Liberals Lead Conservatives by 7 as Trump Tariff Deadline Looms and Quebec Support Slips: Abacus

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Canada’s federal political landscape looks stable from a distance, but the latest numbers reveal movement beneath the surface. Abacus Data’s newest national tracking puts the Liberals seven percentage points ahead of the Conservatives, even as both major parties lose some support from the previous wave. The bigger warning sign for Prime Minister Mark Carney is in Quebec, where a once-comfortable Liberal advantage over the Bloc Québécois has nearly disappeared.

The shift arrives at a particularly sensitive moment. Canada and the United States are racing toward an August 19 tariff deadline that could place new 50% duties on billions of dollars of Canadian exports. Trade negotiations, dairy access and provincial restrictions on American alcohol have all become politically charged. For the Liberals, the numbers suggest that Donald Trump remains an electoral advantage nationally, but defending Canadian interests without unsettling Quebec voters is becoming a considerably more delicate balancing act.

The Seven-Point Lead Masks Movement Underneath

Abacus Data’s August tracking gives the Liberals 42% support among committed voters, compared with 35% for the Conservatives. The NDP stands at 10%, the Bloc Québécois at 8%, the Greens at 4%, and the People’s Party at 2%. On its face, a seven-point Liberal advantage is a strong position for a governing party. It also continues a dramatic reversal from early 2025, when Abacus tracking showed the Conservatives far ahead. The latest trend data put the Liberals at 41.6% and Conservatives at 35.4% before rounding, producing a 6.2-point underlying gap.

Yet the stability of the lead should not be confused with growth. Both major parties slipped compared with the July 29 Abacus reading, when the Liberals had 44% and Conservatives 38%. Some of that support dispersed toward smaller parties rather than moving directly from one major party to the other. That distinction matters politically. The Liberals have not suddenly lost their national advantage, but neither have the Conservatives converted Liberal softness into a surge of their own. The result is a political environment in which dissatisfaction can grow without immediately producing a clear alternative government.

Quebec Has Suddenly Become the Liberal Vulnerability

The most dramatic movement is concentrated in Quebec. Two weeks earlier, Abacus measured Liberal support in the province at 48%, compared with 28% for the Bloc Québécois. In the new wave, the Liberals have fallen to 37% while the Bloc has climbed to 35%. Conservatives are at 18%. A 20-point Liberal advantage over the Bloc has therefore narrowed to only two points in a remarkably short period. Outside Quebec, Abacus CEO David Coletto noted that Liberal support was effectively unchanged, making the province responsible for the national deterioration.

There is an important complication, however: Quebec voters do not appear to have turned sharply against Carney himself. His net personal impression in the province was measured at +32, almost identical to +31 in the previous wave. Meanwhile, 58% of Quebec respondents said they would consider voting Liberal, only one point below the previous reading. That suggests some voters may be parking their support with the Bloc rather than permanently shutting the door on the Liberals. In practical terms, the Liberal coalition appears softer in Quebec, not necessarily broken. Whether those voters return could depend heavily on how Ottawa handles trade concessions and Quebec-specific interests over the weeks ahead.

The Rest of the Electoral Map Still Gives Liberals an Advantage

Quebec’s movement is significant because the broader regional picture remains relatively favourable to the Liberals. Abacus has them leading Conservatives 48% to 37% in Ontario, the province that supplies the largest number of federal seats. Atlantic Canada also gives the Liberals a sizeable advantage at 48% to 33%. British Columbia remains comparatively competitive, with the Liberals at roughly 42% and Conservatives at 36%. Those regions collectively provide the governing party with a geographically broad coalition rather than one dependent on a single part of the country.

The Conservative map remains much more dominant across the Prairies. The party reaches 58% in Alberta and leads Saskatchewan and Manitoba with 46%. Age also produces striking differences. Liberal support rises to 51% among Canadians aged 60 and older, while the party is considerably weaker among people aged 30 to 44. Conservative support, by contrast, stays in a relatively narrow range across age categories. The NDP performs best among younger adults, reaching 19% among those aged 18 to 29. These divisions illustrate why the national topline cannot be read in isolation: two parties can be separated by seven points nationally while competing in very different regional and demographic political markets.

