Canada’s Population in Its 20s Drops by Nearly 155,000 as International Student Numbers Decline

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Canada is experiencing a significant demographic shift, with the number of people in their 20s falling by nearly 155,000 in just one year. New figures released by Statistics Canada on September 23, 2026, show that the population aged 20 to 29 declined by 2.8% between July 2025 and July 2026, coinciding with a substantial reduction in international students.
The decline comes as Canada continues to tighten temporary immigration and adjust to slower population growth after years of record-breaking migration. Although the country’s overall population is still growing, the shrinking number of young adults raises questions about the future of post-secondary education, the labour market, housing demand and Canada’s aging population. The latest figures offer an early indication of how changes to immigration policy are reshaping the country’s demographics.

Young Adults Account for the Largest Population Declines

The latest Statistics Canada figures reveal that people in their 20s experienced the largest population declines of any five-year age groups between July 1, 2025, and July 1, 2026. The number of Canadians aged 20 to 24 fell by 63,838, representing a 2.4% decrease. The decline was even more pronounced among those aged 25 to 29, whose numbers dropped by 91,135, or 3.1%. Combined, the two age groups lost 154,973 people, a 2.8% reduction in just 12 months.

These figures represent a notable change in Canada’s recent demographic trajectory. During the years immediately following the pandemic, substantial international migration brought large numbers of young adults into the country. Many arrived to attend colleges and universities or pursue employment opportunities. That trend has now shifted as fewer temporary residents enter Canada and existing permit holders reach the end of their authorized stays. The figures measure changes in the age groups’ populations rather than tracking the departure of 154,973 specific individuals.

International Student Numbers Are Falling Sharply

International students are an important part of the explanation behind Canada’s shrinking young adult population. Statistics Canada estimates that the number of non-permanent residents holding study permits fell by 140,827 between July 2025 and July 2026. An additional decline of 81,163 occurred among people holding both work and study permits. Although the two categories should not be interpreted as a direct count of students who left Canada, the figures illustrate how dramatically the country’s temporary resident population is changing.

Overall, Canada had an estimated 2,779,774 non-permanent residents on July 1, 2026, down by 154,614 from a year earlier. Their share of the population stood at 6.7%, compared with a peak of 7.2% in October 2024. Statistics Canada described the latest annual decline as the largest since comparable records began in 1971/1972. The reduction is particularly relevant to people in their 20s because international students tend to be young adults, placing this demographic at the centre of the changing migration trend.

Canada’s Student Permit Restrictions Are Reshaping Immigration

The decline follows major changes to Canada’s international student program. In January 2024, the federal government introduced a cap on most study permit applications, marking a shift from the rapid expansion of previous years. Subsequent policy changes further restricted student intake, while revisions to post-graduation work permit eligibility changed the employment opportunities available to some prospective students. The government’s stated objective has been to bring temporary immigration into closer alignment with housing availability, public services and labour market requirements.
The scale of the reduction is substantial. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada expects to issue up to 408,000 study permits in 2026, including 253,000 extensions and 155,000 for newly arriving international students. That overall issuance target is 7% below the 2025 target and 16% below the 2024 target. The government also reported that only 115,470 new international students arrived in 2025, well below its target of 305,900. These figures help explain why fewer young newcomers are entering Canada’s population while existing students continue completing their studies.

Canada’s Overall Population Is Still Growing, but Much More Slowly

Despite the substantial decline among people in their 20s, Canada’s total population has not contracted on an annual basis. Statistics Canada estimates that the country had 41,798,407 residents on July 1, 2026, an increase of 189,425 people, or 0.5%, from the previous July. Nevertheless, the pace of growth has slowed considerably. The latest July-to-July increase was the smallest in absolute numbers since 1944/1945, while the annual growth rate was the lowest since 1915/1916.

International migration accounts for much of the change. Canada’s annual population growth rate reached 2.8% in 2023/2024 before slowing to 1.1% in 2024/2025 and 0.5% in 2025/2026. Permanent immigration has also declined, with 368,224 new permanent immigrants recorded in the latest July-to-July period. This was the first time since 2021/2022 that annual admissions fell below 400,000. Canada continues to welcome newcomers, but at a slower pace, changing the balance between population growth, the available workforce and demand for housing and public services.

Canadian Colleges and Universities Are Already Feeling the Effects

Canada’s post-secondary institutions are experiencing significant changes as international enrolment falls. A Statistics Canada study released in May 2026 estimated that the number of full-time international students at public colleges and universities declined by approximately 124,000, or 29%, between the 2023/2024 and 2025/2026 academic years. Total enrolment fell to approximately 300,000, returning to levels similar to those recorded during the second academic year of the pandemic. The reduction was especially pronounced at colleges, where international enrolment declined by an estimated 42% over the two-year period.

