Half of Americans Reject Tariffs on Canada Ahead of CUSMA Showdown

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Washington’s tariff strategy is colliding with an uncomfortable reality at home: many Americans do not want a trade war with Canada. Recent polling found that 51% would prefer no tariff at all on Canadian goods, while newer research shows overwhelming U.S. support for keeping the North American trade agreement alive.

That public resistance arrives at a critical moment. Canada, the United States and Mexico are approaching the July 1 review of CUSMA, known as USMCA south of the border. President Donald Trump has repeatedly questioned whether the pact should continue, even as consumers, manufacturers, farmers and exporters remain tied to a deeply integrated continental economy. The dispute is therefore becoming more than a negotiation over tariff schedules. It is a test of whether political pressure can override the economic relationships Americans encounter in their vehicles, grocery bills, workplaces and energy costs.

A Polling Warning Washington Cannot Ignore

The clearest warning came from an Angus Reid Institute poll conducted among 1,529 American adults in early March. It found that 51% wanted Canadian products to enter the United States without tariffs. Another 24% preferred only a minor tariff, while just 8% supported a major one. Opposition to tariff-free trade had not hardened as the confrontation continued. Instead, support for no tariffs had increased from 42% before the 2024 presidential election.

A separate national poll released by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs on June 26 painted an even broader picture. Seventy-eight per cent of Americans said CUSMA had been good for the U.S. economy. Fifty-one per cent wanted their country to remain in the agreement under its existing terms, another 36% supported remaining after renegotiation, and only 8% wanted the United States to leave. Together, the results suggest that Americans may tolerate efforts to improve the pact, but there is little public demand for dismantling continental trade.

The Anti-Tariff Majority Is Broader Than It First Appears

The 51% supporting completely tariff-free access does not capture everyone who is uncomfortable with the administration’s approach. Many respondents who selected a minor tariff may favour a limited negotiating tool rather than the aggressive duties imposed on politically sensitive sectors. When those groups are considered together, nearly three-quarters of Americans preferred either no tariff or only a modest one on Canadian goods.

The public also expressed broader dissatisfaction with Trump’s tariff performance. The Angus Reid findings showed that 57% disapproved of his handling of tariffs, compared with 30% who approved. Another 63% believed the costs were being borne primarily by American consumers or businesses. That perception matters because voters do not experience trade policy as a debate between economists. They experience it when a contractor pays more for metal, a family replaces an expensive appliance or an automaker adjusts vehicle prices. The more tariffs become associated with ordinary purchases, the harder they become to defend as a cost-free penalty against another country.

Tariffs Are Landing at the Checkout

Economic evidence increasingly supports what many Americans already suspect. Federal Reserve researchers found that the tariffs introduced during 2025 gradually raised retail prices rather than producing one dramatic increase. A later Federal Reserve analysis estimated that those measures had lifted core goods prices by 3.1% through February 2026 and contributed about 0.8% to the broader core personal consumption expenditures price index.

New Federal Reserve research published in June also found that households responded by paying more and buying less. In product categories with greater tariff exposure, prices increased while spending declined, with lower-income households carrying a disproportionate welfare burden. Businesses can initially absorb a duty by accepting lower margins, but that response has limits. Eventually, costs may appear through higher prices, reduced product selection, delayed investment or smaller workforces. For households already focused on affordability, the distinction between a tariff and a tax can feel largely academic. Both can leave less money available after essential purchases have been made.

Canada Still Has Deep Goodwill in the United States

The disagreement over trade has not erased Americans’ generally positive opinion of Canada. Angus Reid found that 73% held a favourable view of their northern neighbour, including 60% of self-identified MAGA Republicans. Canada’s favourability rating exceeded those recorded for the United Kingdom and the European Union in the same research. More than half also considered Canada one of America’s most important trading partners.

Another large poll conducted by Abacus Data in February produced a similar result. Sixty-four per cent of Americans had a positive opinion of Canada, compared with only 11% who held a negative one. Seventy-seven per cent said Canada was important to the U.S. economy, including majorities of both Trump and Kamala Harris voters. Those numbers matter because tariffs are easier to market politically when they target a country viewed as an adversary or economic threat. Canada is more commonly understood as a familiar neighbour, security partner, vacation destination and customer for American products, making a prolonged confrontation more difficult to separate from everyday cross-border relationships.

The CUSMA Review Is Not an Expiry Date

The July 1 review is consequential, but it does not mean CUSMA suddenly disappears if the three governments fail to agree on an extension. The agreement entered into force on July 1, 2020, with a 16-year term. Its review clause asks the countries to assess its performance after six years and decide whether to extend it for another 16 years, which would carry the agreement through 2042.

Without unanimous support for an extension, CUSMA remains in effect and annual reviews can continue until 2036. That arrangement avoids an immediate economic cliff, but it creates another danger: prolonged uncertainty. Companies deciding where to build a factory, expand a warehouse or source components may hesitate if tariff treatment could be reopened every year. The Bank of Canada has warned that a significantly altered agreement could increase trade costs, reduce Canadian exports and weaken investment and hiring. The same uncertainty could affect American businesses that rely on Canadian customers, energy, raw materials and intermediate goods.

Trump’s Position Collides With Public Opinion

Trump has said that he is “not looking to renew” CUSMA and later argued that the United States might perform better without the agreement. His administration has also indicated that tariffs could remain even under a revised pact. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has emphasized trade deficits, stronger rules of origin and policies designed to shift more production into the United States.