Trump Remains a Political Asset for the Liberals — Especially in Quebec

The irony of the Quebec decline is that the province is also one of the places where concern about Donald Trump is most intense. In the newest Abacus findings, 52% of Quebec respondents identified Trump and his administration as one of the three most important issues facing Canada. The previous national Abacus wave had already shown the Trump issue climbing sharply in importance, with 37% of Canadians selecting it as a top-three concern. Among those particularly focused on Trump at that time, Liberal support was 54% compared with 24% for the Conservatives.

That dynamic has helped reshape Canadian politics since Trump’s return to the White House. The Liberal message has increasingly centred on economic security, sovereignty and the ability of Carney’s government to manage a volatile relationship with Washington. But Quebec demonstrates the limit of that advantage. Voters can be worried about Trump while simultaneously questioning whether Ottawa will defend their provincial interests strongly enough. A trade agreement perceived as protecting Canada generally but weakening a politically sensitive Quebec sector could produce a very different reaction from a straightforward confrontation with Washington. For the Liberals, opposition to Trump is useful only if voters remain confident about the terms on which Ottawa ultimately makes peace with him.

August 19 Has Turned Trade Negotiations Into a Political Countdown

The immediate pressure comes from Washington’s plan to introduce additional 50% tariffs on August 19. The White House says the measures would cover a wide range of Canadian products, including goods such as wine, cement and hockey equipment. U.S. officials estimate the affected imports at nearly US$20 billion. Critically, the new duties are designed to apply to covered products even when they would otherwise qualify for preferential treatment under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement. Energy, potash, fish, critical minerals and several products already subject to separate Section 232 measures are among the exclusions.

Negotiators therefore have very little room for delay. Canadian minister Dominic LeBlanc and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer have met repeatedly, with technical discussions taking place alongside the political negotiations. Although a Canadian source told Reuters on August 13 that both governments wanted an agreement before the deadline, the picture became less optimistic a day later. LeBlanc reportedly told a Canadian advisory group that the two sides remained far from a draft agreement that Carney could approve. Further meetings were expected through the weekend. For businesses exposed to the targeted sectors, the negotiations are no longer an abstract trade-policy exercise; the difference between a deal and no deal can translate directly into costs, disrupted orders and investment decisions.

Dairy Has Become Much More Than an Agricultural Negotiating Point

Few trade issues carry as much political sensitivity in Quebec as dairy supply management. Canada’s system controls production and provides limited import access through tariff-rate quotas, with much higher tariffs potentially applying after those quotas are filled. CUSMA granted additional U.S. access to the Canadian dairy market, while disagreements over how Canada allocates those quotas have produced formal disputes. Canada altered some practices after losing an earlier CUSMA case, but a second panel rejected U.S. challenges to several Canadian allocation policies, leaving Ottawa without a requirement to make further changes in response to that ruling.

Dairy has nevertheless returned to the negotiating table as Washington presses for changes. Recent reporting indicates U.S. concerns include dairy quota allocation, Canadian tariffs affecting American automobiles and provincial restrictions on U.S. alcohol. Canada, meanwhile, wants relief from American steel and aluminum tariffs. The timing is particularly combustible in Quebec. The province’s next election is scheduled for October 5, with the formal campaign expected to begin near the end of August. As provincial politics intensifies, federal concessions that might otherwise be presented as technical trade compromises can quickly become symbols of whether Ottawa is protecting Quebec agriculture and autonomy. That environment offers the Bloc a natural opportunity to challenge Liberal credentials.

One Poll Is a Warning Signal, Not Proof of a Political Realignment

The size of the Quebec swing makes it tempting to declare that the Liberal coalition there is collapsing, but the methodology argues for more restraint. Abacus interviewed 1,499 Canadians between August 7 and 12 using verified double-opt-in online panels and weighted the results to reflect Canada’s population. The company notes that a probability-based random sample of the same size would carry a margin of error of approximately plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Regional results are based on smaller subsamples and consequently have substantially greater uncertainty than the national numbers.

That caveat is especially important when interpreting an 11-point movement in Quebec over only one tracking interval. The more durable indicators are mixed: Liberal vote intention declined dramatically, yet Carney’s personal standing barely changed and the number of Quebecers willing to consider the Liberals remained close to its previous level. That combination points to volatility rather than a definitive realignment. The next Abacus waves will matter more than the current one alone. If the Bloc retains its gains after the August 19 trade deadline and as Quebec enters a provincial campaign, the movement will look structural. If Liberal support rebounds, this episode may instead be remembered as a temporary warning generated by an unusually intense period of Canada-U.S. negotiations.

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