Manitoba’s Kinew Gives Carney ‘100%’ Backing After U.S. Deal Collapses

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Canada’s latest attempt to stabilize its economic relationship with the United States ended not with a handshake, but with negotiators heading home and another round of tariffs taking effect. In Manitoba, Premier Wab Kinew quickly closed ranks behind Prime Minister Mark Carney, saying his province stood “100 per cent” behind Ottawa’s decision to walk away rather than accept terms the federal government considered unacceptable.

The backing is significant because Manitoba has more at stake than political symbolism. More than 70 per cent of its international merchandise exports have historically gone to the United States, linking factories, farms and communities directly to cross-border commerce. With Washington imposing new 50 per cent tariffs and Canada preparing dollar-for-dollar countermeasures, Kinew’s message has shifted from skepticism about negotiations to support for confronting a potentially prolonged trade fight.

Kinew Closes Ranks Behind Carney

Only days before negotiations collapsed, Kinew was publicly skeptical that any agreement with the Trump administration could provide lasting certainty. He questioned whether concessions made by Canadian governments would produce a durable settlement and argued that Ottawa should be prepared to keep fighting rather than accept an arrangement that left major Canadian industries exposed. By Saturday, however, the debate was no longer about whether Carney should accept the emerging agreement. The federal government had rejected it, and Kinew’s focus turned decisively toward national unity.

Speaking after a virtual meeting between Carney and provincial and territorial premiers, Kinew said Manitoba stood “100 per cent” behind the federal response. He also described a strong sense of unity among the premiers and supported Carney’s decision to walk away from what he characterized as a bad deal. That distinction matters. Kinew was not necessarily endorsing every negotiating position Ottawa had taken during the preceding weeks; he was backing the decision not to sign once the final terms became unacceptable. In a trade crisis, that gives Carney valuable political cover from a western premier whose economy is unusually dependent on the American market.

A Deal That Looked Close Fell Apart Fast

The collapse was striking because the public signals only days earlier had pointed in the opposite direction. On August 18, Carney said substantial progress had been made, while the United States postponed implementation of its new 50 per cent tariffs until the end of August 21. Two days later, Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc emerged from discussions in Washington saying the countries were “very close.” Negotiators were still working through sensitive questions involving steel, aluminum, autos, lumber and other longstanding disputes.

That optimism disappeared late Friday. Carney announced on August 21 that he had suspended the negotiations and ordered Canada’s negotiating team back to Ottawa. His government said last-minute changes to the American proposal were unfair, uneconomic and serious enough to raise questions about whether the resulting agreement could be relied upon. The sequence explains why provincial reactions carried unusual weight: governments had spent days preparing for the possibility of concessions and a settlement, only to find themselves preparing for escalation instead. The three-day tariff delay became less of a bridge to an agreement than a brief extension before the dispute resumed.

Ottawa Says Sovereignty Became Part of the Bargain

Carney provided additional detail the next day about why Canada refused the final terms. According to the prime minister, disagreements remained over the treatment of automobiles, including which vehicles would receive tariff relief and how Canadian content would be handled. More consequentially, he said the United States sought restrictions affecting Canada’s ability to pursue trade arrangements with other countries and continued pressing on Canadian protections involving culture and the French language. Ottawa’s conclusion was that the cumulative package demanded too much while delivering too little economic certainty.

Washington disputes that account. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Canada declined to finalize terms that had been agreed to earlier in the week, introduced new demands and walked back previous commitments. Greer argued that the American proposal would have delivered substantial tariff reductions in steel, aluminum, automobiles and lumber while expanding cooperation on areas including aerospace and critical minerals. Those competing versions are important because they show that there is no mutually accepted explanation for the failure. What is confirmed is narrower: no final agreement was completed, Canada suspended the negotiations, and the American tariffs proceeded.

The 50% Tariffs Are No Longer Just a Threat

The breakdown immediately changed the economic calculation. The United States had temporarily delayed a new group of Section 338 duties while negotiations continued, but that suspension expired. At 12:01 a.m. Eastern time on August 22, additional tariffs of 50 per cent took effect on a range of Canadian products. Ottawa estimated the affected trade at roughly C$28 billion. The measures sit alongside other U.S. tariffs that have already complicated Canadian exports in strategic sectors, meaning businesses are dealing with overlapping trade restrictions rather than one simple across-the-board rate.

Carney responded by promising a dollar-for-dollar Canadian countermeasure. Ottawa says the new retaliation will concentrate on American products in sectors such as steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper and electronics. Those measures are scheduled to take effect September 8, after Labour Day, with detailed product lists still to be released. The delay creates a narrow period in which diplomacy could theoretically restart, but it also gives Canadian importers and businesses time to assess where additional costs could land. Carney has acknowledged that retaliation can raise prices and reduce choice inside Canada, framing the measures as a reluctant response rather than a cost-free political gesture.

Manitoba Has an Outsized Exposure to the U.S.

For Manitoba, a tougher trade confrontation carries unusually tangible risks. Provincial budget data estimated that Manitoba exported about C$14.5 billion in goods to the United States in 2024, representing more than 70 per cent of its total international merchandise exports. The province simultaneously imported about C$23 billion in American goods. That relationship touches everything from pharmaceuticals and buses to farm machinery, electricity, refined oilseed products and potatoes, while U.S. imports supply Manitoba businesses with vehicles, fertilizer, tractors, aerospace parts and industrial equipment.

The employment connection is just as important. Manitoba’s tariff-impact analysis noted that a record 1,756 provincial businesses exported to the United States in 2023. At an earlier peak in 2019, Statistics Canada estimates cited by the province linked more than 51,000 Manitoba jobs to U.S. exports, equivalent to 7.7 per cent of provincial employment at the time. The newest 50 per cent duties affect only a portion of Manitoba’s total exports, but trade shocks rarely stop at the customs invoice. Suppliers, transportation companies, maintenance contractors and communities built around export-oriented employers can feel weaker orders and delayed investment long before an entire industry shuts down.

