Liberals Lead Conservatives by 13 Points, but New Poll Reveals a 20-Point Gender Gap

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Canada’s federal political landscape continues to favour Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals, but new polling reveals a striking difference in how men and women view the country’s major political parties.

A national survey released November 9, 2026, by Liaison Strategies places the Liberals 13 percentage points ahead of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. Beneath that comfortable national advantage, however, lies a considerably more complicated picture: the Liberal lead among women is 20 points larger than its lead among men.

The findings also highlight a political contradiction. Carney enjoys strong personal approval among both genders, yet that popularity translates into dramatically different levels of support for his party. With Conservatives attempting to close the national gap and other opposition parties competing for voters, the numbers offer important insights into Canada’s evolving political environment.

The Liberals Maintain a Comfortable National Lead

The latest Liaison Strategies federal tracker places the Liberal Party at 44% support among decided and leaning voters, compared with 31% for the Conservatives and 14% for the New Democratic Party. The resulting 13-point advantage gives Carney’s Liberals a substantial national cushion, even as the Conservatives work to improve their position. Smaller parties continue to attract meaningful portions of the electorate, with the Bloc Québécois at 5% nationally, the Greens at 3%, and the People’s Party and other parties each recording 2%.

However, the Liberal advantage has narrowed slightly from the previous week’s 15-point lead, when the party registered 45% support against 30% for the Conservatives. The movement represents a modest improvement for Poilievre’s party rather than evidence of a dramatic shift in voter sentiment. Liberal support has remained between 44% and 45% across five consecutive Liaison releases, suggesting that the governing party’s national standing has been relatively stable despite weekly fluctuations. For the Conservatives, the challenge is turning incremental gains into a sustained recovery capable of making the federal contest more competitive.

A 20-Point Gender Divide Reveals Two Different Political Contests

The most striking finding concerns the enormous difference between male and female voting intentions. Among men, the Liberals hold a narrow three-point advantage, with 40% supporting Carney’s party compared with 37% backing the Conservatives. Among women, however, Liberal support rises to 49%, while Conservative support falls to 26%. That produces a 23-point Liberal advantage among female respondents, creating a 20-percentage-point difference between the party’s leads among men and women.

Importantly, the 20-point figure measures the difference between the two partisan leads, not a 20-point difference in Liberal support alone. Female respondents are nine percentage points more likely than male respondents to support the Liberals, while male respondents are 11 points more likely than female respondents to support the Conservatives. These contrasting preferences help explain why the national picture looks considerably stronger for the Liberals than the much tighter competition among men would suggest. The results identify a significant political divide, although the survey does not establish precisely which issues or personal experiences are driving those differences.

Carney’s Personal Approval Remains Strong Among Men and Women

One of the more revealing aspects of the new findings is that Carney’s personal approval remains strong despite the substantial gender divide in Liberal voting intentions. Nationally, Liaison reports that 65% of Canadians approve of the prime minister’s performance, while 28% disapprove and 7% remain unsure. Approval has increased by one percentage point since the previous release, even as the Liberal Party’s national lead has narrowed. The figures suggest that Carney continues to benefit from a broadly positive public reputation.

The gender breakdown adds another layer to the political picture. Liaison reports that 68% of male respondents approve of Carney’s performance, compared with 66% of female respondents. That relatively small difference contrasts sharply with the 20-point disparity between the Liberal Party’s leads among the two groups. It illustrates why satisfaction with a prime minister should not automatically be interpreted as support for that leader’s party. Someone might approve of Carney’s leadership while preferring a Conservative, NDP or other candidate locally. Without individual-level responses linking approval and voting intentions, however, the findings cannot establish how frequently that happens or what motivates those choices.

Poilievre Faces a More Difficult Personal Popularity Challenge

While the Conservatives have managed to narrow the national voting gap slightly, their leader’s personal ratings have continued moving in the opposite direction. The latest Liaison findings show that 32% of respondents hold a favourable opinion of Pierre Poilievre, compared with 54% who view him unfavourably. Another 10% remain unsure, while 4% say they are unfamiliar with him. Those results give the Conservative leader a 22-point negative net favourability rating, presenting a potential obstacle as his party tries to attract voters beyond its existing supporters.

