66% of Quebecers Back Counter-Tariffs Even if Prices Rise as Liberals Slip to Third

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Quebec’s election campaign is developing around an unusual political bargain: many voters appear willing to accept some financial pain if it means Canada pushes back against U.S. trade pressure. Fresh Léger findings show 66% of Quebecers still support counter-tariffs on selected American goods even when higher Canadian prices are explicitly mentioned.

That resistance is reshaping the provincial race as well. The Parti Québécois leads with 29%, but Christine Fréchette’s Coalition Avenir Québec has climbed into second at 24%, pushing Charles Milliard’s Quebec Liberals to third at 22%. With the October 5 election approaching and more than four in ten decided voters still open to changing their minds, the tariff fight has become both an economic test and a campaign opportunity.

The 66% Number Shows Support Survives the Pocketbook Test

Support for retaliation is considerably stronger when voters are first asked about the principle alone. Léger found 78% of Quebecers agreed with Ottawa’s decision to impose new tariffs on certain American imports, compared with just 11% who disagreed. The more revealing result came when respondents were reminded of the potential consequence. Fully 80% believed those tariffs would raise prices for Canadian consumers, meaning most people supporting retaliation were not assuming it would be economically painless.

When Léger explicitly asked whether the measures should remain even if some Canadian prices increased, support slipped—but only to 66%. Another 20% opposed the tariffs under that scenario, while 13% were unsure or declined to answer. That gap matters politically. It suggests much of the province currently views retaliation as more than a symbolic gesture. For a substantial majority, accepting at least some higher prices appears to be considered an acceptable cost of resisting Washington’s trade actions.

Those Higher Prices Are More Than a Hypothetical Risk

Canada’s latest countermeasures are scheduled to take effect September 8. The federal government says tariffs of 15%, 25% and 50% will apply to U.S.-origin products covering $27.6 billion in imports, matching American measures dollar for dollar. Targeted categories include steel and aluminum products, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, plastics and electronics. The precise impact at a checkout counter will vary because companies can absorb costs, change suppliers or pass some of the tariff directly to customers.

Recent Canadian experience shows why voters are expecting an effect. Bank of Canada researchers examining the 2025 counter-tariff episode found prices for affected products eventually rose about 6% more than comparable untariffed goods. That represented roughly one-quarter of the 25% tariff being passed through to retail prices and contributed an estimated 0.3 percentage points to consumer-price inflation. The researchers also found prices moved back toward previous relative levels after most counter-tariffs were removed.

Tariffs Matter to Voters—But They Do Not Dominate Everything

The trade confrontation is clearly registering in Quebec, although it has not swallowed the entire provincial campaign. Léger found 10% of respondents considered Donald Trump’s tariffs the single most important issue in the election, while another 53% regarded them as one of several important issues. Combined, nearly two-thirds therefore placed the trade dispute somewhere near the top of their political considerations.

That distinction helps explain why a strong position against Washington can help a party without guaranteeing victory. Only one voter in ten is treating tariffs as the overriding question. Housing affordability, living costs, immigration, public finances, employment and other provincial responsibilities are simultaneously competing for attention. Provincial leaders therefore face a delicate task: appearing capable of protecting Quebec businesses and workers from the trade conflict without turning an election over hospitals, homes and household budgets into a one-issue campaign. Tariffs may influence how voters judge leadership, but they are unlikely to erase dissatisfaction on unrelated files.

The CAQ Has Found an Opening in the Trade Fight

Christine Fréchette’s CAQ has benefited most visibly from the changing environment. Léger puts the governing party at 24%, up one point from its previous reading and now alone in second place. Separate Pallas Data numbers released just before Léger produced the same 29%-24%-22% order for the PQ, CAQ and Liberals, with Pallas showing the CAQ five points higher than in its previous spring measurement.

The trade confrontation also plays directly into Fréchette’s strongest leadership rating. When Quebecers were asked which provincial leader they trusted most to defend Quebec’s interests and confront Trump’s tariffs, Fréchette ranked first at 21%. PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon followed closely at 19%, while Liberal Leader Charles Milliard was at 11%. The advantage is hardly overwhelming, but it helps explain why the CAQ has foregrounded Washington during the opening days of the campaign, portraying Trump and his economic policies as a central external threat facing Quebec.

The Quebec Liberals Have Been Pushed Back Into Third

For Charles Milliard, the newest numbers are uncomfortable because the Liberal decline coincides with the CAQ’s recovery. Léger places the Quebec Liberal Party at 22%, one point lower than its August 24 measurement and two points behind the governing CAQ. In mid-June, Léger had the Liberals at 27% and the CAQ at 21%. Pallas Data similarly puts the Liberals at 22%, six points below the support it measured earlier in the year.

