Liberals at 48%, Conservatives at 31% as U.S. Relations Remain a Top Canadian Concern: Nanos

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Canada’s political conversation is increasingly being shaped by what happens south of the border. The latest Nanos federal tracking, released September 22 and based on interviews ending September 18, puts Liberal support at 48.1%, compared with 31.0% for the Conservatives and 11.2% for the NDP. At the same time, relations with the United States have become the most frequently cited national concern in Nanos’ unprompted issue tracking.

The numbers capture two developments occurring at once: federal voting intentions have remained relatively stable in recent weeks, while Canadians’ priorities have shifted noticeably toward the U.S. relationship. Economic concerns have not disappeared, but trade uncertainty and cross-border tensions are increasingly competing with jobs, inflation and affordability for public attention.

The Headline Number Is a 17-Point National Gap

The latest Nanos tracking puts the Liberals at 48.1% among federal ballot preferences, while the Conservatives register 31.0%. That produces a 17.1-percentage-point difference in this particular national poll. The NDP sits at 11.2%, while the Bloc Québécois is recorded at 4.8% nationally, the Greens at 3.3% and the People’s Party at 1.0%. Those figures are based on a rolling survey rather than a single burst of interviews conducted over only a few days.

That distinction matters when interpreting the result. Nanos combines approximately four weeks of interviewing, replacing the oldest group of respondents with a new group each week. The system tends to smooth some short-term fluctuations while still allowing larger changes to appear over time. The September 22 release therefore describes public opinion across the four-week period ending September 18 rather than providing a one-day reading of Canadian politics. The numbers show where respondents stood during that window, but they should not be treated as an election result or a forecast of what would happen in every individual riding.

U.S. Relations Have Moved Ahead of Pocketbook Issues

The most striking movement in the Nanos data is not necessarily the party standings. It is the rapid rise in concern about Donald Trump and Canada-U.S. relations. When respondents were asked, without being provided a list of choices, to identify Canada’s most important national issue, 27.6% named Trump or relations with the United States. Jobs and the economy came second at 21.3%, followed by inflation at 9.5%.

Only four weeks earlier, U.S. relations stood at 14.9%, meaning the share identifying the issue increased by 12.7 percentage points. Jobs and the economy changed much less, moving from 20.2% to 21.3%. Inflation declined from 11.3% to 9.5%, while health care registered 5.8%, housing and housing costs 3.7%, the environment 3.6% and immigration 3.3%. The comparison illustrates how quickly foreign relations can become a domestic political issue when cross-border decisions affect businesses, workers, prices and investment. It also shows that economic concerns remain substantial rather than being displaced entirely by Washington.

Canada’s Trade Exposure Helps Explain Why Washington Matters

The prominence of the United States in the polling is easier to understand when the scale of the economic relationship is considered. Statistics Canada reported that 71.7% of Canadian merchandise exports went to the United States in 2025. That was down from 75.9% in 2024, but it still meant that more than seven out of every 10 dollars of Canadian goods exports were destined for the U.S. market. Global Affairs Canada has separately estimated that nearly $3.6 billion worth of goods and services crossed the Canada-U.S. border every day in 2024.

That exposure means changes in American trade policy can quickly move beyond diplomatic circles. Auto plants depend on components repeatedly crossing the border, energy producers rely heavily on U.S. customers, and steel, aluminum, manufacturing and transportation businesses are closely tied to continental supply chains. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said on September 21 that renewed Canada-U.S. trade tensions were creating fresh uncertainty for households and businesses. He also said Canadian exporters were increasingly adjusting supply chains and looking beyond the United States, although geography means the U.S. is expected to remain Canada’s largest trading partner.

Carney Also Leads the Preferred-Prime-Minister Measure

Nanos measures leadership preferences separately from federal ballot intentions, and the distinction is important. In the latest tracking, 58.6% selected Mark Carney as their first choice for prime minister. Pierre Poilievre registered 21.3%, followed by Avi Lewis at 3.8%, Elizabeth May at 2.6%, Yves-François Blanchet at 2.0% and Maxime Bernier at 0.8%. About 10.9% were unsure.

Those figures should not be interpreted as votes because the questions measure different things. A respondent may prefer one leader personally while considering another party, and Canada’s federal election is decided by contests between local candidates rather than through a direct national vote for prime minister. Still, leadership measurements add context to the ballot numbers because they show how respondents are evaluating the people associated with each party at the same point in time. Nanos also publishes a broader Party Power Index incorporating several indicators, including ballot preferences and leadership impressions. In the September 18 tracking period, that index placed the Liberals at 66.3 points and the Conservatives at 44.1.

Smaller Parties Still Account for a Meaningful Share of Support

The Liberal-Conservative comparison dominates the topline, but roughly one-fifth of the support reported by Nanos is distributed among other federal parties. The NDP stands at 11.2%, while the Bloc, Greens and People’s Party collectively add another 9.1 percentage points. That leaves a political landscape in which national attention may concentrate on the two largest parties while millions of potential voters continue considering alternatives.

