationally in 2025. Of that amount, $84.8 billion went to the United States, equivalent to 69.8% of the province’s international merchandise exports.

There were already signs of diversification before the latest escalation. U.S.-bound exports fell 6.9% in 2025, while Quebec exports to destinations outside the United States increased. The pattern continued into 2026: through June, exports to the United States totalled about $40.4 billion, down 7.6% from the same period a year earlier. Yet replacing the American market is not straightforward. The United States remains particularly important to major Quebec industries, taking more than 80% of Quebec’s raw aluminum exports in 2025 and large shares of its aircraft, aerospace-engine and aerospace-parts exports. Geography, integrated supply chains and decades of investment cannot be quickly recreated elsewhere.

Quebec’s Energy Reality Is More Complicated Than Its Hydroelectric Image

Quebec can legitimately point to one of North America’s cleanest electricity systems. Hydro-Québec says more than 99% of the power it generates comes from renewable sources. That gives industries operating in the province access to an electricity mix fundamentally different from those of many competing jurisdictions and has become an important selling point for manufacturing, mining and emerging low-carbon industries.

Yet electricity generation tells only part of the energy story. HEC Montréal’s energy analysis put refined petroleum products at roughly 36% of Quebec energy consumption and natural gas at about 13%, while electricity accounted for around 41%. Transportation remains especially dependent on petroleum. Quebec’s official greenhouse-gas inventory shows transportation produced 44.8% of provincial emissions in 2023, with road transportation alone responsible for one-third of the province’s total emissions. The policy dispute is therefore not simply about whether Quebec supports renewable energy. It is about how remaining fossil-fuel demand should be supplied, reduced or eventually replaced.

Public Finances Leave the Next Government With Little Margin for Error

Energy and trade policy are being debated alongside another uncomfortable reality: Quebec’s next government will inherit tight public finances. The 2026-27 provincial budget forecast an accounting deficit of $6.3 billion, equivalent to 0.9% of GDP, while maintaining a commitment to return to balance by 2029-30. Preliminary results for the previous fiscal year subsequently came in better than earlier forecasts, but the medium-term requirement to control spending remains.

That pressure surfaced repeatedly during the Radio-Canada debate. Representatives disagreed over the pace of spending restraint, taxes and the size of the public service, even as no participant embraced the politically charged label of austerity. The economic backdrop offers little room for complacency. Quebec lost approximately 18,500 jobs in August, bringing employment to about 4.59 million and the unemployment rate to 5.6%. Trade uncertainty adds another variable. Whether a government chooses tax cuts, business assistance, mining development, energy projects or expanded public services, each proposal ultimately competes for limited fiscal room.

The Election Is Becoming a Debate Over Competing Forms of Economic Independence

The fossil-fuel dispute ultimately reflects two different interpretations of what economic independence means in an era of unstable U.S. trade relations. The Conservatives argue that a province still consuming natural gas should consider producing more of it itself, turning an imported energy requirement into domestic investment. The Liberals are proposing a different form of resilience: expand mining and critical-mineral development, support affected companies and deliberately build export relationships beyond the United States.

Other parties complicate that choice further. Québec solidaire has emphasized decarbonization and opposition to new fossil-fuel development, while the Parti Québécois also opposes shale-gas fracking and links economic questions to its broader sovereignty project. The CAQ has emphasized continuity and its experience responding to the tariff conflict while leaving some energy questions less settled. With Quebecers voting on October 5 and another leaders’ debate scheduled for September 23, the argument is no longer only about fossil fuels. It has become a test of how each party believes Quebec should protect jobs, public finances and economic autonomy when its largest trading relationship can no longer be taken for granted.

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