Selkirk Shows Why Steel Remains Politically Sensitive

Steel provides one of the clearest Manitoba examples. Gerdau operates a steel mill in Selkirk, north of Winnipeg, and the facility has repeatedly surfaced in provincial discussions about U.S. tariffs. During debate in the Manitoba legislature in 2025, the local MLA estimated that the mill employed roughly 400 to 500 people, with about another 300 employees and small-business operators directly connected to its activity. Gerdau continues to advertise production, engineering and skilled-trades positions at the Manitoba operation, illustrating that it remains an active industrial employer rather than an abstract entry in trade statistics.

Kinew specifically referred to Selkirk’s steel workers when discussing the negotiations before they collapsed. Reports that Washington could reduce steel tariffs offered a potential benefit to the mill and its employees, but Kinew argued that Canada should continue pressing for something better rather than accept an unfavorable broader agreement simply to secure partial relief. That position helps explain why his support for Carney hardened after Friday’s breakdown. A provincial premier can simultaneously want tariff relief for an exposed employer and conclude that the price Washington seeks for that relief is too high.

Manitoba Agriculture Depends on Cross-Border Predictability

The trade relationship is equally important outside the factory gate. Manitoba government agricultural data show that the United States purchased about C$4.29 billion in Manitoba agri-food products in 2024. Some individual products are exceptionally dependent on the American market: roughly 94 per cent of Manitoba’s exported canola oil, 100 per cent of its canola meal and 95 per cent of its prepared potato exports went to the United States in the government’s 2024 trade profile. Those numbers illustrate why even the possibility of wider tariffs can influence planning decisions far from Ottawa.

Not every major Manitoba agricultural export is covered by the newest 50 per cent measures, and it would be misleading to treat the entire C$4.29-billion flow as newly tariffed. The broader concern is uncertainty across an integrated system. Farmers make planting and equipment decisions months in advance; processors negotiate contracts and transportation capacity; livestock and food businesses work with buyers whose costs can change abruptly when governments alter tariff schedules. Manitoba has been pursuing additional markets, but provincial officials have also acknowledged that a trading relationship accounting for roughly seven out of every 10 international export dollars cannot be replaced quickly. Diversification is therefore a long-term hedge, not an overnight substitute for the American market.

U.S. Liquor Has Gone From Symbol to Bargaining Chip

Few parts of the dispute demonstrate the political transformation of ordinary commerce better than alcohol. Canadian provinces removed American liquor from government-controlled stores during earlier stages of the tariff fight. As negotiators moved closer to a possible agreement last week, Carney asked premiers to consider returning U.S. products to shelves. Kinew acknowledged the request and was prepared to contemplate the move if it helped Canada obtain an acceptable broader settlement, although he continued urging consumers to support Canadian products.

Once the negotiations failed, that opening disappeared. Kinew said American alcohol would not be returning to Manitoba Liquor Mart shelves anytime soon. He also indicated that Manitoba would maintain its preference for Canadian suppliers in provincial procurement. According to Kinew, provincial spending with American suppliers has already fallen by more than 80 per cent since the dispute intensified. Manitoba’s tariff-response program has previously estimated that removing U.S. wine, beer and spirits from provincial stores takes approximately C$80 million in annual purchases away from American producers. What began as consumer-facing retaliation has therefore become part of the leverage governments are willing to add or remove during negotiations.

Businesses Are Now Waiting for the Support Package

Political unity does not eliminate the financial pressure facing exporters. Carney has said Ottawa will introduce additional assistance for workers and companies hit by the latest tariffs, building on nearly C$25 billion in federal support measures provided during the broader trade conflict. Kinew said Manitoba expects more information from Ottawa on Tuesday and indicated the province intends to provide details of its own response at the same time. He raised tax deferrals as one example of a tool that could improve companies’ cash flow, although no new Manitoba package had been formally detailed when he spoke Saturday.

The business community is asking governments to match political resolve with practical assistance. Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce CEO Loren Remillard backed the Team Canada approach but warned that some companies and workers will still experience real pain. Manitoba has previous experience with emergency tariff supports, including tax-payment deferrals and employment services introduced during earlier rounds of the dispute. The challenge now is targeting assistance carefully. A business losing orders because its product suddenly became 50 per cent more expensive in the American market has different needs from an importer facing higher Canadian retaliatory duties on an essential U.S.-made input.

The Fight Is Bigger Than One Failed Weekend Deal

The September 8 date for Canada’s next counter-tariffs leaves some room for the two governments to change direction, but neither side has announced a restored negotiating process. Kinew has suggested Manitoba should be prepared for a prolonged confrontation rather than assume a quick diplomatic reversal. Ottawa is simultaneously emphasizing domestic investment, new overseas markets and faster interprovincial trade. The premiers’ August 22 meeting with Carney similarly focused on protecting affected workers and businesses while strengthening internal trade and diversifying Canadian exports.

One important distinction is that the failed bilateral negotiations do not mean CUSMA itself vanished overnight. The North American agreement remains in force even after the United States declined to extend it automatically during its 2026 joint review. Canadian government guidance says CUSMA remains operative until 2036 under its existing review provisions, while negotiations over its future continue. That makes the current confrontation more complicated than a simple return to a pre-free-trade era. Canada and the United States remain deeply integrated under an existing continental framework while simultaneously imposing sectoral and product-specific tariffs on one another. For Manitoba, Kinew’s “100 per cent” backing signals that, for now, the province believes preserving Canada’s negotiating room is worth confronting that economic uncertainty.

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