Only 29% of Canadians Approve of Ottawa’s Handling of Living Costs Even as Carney Holds 11-Point Polling Lead

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For millions of Canadians, the rising cost of everyday life remains a major source of frustration, even as Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government maintains a substantial political advantage. New findings released by Abacus Data on November 8, 2026, reveal that just 29% of Canadians approve of Ottawa’s handling of inflation and living costs, while 47% disapprove. Despite that dissatisfaction, the Liberals hold an 11-percentage-point lead over the Conservatives, and 57% of Canadians approve of the federal government’s overall performance. The contrast highlights an unusual political divide between household financial concerns and broader confidence in national leadership. With affordability pressures continuing and Ottawa introducing new economic measures, the government’s challenge is increasingly about turning political support into improvements Canadians can see in their everyday lives.

Affordability Approval Falls to Just 29% as Public Frustration Grows

The clearest warning for the Carney government is the deterioration in its affordability ratings. According to Abacus Data, only 29% of Canadians approve of Ottawa’s handling of the cost of living and inflation, while 47% disapprove. Approval stood at 38% in September and 31% in October, meaning the government has lost nine percentage points of support on this issue in approximately two months. Affordability is now its weakest-performing policy area among the ten examined, despite remaining central to the lives of Canadian households.

The contrast with the government’s broader popularity is particularly striking. Overall federal government approval stands at 57%, with 27% disapproving, creating a 28-point gap between general approval and satisfaction with affordability policies. This suggests many Canadians are distinguishing between their confidence in Carney’s leadership and their assessment of his government’s economic results. For a family struggling with grocery bills, insurance costs or housing expenses, confidence in a prime minister does not necessarily translate into confidence that financial pressures are being adequately addressed.

Liberals Maintain an 11-Point Lead Despite Losing Ground

The Liberal Party remains comfortably ahead in federal voting intentions, although its advantage has narrowed considerably since October. The latest Abacus Data findings place Liberal support at 45% among committed voters, compared with 34% for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. The New Democratic Party stands at 9%, followed by the Bloc Québécois at 8%, the Greens at 3% and the People’s Party at 2%. These results give Carney’s Liberals a substantial national advantage, even as dissatisfaction with important domestic policies continues to grow.

However, the direction of the numbers is worth watching. On October 21, the Liberals led the Conservatives by 16 percentage points, with support at 48% and 32%, respectively. Since then, Liberal support has declined three points while Conservative support has increased two. That movement does not establish a lasting electoral trend, but it demonstrates that the government’s advantage is not immune to change. For now, the Conservatives have an opportunity to narrow the race by connecting everyday affordability concerns with their broader economic message. The challenge is turning dissatisfaction with government policies into support for an alternative government.

Cost of Living Remains Canada’s Most Pressing Concern

Affordability is not simply another issue competing for political attention. It is the dominant concern among Canadians, with 63% identifying the rising cost of living as one of the country’s three most important problems. That places it well ahead of the economy and Donald Trump and his administration, each selected by 38%. Housing affordability follows at 32%, while healthcare stands at 31%. The findings reveal that household financial security remains a priority even as Canada faces significant international trade and economic uncertainty.

The concern also extends across provincial and regional boundaries. In both Alberta and Atlantic Canada, 72% identify the rising cost of living as a leading issue. The proportion reaches 66% in British Columbia, 63% in Ontario and 56% in Quebec. These differences matter because Canadians experience affordability pressures in different ways. For households that depend heavily on driving, fuel costs can dominate monthly expenses. For renters, housing payments may leave less room for groceries and savings. Although the underlying pressures vary, the political message is similar across the country: Canadians want economic progress to translate into greater financial security at home.

Inflation Data Explain Why Household Budgets Remain Under Pressure

Canada’s latest available inflation figures help explain why affordability remains such a powerful political issue. Statistics Canada reported that consumer prices increased 3.1% year over year in September 2026, following a 3.0% increase in August. Gasoline prices were particularly troublesome, rising 27.8% from a year earlier, while transportation costs increased 8.4%. Food purchased from stores rose by a more modest 1.7%, but that slower growth offered limited relief from years of accumulated price increases.

The distinction between slowing inflation and falling prices is important. Statistics Canada found that grocery prices were 33% higher in September 2026 than in September 2020. Even when food inflation slows, consumers continue paying substantially more than they did several years earlier. A household that has already reduced restaurant visits, postponed purchases or adjusted its grocery shopping may not feel financially better simply because prices are increasing more slowly. The Bank of Canada’s October outlook adds another complication, projecting inflation to remain above 3% through much of 2027. That outlook suggests sustained affordability concerns could remain a political challenge for Ottawa well beyond the current polling cycle.

Housing Affordability Adds Another Challenge for Ottawa

Housing is another area where the federal government’s performance receives relatively weak approval. Only 31% of Canadians approve of Ottawa’s handling of housing affordability and supply, according to Abacus Data. Meanwhile, 32% identify housing affordability and accessibility among Canada’s most important issues. For young adults trying to enter the property market, rising housing costs can make traditional milestones such as buying a first home or starting a family more difficult. Renters face a different challenge: finding enough financial flexibility to save while covering their current living expenses.

The longer-term supply problem remains substantial. In its September 2026 Housing Supply Report, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation estimated that the country needs between 417,000 and 469,000 housing starts annually to restore affordability to pre-pandemic levels by 2036. Current projections fall considerably short of that requirement. Although some rental markets have experienced easing conditions, weak construction of ownership-oriented housing threatens future affordability improvements. The findings underscore why housing announcements alone may not immediately restore public confidence. Canadians will ultimately judge progress through homes becoming available, rents becoming manageable and realistic opportunities to enter the housing market.

