Ford Government Plans Three U.S. Trade Trips in January as Trump Retains Veto Power Over Tariff Repeal

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Ontario is preparing another diplomatic push into the United States as Premier Doug Ford’s government looks for opportunities to ease the escalating trade dispute with Washington. Economic Development Minister Vic Fedeli plans three American visits in January 2027, hoping to capitalize on a changing political landscape after Democrats secured control of Congress in the November midterm elections.

However, the political shift does not guarantee an end to President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The president retains significant executive authority and can veto congressional legislation intended to repeal trade restrictions. For Ontario’s manufacturers, exporters and workers, the stakes extend far beyond political negotiations. With billions of dollars in cross-border trade and thousands of jobs exposed to tariff uncertainty, the coming months could prove critical for the province’s economic future.

Ontario Plans Three U.S. Trade Visits as New Lawmakers Take Office

Ontario Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade Minister Vic Fedeli announced on November 6 that he intends to travel to the United States three times in January 2027. The visits are part of Premier Doug Ford’s strategy to strengthen relationships with American political leaders and advocate for a more favourable trading environment. Fedeli explained that the province wants to engage newly elected lawmakers after they are sworn into office, when they will have the authority to participate directly in congressional decisions. The timing reflects Ontario’s determination to establish relationships with politicians who could influence future trade legislation, particularly as the economic consequences of tariffs become increasingly visible in American communities.

The announcement represents an effort to turn political developments in Washington into practical opportunities for Ontario businesses. However, detailed itineraries, confirmed meetings and specific negotiating objectives have not been publicly established. Provincial representatives can encourage lawmakers to support tariff reductions, promote cross-border investment and communicate the consequences of trade barriers, but they cannot independently negotiate a replacement for Canada’s federal trade agreements. The ultimate effectiveness of the three visits will depend on whether American officials are willing to translate discussions into legislative proposals, administrative decisions or sustained pressure on the White House.

Democratic Midterm Victories Create a New Opportunity for Canada

The November 3, 2026, U.S. midterm elections substantially changed the political balance in Washington, with Democrats securing majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The results created an opening for Canadian officials hoping to challenge Trump’s trade agenda. Several prominent Democrats have identified tariffs on Canadian goods as a priority for congressional action. Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon, who is expected to lead the Senate Finance Committee, has discussed legislation aimed at reversing the restrictions. Michigan senator-elect Abdul El-Sayed has also expressed opposition to the tariffs, reflecting concerns in a state whose automotive industry depends heavily on integrated North American manufacturing.

For Ontario, the shift offers an opportunity to engage lawmakers who may be more receptive to arguments about the economic costs of trade restrictions. Representatives from manufacturing states have reasons to examine how tariffs affect production expenses, consumer prices and industrial employment. Democratic control will also provide greater opportunities to hold congressional hearings, investigate tariff policies and question administration officials. Nevertheless, gaining control of Congress is not equivalent to gaining control of American trade policy. The incoming lawmakers will face procedural obstacles, Republican opposition and the continuing authority of President Trump.

Trump’s Presidential Veto Remains a Major Obstacle

Although Democrats will control Congress, President Trump retains the constitutional authority to reject legislation passed by both chambers. Under the American legislative process, a president can veto a bill seeking to repeal tariffs or restrict executive trade powers. Congress can overcome that decision only with a two-thirds majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Assuming all seats are filled and all members vote, that would require 290 representatives and 67 senators. Democratic victories have strengthened opposition to Trump’s trade agenda, but they have not produced the overwhelming congressional support needed to guarantee an override.

The challenge is particularly significant because American presidents exercise tariff powers delegated to them through several federal statutes. Reuters reported that trade specialists expect the Trump administration to retain considerable freedom to pursue its policies despite the Democratic takeover. Many Senate measures also face procedural hurdles, including the typical 60-vote threshold needed to end a filibuster. For Ontario, the distinction is important. Congressional opposition could strengthen Canada’s negotiating position, but an actual tariff repeal may still require Republican cooperation, a change in White House policy or a successful legal challenge. Political momentum alone cannot remove the existing duties.

Ontario’s Dependence on American Trade Makes the Stakes Enormous

Ontario’s commercial relationship with the United States explains why the provincial government continues investing significant political effort in Washington. According to Ontario’s 2026 Fall Economic Statement, the province exported approximately $190.3 billion worth of merchandise to the United States in 2025. That represented 71.6% of Ontario’s international merchandise exports. The relationship extends across automotive manufacturing, industrial machinery, metals and numerous other industries. For companies built around American customers, changes in tariffs can affect pricing, delivery schedules and decisions about where future production should take place.

Statistics Canada data provides another perspective on that dependence. In 2025, approximately 19,489 Ontario exporting establishments sold goods to the United States, representing 85.9% of the province’s goods-exporting establishments. These figures show that the relationship is not limited to major multinational manufacturers. Smaller suppliers and specialized businesses also depend on American demand. An Ontario manufacturer that has spent years developing customers across the border cannot necessarily replace those sales by entering another international market overnight. Building distribution networks, meeting regulatory requirements and establishing trusted relationships take time, making predictable access to the United States especially valuable.