The geographic nature of several parties also complicates national percentages. The Bloc Québécois contests seats only in Quebec, meaning its 4.8% national number is not directly comparable with a party competing in every region. The NDP and Greens, meanwhile, can have concentrations of support that differ considerably from their national averages. This is why a national poll is most useful as a measure of broad public sentiment rather than a simple map of parliamentary outcomes. Nanos itself notes that political preferences differ by region and demographic group, while more detailed regional and age breakdowns are available through its tracking system.

Other September Polls Show a Similar National Pattern

Nanos is not the only polling organization to have measured a sizeable Liberal-Conservative gap during September, although the exact numbers vary by pollster and methodology. Liaison Strategies reported on September 21 that the Liberals stood at 45% among decided and leaning voters, compared with 31% for the Conservatives and 15% for the NDP. Its survey used interactive voice response interviewing with 1,526 Canadians contacted through randomly generated landline and cellphone numbers.

Other recent studies produced somewhat different figures. Léger reported 49% Liberal and 33% Conservative support among decided voters in polling conducted September 5 to 7, with the NDP at 6%. Abacus Data, fielding its survey from September 4 to 9, measured the Liberals at 47%, Conservatives at 33% and NDP at 8% after undecided respondents were removed. These polls should not be averaged informally because they use different questionnaires, sampling approaches, field dates and treatments of undecided voters. They do, however, provide useful context showing that the Nanos result is being recorded during a period when several firms have measured a double-digit national Liberal lead.

The Shift Toward U.S. Concerns Has Built Over Several Weeks

The current Nanos reading did not appear all at once. On August 25, the firm reported a 14-point Liberal-Conservative gap while 14.9% of respondents identified Trump or U.S. relations as their most important national concern. A week later, Nanos measured an 11-point party gap, with U.S. relations statistically tied with jobs and the economy near the top of its issue tracking.

By September 8, Nanos put the Liberal lead at 16 points and reported that Trump and the Canada-U.S. relationship had become the leading national issue for the first time in roughly a year. On September 15, concern about the United States reached 27.5%, compared with 21.1% for jobs and the economy, while Liberal and Conservative support stood at 48.3% and 30.9%, respectively. The latest release changed those party numbers only marginally—to 48.1% and 31.0%—while U.S. concern edged to 27.6%. The sequence suggests stability in the party standings alongside a much more pronounced shift in what respondents say they are worried about.

Economic Anxiety Has Not Gone Away

The increased focus on Washington does not mean Canadians have stopped worrying about domestic economic conditions. Jobs and the economy remain the second-most commonly identified national concern in the Nanos tracking at 21.3%, while inflation accounts for another 9.5%. Together, those figures indicate that economic conditions continue to occupy a significant part of the national conversation even as international relations receive more attention.

Recent Bank of Canada commentary helps explain why the two subjects are increasingly connected. Macklem said on September 21 that fresh U.S. tariffs covered products representing roughly 5% of Canada’s goods exports to the United States. While the Bank expected the direct economy-wide impact to be limited relative to the harm facing specific sectors, it warned that uncertainty could delay investment and hiring. Macklem said growth in the fourth quarter could fall below 1% if the new tariffs remain in place. In practical terms, a Canada-U.S. dispute can therefore become a jobs, investment, inflation and household-confidence story at the same time.

Methodology Matters When Reading the Numbers

Nanos’ latest weekly tracking is based on 1,026 Canadians aged 18 and older recruited through random-digit-dial telephone sampling covering landlines and cellphones. The interviews are combined into a four-week rolling average, with approximately 250 older interviews removed and a similar number of new interviews added each week. The current dataset covers the period ending September 18. Nanos reports an overall accuracy of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, for the random sample.

There is another methodological detail worth noting: the national-issue question is unprompted. Respondents are asked to identify the most important issue themselves rather than select from a prepared menu. That makes the rapid increase in mentions of the United States notable, but it does not demonstrate why individual respondents chose that answer or prove that the issue caused changes in voting intention. Polling can establish measured patterns and associations; determining political causation requires more evidence. The rolling design also means weekly changes partly reflect both new interviews entering the sample and older interviews leaving it.

National Vote Percentages Are Not a Seat Forecast

A 48%-to-31% national polling result cannot simply be converted into the same proportions of seats in the House of Commons. Canada currently has 343 federal electoral districts, and Elections Canada describes the electoral system as single-member plurality, commonly known as first-past-the-post. In each riding, the candidate receiving more votes than any other candidate wins the seat; obtaining more than 50% is not required.

That structure makes the geographic distribution of support important. Two parties with similar national vote totals can win different numbers of seats depending on whether their supporters are concentrated in particular ridings or spread efficiently across competitive districts. Regional differences visible in other September polls reinforce that point: recent Léger and Abacus surveys, for example, showed sharply different party standings in Alberta, Quebec, British Columbia and Ontario. The Nanos numbers are therefore best read as a national measurement of current preferences and concerns. They establish neither a future election result nor how 343 individual constituency contests would ultimately unfold.

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