Trump’s Tariff War Wipes Out Vermont Cheesemaker’s Canadian Sales as Quebec Rival Abandons U.S. Exports

35,000+ smart investors are already getting financial news, market signals, and macro shifts in the economy that could impact their money next with our FREE weekly newsletter. Get ahead of what the crowd finds out too late. Click Here to Subscribe for FREE.

At Jasper Hill Farm in northern Vermont, the morning routine remains familiar: fresh milk arrives, cheesemakers work over their vats, and wheels of artisan cheese mature in underground cellars. What has changed dramatically is the business coming from across the Canadian border.

After years of cultivating Canadian customers, Vermont cheesemaker Mateo Kehler says President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war has destroyed a promising export market. Meanwhile, Quebec cheesemaker Jean Morin has stopped exporting his products to the United States, citing tariffs that made those sales too expensive.

Their experiences reveal the growing economic and personal consequences of deteriorating Canada-U.S. relations. Beyond higher import duties, political resentment, cancelled orders, rising production costs, and damaged business relationships are reshaping trade between two countries whose border communities have depended on each other for generations.

A Promising Canadian Market Collapses Almost Overnight

For Mateo Kehler, co-founder of Jasper Hill Farm in Greensboro, Vermont, the Canadian market represented years of patient investment. His company began exporting cheese to Canada in 2024 after spending roughly a decade building relationships with distributors, restaurants, and retailers. By the final quarter of that year, Canadian customers were purchasing approximately US$250,000 worth of its products. Kehler believed annual sales could exceed US$1 million within three years, giving his rural business an important source of international growth.

Those expectations unravelled after Trump began imposing tariffs and publicly challenging Canada’s sovereignty in 2025. Kehler reported that Canadian orders disappeared almost immediately, including a cancelled US$25,000 purchase from a distributor. Another order intended for the 2026 holiday season was subsequently withdrawn. By October 2026, he told CTV News that the business had lost hundreds of thousands of dollars in Canadian sales. The financial damage was particularly frustrating because the company had already invested considerable time and resources establishing a foothold in a market that had finally begun producing meaningful returns.

The Vermont Cheesemaker Built Its Reputation Over Two Decades

Jasper Hill Farm’s troubles are especially significant because the business was created to help preserve Vermont’s struggling dairy communities. Mateo and his brother Andy Kehler purchased an abandoned 200-acre farm in 1998, hoping to bring productive agriculture back to an area where traditional dairy operations were disappearing. Their first cheeses reached the market in 2003. Over time, the brothers developed an award-winning operation with a 22,000-square-foot underground aging facility and partnerships with neighbouring producers.

The company has earned recognition well beyond New England. Its Bayley Hazen Blue was named Best American Cheese at the 2024 World Cheese Awards, while Winnimere received Best of Show recognition from the American Cheese Society in 2026. Jasper Hill’s business model also allows it to pay participating dairy farms premiums above conventional commodity milk prices. That relationship makes lost exports particularly consequential. When customers disappear, the challenge extends beyond unsold cheese to the financial stability of farms, processors, and rural communities that depend on premium dairy production.

Quebec Cheesemaker Abandons U.S. Sales After Tariff Pressure

Across the border in Sainte-Élizabeth-de-Warwick, Quebec, Jean Morin has reached a similar crossroads. The founder of Fromagerie du Presbytère operates a distinctive family business that produces artisan cheese using milk from the nearby Ferme Louis d’Or. His operation includes a former Catholic church converted into an aging facility, where cheese wheels mature beneath the building’s steeple. Morin acquired the church in 2015, preserving an important local landmark while expanding production. His family’s dairy operation includes approximately 168 Holstein cows.

Unlike Jasper Hill, Morin’s company was not heavily dependent on American customers. U.S. exports represented approximately 2% of its business, or around US$100,000 annually. Nevertheless, Morin decided to discontinue shipments because American tariffs had made the market commercially unattractive. He also plans to stop participating in an American cheese competition in 2027 and has stopped travelling to the United States for personal visits. His decision reflects both financial calculations and frustration with Washington’s treatment of Canada. Even relatively small export markets can carry considerable importance when they represent years of relationship-building and international recognition.