Canada’s Tariff Exposure Is Increasing Despite Major Exemptions

The scale of the trade dispute becomes clearer when examining how American tariffs are applied. In its October 2026 Monetary Policy Report, the Bank of Canada estimated that the average U.S. tariff rate on Canadian goods had increased to 7.5%, compared with 5% in July. However, approximately 80% of Canadian merchandise exports to the United States remained tariff-free. Much of that protection reflects exemptions connected to the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement, commonly known as CUSMA. The distinction is important because the overall average disguises substantial differences between industries. Some exporters continue operating without additional duties, while others face tariffs large enough to make their products significantly less competitive.

The Bank of Canada also identified American tariffs of 50% imposed under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 on certain Canadian products, including machinery, plastics, furniture and wood and paper goods. Some duties apply even to otherwise CUSMA-compliant products, and certain tariffs can be added to existing charges. Canada responded with counter-tariffs covering approximately $28 billion in American goods, contributing to an estimated average Canadian tariff rate of 3.9% on U.S. imports in October. These overlapping restrictions complicate supply chains and raise costs for companies that depend on imported materials. Ontario’s diplomatic challenge is therefore broader than eliminating one specific tariff.

Ontario’s Automotive Industry Faces Mounting Economic Pressure

Few industries illustrate the importance of stable Canada–U.S. trade more clearly than automotive manufacturing. Ontario’s 2026 Fall Economic Statement reported that automobile exports to the United States totalled approximately $34.5 billion during the first eight months of 2026, down 13.7% from $39.9 billion during the corresponding period in 2024. The sector employed more than 100,000 people in Ontario in 2025, excluding many additional jobs supported throughout the supply chain. The decline in exports reflects the difficult environment facing an industry already navigating changing consumer demand, investment decisions and a major transition in vehicle technology.

The consequences extend beyond vehicle assembly plants. Ontario’s automotive production network includes parts manufacturers, engineering firms, logistics companies and equipment suppliers. Toyota’s production of the next-generation hybrid RAV4 in Cambridge and Woodstock demonstrates the province’s continuing importance to North American manufacturing. Ford Motor Company is also retooling its Oakville Assembly Complex for F-Series Super Duty production, a project associated with approximately 1,800 direct jobs. These investments require long-term planning and confidence in future market access. Persistent tariffs make decisions about factory upgrades, product allocations and supplier contracts more complicated, particularly when manufacturers can compare production costs across several North American locations.

Steel Producers and Smaller Manufacturers Are Already Feeling the Damage

Ontario’s steel industry faces especially severe challenges as American duties disrupt a market that has historically supported thousands of industrial jobs. Provincial figures show that Ontario exported approximately $4.1 billion in steel products to the United States during the first eight months of 2026, compared with $8.4 billion during the same period in 2024. That represents a decline of 50.6%. The industry employed more than 16,000 people in Ontario in 2025, with additional employment supported by transportation, maintenance and manufacturing services. Declining export opportunities can place pressure on production schedules, investment decisions and the communities that depend on major industrial employers.

Smaller manufacturers face similar pressures, often with fewer financial resources to absorb them. Reuters reported in November that Ontario-based Muskoka Cabinet Company had reduced its workforce by 40% from a previous 70 employees and was operating only three days per week. Its president described an industry struggling with American tariffs alongside competition from lower-priced imports. The example demonstrates how trade uncertainty reaches beyond major steel mills and automakers. For a smaller manufacturer, reduced orders can mean cutting shifts, delaying equipment purchases or losing experienced employees. Even when tariffs are not the only cause of financial difficulties, they can intensify problems that businesses are already struggling to manage.

January 1 Brings Another Important Tariff Deadline

Ontario’s planned trade missions are approaching alongside a significant tariff deadline. Reuters reported on November 5 that American tariffs on Canadian kitchen cabinets were scheduled to increase from 25% to 50% on January 1, 2027. The report also identified a scheduled increase affecting the automotive sector. These developments have created particular anxiety among manufacturers already operating under substantial trade restrictions. Cabico, a Canadian cabinet manufacturer with facilities in Quebec and Ontario, reported that its U.S. shipment volumes had declined 25% from 2024 levels. The company had also laid off more than one-quarter of its approximately 700 employees, highlighting the financial pressure facing businesses with substantial American exposure.

The timing creates an immediate challenge for the Ford government. Because Fedeli’s three visits are scheduled for January, some additional duties could already be in effect before Ontario representatives meet the new congressional leadership. That makes diplomatic activity before the new year particularly important. Fedeli has emphasized preventing another escalation rather than simply responding after businesses suffer further losses. A tariff increase can immediately alter the economics of an export contract, while reversing the damage to customer relationships may take much longer. Ontario will therefore be seeking both short-term protection from additional restrictions and a more durable agreement that reduces uncertainty for businesses making decisions throughout 2027.