The picture is more complicated than a simple collapse. The provincial Liberals won only 14.37% of valid ballots in the 2022 general election, meaning their present province-wide support remains considerably above their last election result. Their challenge is where that support sits. Léger found the party extraordinarily strong among non-francophones, at 57%, but only 10% among francophones. It also registered 30% around metropolitan Montreal, compared with 12% around Quebec City and 13% elsewhere in Quebec. Concentrated support can protect seats while making province-wide growth difficult.

The PQ Still Leads, but the Tariff Fight Gives the CAQ Room to Compete

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s Parti Québécois remains the party every rival is trying to catch. Léger has the PQ at 29%, down one point but still five points ahead of the CAQ. Pallas Data independently put it at the same 29%. The lead is meaningful, but it is not the sort of runaway advantage that allows a campaign to coast through its final weeks, particularly while another party is beginning to gain traction on one of the campaign’s emerging issues.

The leadership numbers show why tariffs create an opportunity for the CAQ. St-Pierre Plamondon scored 19% when voters were asked who could best defend Quebec and confront Trump, two points behind Fréchette. His strongest issue in Léger’s comparison was immigration, where 22% chose him. The PQ therefore enters the campaign with the overall voting-intention lead but without ownership of the trade issue. That leaves room for Fréchette to argue that governing experience and economic management matter more during an unpredictable confrontation with the United States.

Older Voters Are Far More Willing to Accept the Cost

The overall 66% support figure conceals substantial differences by age. Once possible price increases were placed directly into the question, 79% of respondents aged 55 and older still backed counter-tariffs. Support among both 18-to-34-year-olds and those aged 35 to 54 was only 57%. Opposition was also higher among the middle-aged group, at 26%, compared with 13% among those 55 and older.

Partisan differences are even sharper. Among identified CAQ supporters, 83% accepted counter-tariffs even with higher prices. Support was 78% among Québec solidaire voters, 77% among PQ supporters and 76% among Liberal supporters. Conservative Party of Quebec voters were the exception: only 33% supported tariffs after the price warning, while 55% opposed them. The results show that retaliation currently crosses several ideological and partisan lines, but the coalition behind it is not universal. Younger households and provincial Conservative voters appear substantially more reluctant to absorb additional consumer costs.

Strong Support for Retaliation Does Not Mean Voters Have Settled on a Party

One of the most important numbers in the Léger findings has nothing directly to do with tariffs. Among decided voters, 42% said their current choice was not final and they could still support another party. That creates a large pool of persuadable voters at a time when only seven percentage points separate the first-place PQ from the third-place Liberals.

Commitment also varies significantly between parties. Léger found 65% of Conservative voters considered their decision final, followed by 61% of PQ voters and 60% of Liberal voters. Only 44% of CAQ supporters said the same, while the figure dropped to 39% for Québec solidaire. That makes the CAQ’s recent rise especially interesting: Fréchette has captured more support, but much of it remains movable. A badly handled debate, unpopular promise or escalation in consumer prices could loosen those gains. Conversely, another confrontation with Washington could reinforce the governing party’s argument that experienced economic management is suddenly more important.

The Political Map Has Been Turned Upside Down Since 2022

The current standings look dramatically different from the election that gave the CAQ its second consecutive majority. In 2022, François Legault’s CAQ received 40.98% of valid votes and elected 90 MNAs. Québec solidaire won 15.43% and 11 seats, the PQ received 14.61% but elected only three members, while the Liberals won 14.37% and 21 seats. Éric Duhaime’s Conservatives captured 12.91% but failed to win a seat.

Four years later, Léger has the PQ close to double its 2022 vote share at 29%, while the CAQ is roughly 17 percentage points below its election result. The Liberals are substantially higher than their 2022 popular vote yet sitting third in current voting intentions. Those comparisons also illustrate why provincial percentages cannot simply be converted into seat totals. Quebec elects members riding by riding, and geographically concentrated Liberal, Conservative or PQ support can produce very different outcomes from an evenly distributed province-wide vote.

September 8 Could Become the Campaign’s Next Economic Test

The calendar gives the tariff issue unusual political significance. Canada’s new counter-tariffs are scheduled to begin September 8, less than a month before Quebec’s October 5 election. That means voters could start seeing business warnings, supplier changes or price adjustments while the campaign is still underway. The actual consumer impact will not necessarily be immediate or uniform, but previous Bank of Canada research shows that tariff costs can gradually work their way into retail prices when businesses believe the measures will persist.

That creates risk for every provincial party. Fréchette can benefit while retaliation is viewed as firmness, but the CAQ could face a harder conversation if household costs become the dominant story. The PQ must defend its lead while demonstrating credibility on an issue where Fréchette currently scores slightly better. Milliard’s Liberals need to regain momentum without appearing weaker toward Washington. For now, 66% of Quebecers appear prepared to tolerate some cost. The campaign may determine how durable that willingness really is.

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