Washington and Ottawa Escalate Their Tariff Fight

The dispute intensified significantly in 2026, when Trump introduced a new round of tariffs affecting billions of dollars in Canadian goods. In July, his administration announced additional duties of up to 50% under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930. After a brief suspension, the measures took effect on August 22. The administration argued that Canadian trade restrictions, particularly rules governing access to the country’s dairy market, unfairly disadvantaged American producers. Certain Canadian cheeses were among the products facing substantial new American import duties.

Canada responded with its own targeted countermeasures, effective September 8, covering approximately C$27.6 billion in American imports. Those measures included a 25% additional tariff on numerous categories of U.S. cheese, alongside rates of 15% and 50% on other goods. The resulting situation placed food producers in both countries under pressure, although the precise duties depended on the product and applicable trade classification. Instead of resolving market-access disagreements, the escalating restrictions made exporting more expensive and complicated for businesses operating on both sides of the border.

Canadian Consumer Backlash Creates Another Major Obstacle

Import taxes explain only part of Jasper Hill Farm’s disappearing Canadian business. Kehler believes Trump’s political rhetoric has been even more damaging than the tariffs themselves. Repeated suggestions that Canada should become America’s 51st state, combined with confrontational trade policies, encouraged some Canadian shoppers and retailers to reject American products. For a premium cheesemaker dependent on customer loyalty and distributor relationships, that kind of reaction can be devastating. A distributor may discontinue orders not simply because imported cheese costs more, but because shoppers no longer want to purchase it.

Public opinion research suggests this reluctance has remained widespread. An Abacus Data study released in October 2026 found that 77% of Canadians intended to avoid American products entirely or purchase as few as possible, almost unchanged from 78% in February 2025. The share reporting that they had already purchased more Canadian products increased from 53% to 61%. These findings help explain why businesses such as Jasper Hill are struggling to recover Canadian customers even after years of establishing brand recognition. Price matters, but political resentment has become another powerful influence on purchasing decisions.

Rising Equipment and Packaging Costs Deepen Vermont’s Losses

Losing Canadian buyers is only one part of Jasper Hill Farm’s financial difficulties. The company also purchases important manufacturing equipment and materials from Canada, exposing it to higher costs when goods cross south into Vermont. Kehler reported that imported stainless-steel brine tanks, fermenters, and cleaning equipment had encountered tariffs ranging from 15% to 100%, depending on the products involved. One ladder-and-platform system used in cheesemaking reportedly doubled in cost to US$50,000. Even paper wrappers and corrugated shipping boxes have become more expensive because their production involves Canadian wood pulp.

These additional expenses arrive at a particularly difficult moment for food manufacturers. Higher fuel costs associated with the war in Iran have increased expenses for farm machinery, transportation, and distribution. Jasper Hill has also experienced disruptions to exports beyond North America, including shipments to Asian and Australian customers that travelled through Dubai. Kehler says international sales once represented approximately 8% of the business but have now disappeared. Combined with the loss of Canadian customers, these pressures make it harder to offset rising production expenses through additional sales.

Rural Communities Face Consequences Beyond Export Revenue

For small agricultural communities, the consequences of a disrupted export relationship can extend far beyond the companies directly involved. Jasper Hill operates in Vermont’s Northeast Kingdom, a rural region where dairy farming has long shaped employment and the local economy. The company’s premium-cheese model supports neighbouring milk producers and other creameries through its manufacturing and aging facilities. Losing profitable customers can reduce the financial flexibility needed to maintain those relationships, purchase equipment, and support future investment.

In Quebec, Morin’s Fromagerie du Presbytère illustrates how specialty food production can become part of a community’s identity. The business helped restore an abandoned religious building and established a popular summer gathering known as Festive Fridays. What began with approximately 25 attendees in 2018 has grown into an event that can attract between 2,000 and 5,000 visitors on summer Fridays. The success supports local food culture and draws visitors to a village that might otherwise receive little national attention. Although Morin’s U.S. exports were modest, their disappearance demonstrates how international trade tensions can affect businesses whose value to their communities exceeds their export earnings.