Carney Maintains Federal Control Over Canada–U.S. Trade Negotiations

Despite Ontario’s expanding diplomatic efforts, Prime Minister Mark Carney has emphasized that formal trade negotiations must remain under federal leadership. Speaking on November 10, Carney said the Trump administration would continue to be the central decision-maker on American trade agreements, regardless of the Democratic victories in Congress. He also stressed the importance of having one Canadian government lead negotiations, responding to plans by Quebec officials to engage directly with American political representatives. The position reflects a distinction between provincial advocacy and the federal government’s responsibility for negotiating international trade agreements. Ontario can promote its economic priorities, but it cannot independently establish a new national trade agreement with Washington.

The distinction does not prevent provincial leaders from playing an influential supporting role. Ontario’s extensive manufacturing relationships give Ford and Fedeli opportunities to communicate directly with American businesses, governors and legislators affected by the trade conflict. Federal Canada–U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc has indicated that the midterm election results will not fundamentally change Ottawa’s negotiating approach. Carney has also welcomed efforts by Democrats to restore freer trade while acknowledging that difficult issues remain unresolved. For Ontario businesses, coordination between provincial advocacy and federal negotiations will be essential. Competing messages could complicate discussions, while a consistent strategy could strengthen Canada’s arguments for reduced tariffs and predictable market access.

The Unresolved CUSMA Review Adds Another Layer of Uncertainty

The dispute is unfolding against the backdrop of an unresolved review of the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement. On July 1, 2026, representatives of the three countries participated in the agreement’s scheduled joint review. The United States subsequently announced that it would not renew CUSMA in its existing form, citing concerns about the agreement’s operation and broader trade relationships. Importantly, the decision did not immediately terminate the agreement. The U.S. Trade Representative confirmed that CUSMA remains in force while governments continue addressing outstanding issues. That distinction matters for companies relying on existing North American trade rules, even as tariff measures have weakened some of the certainty those rules were intended to provide.

Further negotiations and consultations are expected to continue into 2027. On October 2, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative announced another public consultation process connected to the 2027 joint review, with submissions due January 12, 2027. The deadline falls during the same month as Fedeli’s planned American visits, creating an additional opportunity for Ontario to communicate its trade priorities. Automotive manufacturing, industrial supply chains and market access remain important subjects for businesses affected by the agreement’s future. However, the review process also demonstrates why Ontario cannot expect a single congressional meeting or short diplomatic mission to resolve every trade concern. The broader commercial relationship involves multiple governments, complex legislation and competing economic priorities.

Ontario Expands Financial Support as Businesses Adjust to Tariffs

While pursuing diplomatic solutions, Ontario and Ottawa have introduced measures intended to support industries facing prolonged trade disruption. On October 21, 2026, Premier Ford and Prime Minister Carney announced an $8.7-billion action plan to strengthen Ontario’s industrial economy. The measures included a joint steel initiative with approximately $5.22 billion in federal and provincial funding commitments, alongside $2.5 billion over two years to help automotive manufacturers modernize their production facilities. The agreement also included additional support for northern infrastructure and critical mineral development. These initiatives are intended to protect industrial capacity, support investment and reduce the economy’s vulnerability to changing American trade policies.

Ontario has also expanded existing financial assistance for tariff-affected businesses. The Protect Ontario Financing Program offers up to $1 billion in working-capital loans, while the $150-million Ontario Together Trade Fund supports companies seeking new customers, stronger domestic supply chains and additional markets. Businesses are already responding independently. An Ontario Chamber of Commerce survey involving 851 organizations found that nearly 40% had taken steps to diversify suppliers, pursue new markets or strengthen operations amid trade uncertainty. These measures may improve resilience, but they cannot fully replace predictable access to the American market. Financial assistance can help an employer maintain operations or invest in new equipment, while lasting tariff relief would address some of the underlying commercial pressure.

The Success of Ontario’s January Trips Will Depend on Concrete Results

The Ford government’s three January visits could provide opportunities to strengthen relationships with American lawmakers and business leaders, but their success will ultimately depend on measurable outcomes. Positive developments might include bipartisan support for tariff reductions, additional congressional scrutiny of existing trade measures or clearer commitments from Washington about future negotiations. Ontario could also benefit from stronger cooperation with American states whose manufacturers depend on Canadian inputs and customers. However, the political reality remains complicated. Even if Democrats advance legislation to reverse tariffs, President Trump can reject those measures, and overcoming his veto would require substantial support from both parties.

For Ontario’s business community, the most meaningful results would be fewer trade restrictions, greater certainty around future tariff rates and a more predictable environment for investment. Manufacturers need to plan production months or years in advance, while smaller exporters depend on stable prices and reliable customer relationships. A series of diplomatic meetings may help create the conditions for improvement, but it will not immediately eliminate the costs already imposed by the trade conflict. As January approaches, Ontario faces a balancing act: pursuing every opportunity for a negotiated breakthrough while preparing businesses for the possibility that American tariffs will remain in place. The three visits represent another attempt to influence Washington, not a guarantee that the trade war is nearing its end.

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