The public is sending a different message. The Chicago Council found that 73% of Americans would prefer leaders to improve relations with Canada and Mexico, even when doing so requires concessions on economic or trade issues. Support for CUSMA was not confined to Democrats: 74% of Republicans and 74% of independents said the agreement was good for the American economy. That does not prevent Washington from demanding changes involving automotive content, dairy access, China or border enforcement. It does, however, complicate attempts to portray withdrawal as an obvious public priority. Most Americans appear more interested in preserving the trading relationship than creating another prolonged source of economic disruption.

Supply Chains Turn Tariffs Into Self-Inflicted Costs

Canada is not simply a distant seller shipping finished goods into the United States. The two economies exchange energy, machinery, food, vehicles, plastics, technology and services through supply chains built over decades. In 2025, bilateral goods trade totalled approximately US$719.5 billion. American companies exported about US$336.5 billion in goods to Canada, meaning Canadian retaliation or reduced demand can quickly affect U.S. producers.

Energy demonstrates the depth of that dependence. Canada supplied an average of 4.1 million barrels of crude oil per day to the United States in 2024 and remained the primary source of American crude imports. Much of that oil is suited to refinery configurations in the Midwest and other regions. Replacing it is not always as simple as ordering an identical product elsewhere. The automotive sector is similarly interconnected, with components and materials moving through continental production networks. A tariff collected at the border may therefore raise costs for an American factory before it ever affects the Canadian company the policy was intended to pressure.

American Exporters Also Depend on Canadian Buyers

Canada is traditionally one of the largest customers for American businesses. It was the leading export market for 32 states in 2024 and ranked first or second for 44 states. U.S. exports to Canada exceeded American exports to Australia, Brazil, China, India and Vietnam combined. That commercial footprint gives the dispute a local dimension extending far beyond Washington and Ottawa.

Agriculture is especially exposed. Canada purchased approximately US$28.2 billion in American agricultural products during 2025, making it the second-largest foreign market for U.S. farm and food exports. Common exports include bakery products, vegetables, fruit, beverages, ethanol, meat and prepared foods. Those sales support farmers, processors, transportation companies and smaller manufacturers across numerous states. A Canadian shopper choosing a domestic alternative may seem insignificant in isolation. Multiplied across millions of purchases, however, changing consumer behaviour can affect orders, shifts and investment. That helps explain why many American industry groups prefer predictable market access to recurring tariff threats, even when they support targeted improvements to the agreement.

Partisanship Is the Biggest Complication

American attitudes toward Canada are positive overall, but they are increasingly filtered through political identity. Angus Reid found that 72% of Democrats and 57% of independents wanted no tariff on Canadian goods. MAGA Republicans were more supportive of trade barriers, although even within that group a minor tariff was considerably more popular than a major one. Only one in five MAGA respondents selected a major tariff.

That division gives the administration room to maintain a confrontational message without enjoying majority support across the country. Tariffs may be presented to loyal voters as evidence of strength, leverage or economic nationalism. Yet Republican opinion is not uniform. Recent Chicago Council polling found that nearly three-quarters of Republicans still believed CUSMA was beneficial to the United States. The political challenge for opponents of tariffs is therefore not simply persuading Americans that Canada is friendly. It is showing how continental trade supports American communities while acknowledging concerns about factory closures, foreign content, enforcement and unfair practices that helped make tariff rhetoric attractive.

Public Opinion Gives Canada Leverage, Not Control

The polling offers Canada a useful advantage heading into negotiations. Ottawa can argue that tariff-free commerce is not merely a Canadian request; it is also preferred by many American voters, businesses and industries. Canadian officials can reinforce that argument by working directly with governors, congressional representatives, farm organizations, manufacturers and labour groups whose communities depend on cross-border activity.

Public support cannot dictate the White House’s decision, however. Trade negotiations are shaped by executive authority, domestic politics and demands involving sectors such as automobiles, steel, aluminum, agriculture and digital commerce. Canada must therefore avoid assuming that favourable American opinion guarantees favourable policy. Its strongest approach is likely to combine targeted advocacy in the United States with domestic support for affected industries and greater trade diversification. The 51% finding reveals that Trump’s tariff position is not synonymous with American opinion. Whether that gap changes the outcome will depend on whether opposition becomes politically costly enough for U.S. decision-makers to reconsider their strategy.

What Comes After the July 1 Showdown

The most likely immediate result may be neither a clean renewal nor a dramatic collapse. Without a three-country agreement to extend CUSMA, the pact can move into a period of continuing negotiations and annual reviews. Businesses would retain much of their existing market access, but uncertainty could become a permanent feature of investment planning. Companies may delay projects, hold more inventory or shift production to protect themselves against future changes.

That uncertainty is already affecting Canadian manufacturers. A June survey by Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters found that more than nine in 10 supported extending CUSMA, while 73% said unresolved or recurring reviews would negatively affect their businesses. Among companies affected by recent U.S. metal tariff changes, 74% reported a moderate or significant negative impact. The public-opinion numbers provide a striking final contrast. Most Americans believe continental trade is beneficial and do not want heavy tariffs on Canada, yet the three countries remain close to an open-ended negotiation. The coming showdown will reveal whether economic integration and voter sentiment can outweigh a White House determined to rewrite the rules.

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