Award-Winning Canadian Cheese Risks Losing Its U.S. Shelf Space

Canadian cheesemakers had been gaining international recognition just as the trade dispute began threatening their American customers. In 2024, Quebec’s Fromagerie la Station won the American Cheese Society’s top award with Raclette de Compton au Poivre, beating 1,595 other entries. The company repeated that success in 2025 with Alfred le Fermier, while Vermont’s Jasper Hill Farm finished second with its Withersbrook Blue. Fromagerie la Station is a separate business from Jean Morin’s Fromagerie du Presbytère, but its achievements illustrate the growing reputation of Canadian specialty cheeses.

That momentum is now under threat. James Hanly, a sales director at Vermont-based importer Provisions International, told CBC News that tariffs of 50% on certain Canadian cheeses had weakened demand in the United States. Higher import costs push retail prices upward, making shoppers less likely to choose unfamiliar premium products. The greater danger comes when stores stop carrying cheeses that no longer sell quickly enough. Winning an international award can persuade a retailer to stock a product, but maintaining that shelf space becomes much harder when trade policy makes it substantially more expensive.

Ontario Goat Cheese Producers Show How Large the Risk Can Become

The financial exposure is even greater for some Canadian producers. Mariposa Dairy, based in Lindsay, Ontario, sends close to 80% of its cheese production to the United States. Chief executive Mark Anderson says the company buys milk from approximately 200 dairy goat farmers who rely on the processor to turn their daily production into products that can be sold. Finding replacement customers for such large volumes would be extremely difficult. Unlike a retailer that can simply stop ordering an imported product, farmers must continue caring for their animals and managing milk production regardless of changing trade conditions.

Mariposa has been working with its farmers and American distributor, Gellert Global Group, to absorb some of the tariff costs rather than passing the full increase to shoppers. The arrangement is intended to preserve existing customers, but Anderson has warned that it cannot continue indefinitely. Gellert, which imports nearly US$80 million worth of Canadian cheese annually, faces potential duties approaching US$40 million. On October 20, 2026, the company filed a lawsuit in the U.S. Court of International Trade challenging Trump’s use of Section 338. The case remains pending, leaving producers and importers uncertain about how long the additional expenses will continue.

Trade Negotiations Cannot Instantly Rebuild Consumer Trust

There are signs that Washington and Ottawa may eventually find a way out of the dispute. On November 1, Trump said the two countries had reached the outlines of a potential trade agreement, although important details remained unresolved. Prime Minister Mark Carney acknowledged progress but stopped short of announcing a breakthrough. After Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress in the U.S. midterm elections, attention also turned to possible legislative efforts to reverse Trump’s tariffs. However, Carney emphasized on November 10 that the Trump administration remained Canada’s principal negotiating partner.

For cheesemakers, the political uncertainty is only part of the problem. Even a negotiated reduction in tariffs would not automatically restore cancelled orders, lost retail shelf space, or relationships strained by more than a year of confrontation. Kehler believes repairing the damage to Jasper Hill’s Canadian business could take a generation. Morin, meanwhile, has already concluded that selling cheese in the United States is no longer worthwhile under the current conditions. Both remain committed to making their products, but their experiences demonstrate how quickly political decisions can disrupt commercial ties that took years to establish. Rebuilding those ties may prove considerably harder than imposing the tariffs that damaged them.

This Options Discord Chat is The Real Deal

While the internet is scoured with trading chat rooms, many of which even charge upwards of thousands of dollars to join, this smaller options trading discord chatroom is the real deal and actually providing valuable trade setups, education, and community without the noise and spam of the larger more expensive rooms. With a incredibly low-cost monthly fee, Options Trading Club (click here to see their reviews) requires an application to join ensuring that every member is dedicated and serious about taking their trading to the next level. If you are looking for a change in your trading strategies, then click here to apply for a membership.