Regional and Generational Divides Reveal a More Complicated Political Picture

The Liberals retain significant advantages across much of Canada, particularly in several regions that are important to federal election outcomes. In Ontario, they lead the Conservatives by 52% to 34%, while British Columbia shows a 45% to 35% Liberal advantage. Atlantic Canada remains another area of strength, with the Liberals leading 52% to 31%. Quebec presents a different contest, with the Liberals at 39%, the Bloc Québécois at 34% and the Conservatives at 20%. However, Conservative support remains particularly strong in Alberta, where the party leads 56% to 30%.

Age introduces another important dividing line. Among Canadians aged 60 and older, the Liberals lead by 56% to 29%. Among adults aged 18 to 44, however, the Conservatives hold a narrower advantage of 37% to 34%. These differences illustrate how the government’s national popularity can conceal vulnerabilities within individual demographic groups. Younger Canadians facing expensive housing, career uncertainty and the challenge of building financial security may evaluate economic leadership differently from older voters. The findings do not establish the reasons behind those differences, but they highlight why national polling advantages cannot be treated as uniform support across the electorate.

Carney’s Handling of U.S. Relations Helps Protect His Political Standing

One explanation for the government’s continued popularity is that Canadians appear to evaluate Carney’s leadership through more than domestic affordability concerns. Abacus Data found that 54% approve of Ottawa’s handling of Canada-U.S. relations, with an identical proportion approving of its approach to national defence and security. Both results stand well above the 29% approval recorded for living costs and inflation. Carney also maintains stronger personal ratings than Poilievre, with 53% expressing a positive impression of the prime minister compared with 35% for the Conservative leader.

Abacus Data examined the relationship between approval of specific policy areas and overall government approval using a statistical regression model. Its analysis found that positive assessments of Canada-U.S. relations were associated with 5.6 times greater odds of approving of the government after accounting for the other policy areas examined. National defence and security, along with jobs and economic growth, were also significant predictors. Affordability was not independently associated with overall approval after those factors were considered. Although this analysis does not establish causation, it suggests that the government’s perceived performance on national leadership and international relations may currently be helping insulate it from economic dissatisfaction.

Conservatives Hold an Affordability Advantage but Have Yet to Convert It Into a National Lead

The Conservatives have an identifiable opportunity on the issue Canadians consider most important. Among respondents who selected the rising cost of living as one of their three leading concerns, 35% believe the Conservatives would do the best job addressing it, compared with 30% who favour the Liberals. Another 20% remain unsure. The Conservatives also hold smaller advantages on housing affordability, at 31% compared with 29% for the Liberals, and job security and unemployment, at 38% compared with 35%.

However, these issue-specific advantages do not extend consistently across the political landscape. Among respondents concerned about the broader economy, the Liberals hold a narrow 41% to 40% advantage. On handling Donald Trump and his administration, the Liberal advantage expands considerably, reaching 66% compared with 16% for the Conservatives. The findings help explain why dissatisfaction with affordability has not produced a corresponding Conservative lead. Canadians may prefer one party on household expenses while trusting another on international relations or national economic management. For Poilievre, the political opportunity is substantial, but converting concern into electoral support remains an important challenge.

Rising Unemployment and Higher Interest Rates Add to Financial Uncertainty

The latest labour market figures provide another reason why economic confidence could become increasingly important. Statistics Canada’s October 2026 Labour Force Survey reported that employment was essentially unchanged, declining by approximately 4,700 positions, while the unemployment rate increased to 6.7%. Youth unemployment reached 13.7%, adding to the challenges facing younger workers entering the labour market. Private-sector employment declined by 53,000 positions during the month, although public-sector employment increased by 50,000. Average hourly wages rose 2.2% from a year earlier, underscoring the importance of wage growth in an environment of elevated prices.

Borrowing costs present a separate challenge. On October 28, the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, responding to persistent inflationary pressures, particularly those associated with energy costs. Higher policy rates can influence variable-rate borrowing and other financing costs, even if individual mortgage rates do not always move in lockstep. The central bank also warned that inflation could remain elevated for longer than previously anticipated. For households balancing debt payments, living expenses and uncertain employment prospects, the combination complicates financial planning. It also creates a difficult economic environment in which Ottawa’s affordability measures must operate.

Ottawa’s New Budget Creates a Crucial Test for the Government

The timing of the Abacus Data findings is important. Interviews were conducted between October 30 and November 4, before the federal budget was tabled on November 5. Consequently, the results cannot establish whether Canadians approve of the newly announced measures. Budget 2026 proposes additional affordability assistance, including a one-time 2027 Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit Supplement. Eligible recipients could receive up to $339 for a single person without children or $679 for a couple with two children through that supplement. Ottawa also proposed enhancements to income support for lower-wage workers and measures intended to encourage housing construction. These initiatives provide the government with an opportunity to address public concerns, although their eventual impact will depend on implementation, eligibility and economic conditions.

The findings also require careful interpretation. Abacus Data interviewed 1,926 Canadian adults through online research panels and weighted the results to reflect census demographics. Its stated 2.2-percentage-point margin of error refers to a comparable probability-based sample, rather than a conventional sampling margin for the online panel itself. Individual changes between polling periods should therefore not be treated as definitive evidence of a lasting trend. Nevertheless, the broader political tension is clear. Carney continues to benefit from substantial public support, but that advantage coexists with worsening assessments of affordability. Whether the Liberals can preserve their lead may depend increasingly on their ability to deliver measurable improvements in the financial conditions Canadians experience every day.

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