B.C. Conservative Leader Stakes Her Leadership on Abbotsford-Mission Vote After Nine MLAs Leave Party

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Kerry-Lynne Findlay entered the B.C. Conservative leadership promising to turn the party’s dramatic 2024 breakthrough into a government-in-waiting. Barely three months later, her immediate challenge is more personal: winning a seat in the legislature while trying to hold a fractured caucus together. The September 26 Abbotsford-Mission byelection has become a de facto referendum on her leadership after nine MLAs abandoned the party under her watch. Findlay has not tied the result to a formal resignation pledge, but former colleagues are openly questioning her electability and judgment. With an experienced NDP opponent, a newly emerging party formed by Conservative defectors and allegations surrounding efforts to secure a legislative seat hanging over the campaign, what would ordinarily be a relatively contained Fraser Valley contest now carries province-wide consequences.

The Byelection Has Become Much More Than a Race for One Seat

Abbotsford-Mission voters will choose their next MLA on September 26, with six days of advance voting scheduled from September 18 through September 23. The vacancy emerged after Conservative MLA Reann Gasper resigned, clearing the way for Findlay, who won the party leadership without holding a provincial seat, to seek entry into the legislature. Elections BC says this is the first provincial byelection since British Columbia’s closely fought 2024 general election.

Under ordinary circumstances, a party leader contesting a seat previously held by the same party would begin with a significant advantage. This campaign is anything but ordinary. Nine Conservative MLAs have departed since Findlay became leader, several explicitly citing concerns about her leadership. Abbotsford South MLA Bruce Banman went further, publicly calling Findlay unelectable and suggesting that a defeat in the byelection should lead to her resignation. That makes the local result an unusually direct measure of whether Findlay can persuade voters while her own former colleagues are questioning her ability to lead.

Findlay Started With a Mandate That Was Narrow From the Beginning

Findlay became Conservative leader on May 30 after one of the closest leadership contests the party could have produced. Official party results show she defeated Caroline Elliott on the fourth ballot by 4,696.51 electoral-district points to 4,514.49. The raw fourth-ballot vote was even tighter: 10,907 votes for Findlay compared with 10,847 for Elliott. Such a narrow victory inevitably left a substantial portion of the membership backing someone else when the contest ended.

There was, however, an encouraging local signal for Findlay. In Abbotsford-Mission, Conservative members awarded her 55.37 per cent of the final-round leadership points, compared with Elliott’s 44.63 per cent. That does not predict how the broader electorate will vote, but it shows Findlay was not entering entirely hostile territory within the party. Her challenge is that leadership races involve committed party members, while byelections involve thousands of voters with concerns extending well beyond internal Conservative politics. Winning the membership was the first test; securing a public mandate in the middle of a caucus revolt is considerably harder.

Reann Gasper’s Departure Created an Opening — and More Questions

Gasper announced in August that she would relinquish Abbotsford-Mission so Findlay could seek a legislative seat. Gasper said the choice was hers and that nobody had asked her to resign, describing the decision as putting the party’s larger goal ahead of her own position. Elections BC subsequently received formal notice of her resignation on August 24. Within days, however, Gasper joined Findlay’s staff, initially as deputy chief of staff and later replacing departing chief of staff Chris Delaney.

The sequence attracted particular attention because audio had emerged from an earlier Conservative caucus gathering in which Findlay discussed the possibility of an MLA who stepped aside continuing in a senior advisory capacity. Findlay has strongly rejected suggestions that the discussion amounted to illegal or unethical conduct, calling the accusations against her baseless and describing the controversy as an effort to derail her campaign. Gasper has likewise maintained that her resignation was voluntary. Those distinctions matter: criticism and allegations surrounding the arrangement are documented, but they are not the same as a judicial finding or proven criminal wrongdoing.

Nine MLA Departures Turned Internal Friction Into a Full Caucus Crisis

The speed of the exodus has been extraordinary. Peter Milobar left on August 14, followed by Ian Paton, Rosalyn Bird, Teresa Wat, Brennan Day, Bruce Banman, Áʼa:líya Warbus, Donegal Wilson and Scott McInnis. By September 2, nine legislators had quit the Conservative ranks since Findlay’s leadership victory. Their ridings stretch from Richmond and Delta through the Fraser Valley to Kamloops, Prince George and southeastern British Columbia, making the revolt difficult to dismiss as the product of one regional dispute.

The broader numerical decline is even larger because the Conservatives had already experienced departures before Findlay became leader. Elections BC confirmed that the party elected 44 MLAs in the 2024 general election, only three fewer than the NDP’s 47. By the time Wilson and McInnis departed, reporting based on the legislature’s composition put the remaining Conservative caucus at 28. Gasper’s resignation is separate from the nine defections because she left the legislature rather than quitting to sit elsewhere. Collectively, the changes have transformed what was once a 44-seat opposition force into a substantially smaller caucus.

The Rebels Are Challenging Findlay’s Management as Well as Her Politics

The departing MLAs have offered different explanations, but several themes recur. Milobar cited a lack of ideological alignment. Paton said the party’s direction no longer fit his beliefs. Day said he had lost confidence in Findlay’s judgment, conduct and ethical standards, while McInnis criticized staffing decisions, caucus relations and what he described as an increasingly exclusive political culture. Wilson said communication between the leader and her caucus had broken down and that she could not campaign for Findlay in Abbotsford-Mission.