The financial implications extend beyond tuition payments. International students contribute to campus communities and spend money on local accommodation, transportation, food and other services. In 2023/2024, student fees accounted for 42.1% of revenue at Canadian colleges, rising to 64.5% in Ontario. International students often pay considerably higher tuition than domestic students, leaving institutions that expanded their reliance on overseas enrolment particularly exposed to declining intake. Reduced enrolment can put pressure on institutional budgets, course availability, staffing and businesses surrounding major campuses.

Fewer International Students Are Changing Rental Markets

The reduction in international students is also beginning to reshape rental housing markets, particularly in communities surrounding colleges and universities. According to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2025 Rental Market Report, declining international migration contributed to softer rental demand in the Greater Toronto Area. In Downsview, a Toronto neighbourhood containing York University’s Keele campus and two colleges, the vacancy rate for purpose-built rental apartments increased from 0.7% in 2023 to 3.1% in 2025. Several post-secondary neighbourhoods in Mississauga and Brampton recorded vacancy rates exceeding 4%.

More recent figures suggest that rental conditions have continued to change. Statistics Canada reported that the average asking rent for a two-bedroom apartment across Canadian metropolitan areas fell by 3.6% year over year to $2,130 in the second quarter of 2026. However, the trend varies considerably between cities, and declining international student enrolment is only one contributing factor. While reduced demand may improve rental options in some communities, it does not automatically resolve Canada’s broader housing affordability challenges.

A Smaller Young Adult Population Could Change the Labour Market

Canada’s changing demographics could have important implications for employers, particularly businesses that recruit students and recent graduates. A Global Affairs Canada study estimated that international students spent approximately $47.5 billion on tuition, accommodation and other expenses in 2024. That spending generated an estimated $39 billion in economic activity measured as GDP and directly or indirectly supported approximately 407,000 jobs. Those figures reflect conditions before the latest enrolment declines, rather than the economic contribution of students currently living in Canada.
The changes are occurring alongside a labour market that remains challenging for many young Canadians. Statistics Canada’s August 2026 Labour Force Survey reported an unemployment rate of 12.9% among people aged 15 to 24, down from 14.3% a year earlier but still above the 2017-to-2019 average of 10.8%. A smaller population of young adults could reduce competition for certain entry-level jobs while also shrinking the pool of potential employees. However, the demographic figures alone cannot establish how much of the recent employment change is attributable to immigration restrictions.

Ontario Is Experiencing a Particularly Large Decline in International Enrolment

The impact of Canada’s changing immigration patterns is not evenly distributed across the country. Ontario has experienced a particularly pronounced reduction in international student enrolment. Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimates indicate that the province had approximately 92,000 fewer full-time international students attending public post-secondary institutions in 2025/2026 than in 2023/2024, representing a decline of roughly 36%. During the same two-year period, estimated international student enrolment fell by 26% in Atlantic Canada, 24% in British Columbia, 17% in the Prairie provinces and 14% in Quebec.
The latest population estimates also reveal different patterns of provincial growth. Between July 2025 and July 2026, Alberta recorded the fastest population growth among the provinces at 1.5%. By comparison, Ontario grew by just 0.3%, Quebec by 0.2% and British Columbia by 0.1%. Statistics Canada notes that Canada’s three largest provinces generally receive substantial numbers of international migrants, making them particularly sensitive to changes in migration levels. These regional differences mean that the effects on campuses, local businesses and rental markets are likely to vary substantially.

Canada’s Aging Population Is Becoming More Apparent

The decline among people in their 20s is occurring as Canada resumes its longer-term demographic trend toward an older population. On July 1, 2026, the country’s median age reached 40.9 years, while the average age stood at 42.1 years. Both measures increased by 0.3 years compared with the previous July. People aged 65 and older represented 20% of the population, up 0.6 percentage points over the year, while children aged 14 and younger accounted for just 15%.

Lower international migration has contributed to the change because newcomers tend to be younger than the overall Canadian population. However, immigration is only one part of the demographic picture. Separate Statistics Canada figures released on September 23 show that Canada’s fertility rate remained at 1.26 children per woman in 2025, matching the historic low recorded in 2024. Together, low fertility, population aging and reduced arrivals of young adults raise longer-term questions about workforce renewal, retirement, healthcare demand and the country’s future age structure.

The Latest Population Figures Are Preliminary, With More Changes Ahead

Although the decline of nearly 155,000 people in their 20s is substantial, Statistics Canada emphasizes that the latest demographic estimates remain preliminary. The agency introduced two methodological adjustments in its September 2026 release to improve how it measures non-permanent residents. These include using Canada Border Services Agency entry and exit information to better estimate departures and improving its accounting for people who remain in Canada while permit extension applications are being processed. Historical population estimates dating back to July 2021 have also been updated.
Canada’s immigration policies will remain an important factor in how the population changes over the next several years. The federal government’s 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan aims to reduce non-permanent residents to less than 5% of the population by the end of 2027. Meanwhile, Statistics Canada is scheduled to release the first population counts from the 2026 Census in February 2027, followed by age and gender data in May. Those releases, alongside future quarterly estimates, will provide a clearer picture of whether the decline among young adults continues, stabilizes or reverses.

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