Some departing members have also raised concerns about reported connections between people in Findlay’s political organization and Alberta separatist activism. Those claims have become particularly sensitive at a time when Canadian unity remains politically charged. Findlay has rejected the broader portrayal of her organization as illegitimate or extremist and argues that internal disagreements should not distract from issues such as affordability, crime, housing, health care and economic development. The significance of the departures is therefore not that every former MLA agrees on every complaint, but that nine independently concluded they could no longer remain under the same leader.

RCMP Contact Has Added a Legal Dimension to the Political Drama

The dispute became more serious when former Conservative MLA Ian Paton said the RCMP had asked to interview him. Paton has alleged that Findlay’s then-chief of staff told him he could receive an advisory position for two years, with compensation equivalent to his MLA salary, if he resigned his Delta South seat to create a byelection opportunity for Findlay. Paton did not resign at the time and later left the Conservative caucus.

The RCMP has been cautious publicly. Police have said they were aware of material circulating about the controversy, while generally declining to confirm or deny investigations or identify potential subjects before charges are laid. No criminal charge against Findlay has been established in the sources reviewed. Federal law nevertheless explains why the allegations receive scrutiny: Section 124 of the Criminal Code prohibits selling or purchasing an appointment or resignation from public office through a reward or profit, with a maximum five-year prison term for an indictable conviction. Findlay says her discussions were legitimate political conversations and categorically denies illegal or unethical conduct.

Abbotsford-Mission Favors Conservatives, but Its Recent History Is Competitive

The riding gives Findlay an electoral cushion, although not an impregnable one. In the 2024 provincial election, Gasper captured 13,523 votes, or 55.38 per cent, while NDP incumbent Pam Alexis received 10,894 votes, or 44.62 per cent. The gap was 2,629 votes. Those numbers made Abbotsford-Mission a clear Conservative victory, but the NDP still retained a substantial base exceeding four voters in every 10 who cast a valid ballot.

Its history also offers the NDP a reason to compete seriously. Alexis won the predecessor contest in 2020, taking 41.07 per cent while the then-BC Liberal candidate received 38.12 per cent. The Conservatives were a much smaller force at the time, attracting 7.88 per cent. British Columbia’s party system subsequently changed dramatically, culminating in the Conservatives replacing the former BC United coalition as the principal challenger to the NDP in 2024. Findlay therefore inherits a riding that recently swung strongly Conservative but has also elected her current NDP opponent before. A dissatisfied Conservative voter does not automatically become an NDP voter, making turnout especially important.

Pam Alexis Gives the NDP an Opponent With Deep Local Recognition

The NDP has selected Pam Alexis, turning the contest into a rematch of sorts between the governing party and the Conservative organization that defeated her two years ago. Alexis represented Abbotsford-Mission after her 2020 victory and later served as B.C.’s minister of agriculture and food. Before entering provincial politics, she was mayor of Mission. Those roles give her a degree of local familiarity that is valuable in a short byelection campaign where candidates have limited time to introduce themselves.

Five candidates were officially confirmed by Elections BC after nominations closed. Alongside Alexis and Findlay are Green candidate Stephen Fowler, CentreBC candidate Lakhwinder Jhaj and Libertarian Jeff Monds. Fowler is also familiar with the riding: he previously contested Abbotsford-Mission for the Greens and works as a teacher in Abbotsford. The five-way field makes the contest more complicated than the two-candidate 2024 race. Smaller parties may not need to come close to winning to matter; in a tightening contest, several hundred or a few thousand votes moving away from either major contender can alter the final margin.

Five Conservative Defectors Are Already Building a Rival Provincial Party

The political consequences of the revolt will continue regardless of what happens in Abbotsford-Mission. On September 4, five former Conservative MLAs announced plans to sit together in a new, not-yet-named provincial party. Peter Milobar and Ian Paton were joined by Rosalyn Bird, Bruce Banman and Áʼa:líya Warbus. The group intends to conduct a leadership vote before the legislature returns on October 5, with Milobar acting as interim leader during the organizing period.

With five MLAs, the group expects to operate with official third-party status, placing it ahead of the two-member Green caucus numerically. Its founders say they want to provide what they call a stable alternative for voters dissatisfied with both the NDP and Findlay’s Conservatives, emphasizing affordability, health care, taxation, resource development and property rights. That is strategically dangerous for the Conservatives because the new organization is not primarily competing for traditional NDP voters. Its founders are former members of the same opposition coalition Findlay needs to rebuild, meaning every successful recruitment effort could make Conservative reunification more difficult.

A Victory Could Stabilize Findlay — but a Defeat Would Intensify the Pressure

Winning Abbotsford-Mission would solve one immediate problem for Findlay: she would finally have a seat in the legislature and be able to confront Premier David Eby directly from the floor of the chamber. It would also allow her allies to argue that ordinary voters, rather than disgruntled former caucus members, delivered the most relevant verdict on her leadership. Given that she inherited a party without a legislative seat of her own, simply entering the House would strengthen her practical ability to function as Opposition leader.

A victory, however, would not reverse nine defections or dissolve the new five-member party. A loss would be considerably harder to contain. Banman has already said he believes Findlay is unelectable and suggested she should resign if his prediction of defeat proves correct. Other departing MLAs have framed the byelection as a reason they could no longer remain in caucus. Findlay has not publicly committed to resign automatically if defeated, so the decision would remain hers and the party’s. Politically, though, losing a Conservative-held Fraser Valley seat created specifically for the leader would make questions about her viability almost impossible to avoid.

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