The recent trajectory is particularly noteworthy. Poilievre’s favourable rating has fallen across three consecutive releases, moving from 35% to 33% and then 32%. Over the same period, his unfavourable rating has climbed from 52% to 53% and finally 54%. Although these are relatively small movements, they indicate that the Conservatives’ modest improvement in voting intentions has not been accompanied by stronger personal ratings for their leader. For Conservative strategists, the distinction matters. A competitive election campaign requires more than maintaining support among established voters; it also demands persuading undecided or less committed Canadians that the party represents a credible alternative.

Ontario Remains a Major Obstacle for Conservative Recovery

Ontario continues to provide the Liberals with an important political advantage. According to Liaison’s latest regional findings, the governing party holds 47% support in Canada’s most populous province, compared with 34% for the Conservatives. That 13-point provincial lead mirrors the national margin and places the Conservatives in a challenging position in a region essential to forming government. Ontario accounts for 122 of the House of Commons’ 343 electoral districts, making it the largest single source of federal parliamentary seats.

The province’s electoral importance extends beyond its population. Under Canada’s first-past-the-post system, individual riding victories determine parliamentary representation, meaning the geographic distribution of support can be just as important as the overall popular vote. A party could improve its provincial vote share while gaining relatively few seats if its additional supporters were concentrated in districts it already held. Conversely, modest changes in competitive ridings could have a substantial effect on parliamentary representation. The latest Ontario figures therefore provide a useful indication of the Conservatives’ challenges, but they cannot determine how many seats either party would win in a future election.

Quebec Gives the Liberals Another Significant Advantage

The Liberals also maintain a strong position in Quebec, where Liaison reports support of 46%. The Bloc Québécois follows at 24%, while the Conservatives trail with 18%. The results illustrate a political environment in which the Conservatives face competition not only from the governing Liberals but also from a well-established regional party. Quebec’s 78 federal electoral districts give the province substantial influence over the composition of the House of Commons, particularly when several parties are competing for the same constituencies.

For Poilievre’s Conservatives, the Quebec numbers present a different challenge from Ontario. Rather than competing primarily against a Liberal lead, the party must also contend with the Bloc’s considerable share of voter support. The Bloc’s 24% standing within Quebec is especially important because its national share, reported at 5%, can obscure its regional strength. Meanwhile, the Liberals’ 46% support gives them a commanding advantage in the province-wide standings. Still, Quebec’s political geography is diverse, and a provincial average cannot show which party is strongest in every individual riding. The actual electoral implications would depend on where support is concentrated and how it changes before voters cast their ballots.

Alberta Offers Conservatives a More Encouraging Picture

Alberta presents a noticeably different political landscape from Ontario and Quebec. Liaison’s latest figures put the Conservatives ahead with 47% support, compared with 40% for the Liberals. The seven-point Conservative advantage is unchanged from the previous week’s survey, suggesting a relatively stable contest in the province over that short period. Alberta holds 37 federal electoral districts, giving the Conservatives an important potential source of parliamentary representation even as they trail nationally. Nevertheless, the relatively narrow provincial margin also indicates that Liberal support remains substantial.

Perhaps the most interesting finding concerns the personal popularity of both party leaders. Liaison reports that 60% of Alberta respondents approve of Carney’s performance, while 60% hold a favourable opinion of Poilievre. Although these figures measure different attitudes and should not be treated as identical indicators, they demonstrate that positive views of one leader can coexist with support for the other party. For Conservatives, Alberta remains an area of electoral strength, but the Liberal result complicates any assumption that federal politics in the province is entirely one-sided. Regional support can also change considerably between elections, particularly when national economic conditions or political priorities shift.

The NDP Shows Greater Strength in British Columbia and Among Younger Voters

The New Democratic Party continues to face a difficult national environment, with Liaison recording 14% support for the fourth consecutive release. However, its position in British Columbia is considerably stronger. In that province, the Liberals lead with 37%, followed by the Conservatives at 30% and the NDP at 26%. The relatively narrow distances separating all three parties create a more competitive regional picture than the national totals suggest. British Columbia’s 43 federal ridings also make the province an important battleground for parties seeking additional representation.

NDP leader Avi Lewis appears to have stronger personal appeal than his party’s national voting intentions might suggest. Liaison reports a 46% favourable rating for Lewis in British Columbia, compared with 34% nationally. Among Canadians aged 18 to 34, his favourable rating reaches 45%, although only 21% of respondents in that age group indicate they would vote NDP. This contrast suggests that positive impressions of Lewis have not yet translated into equivalent support for his party. For the NDP, converting that goodwill into actual votes could be important to rebuilding its competitiveness, particularly in regions where several parties are competing for support.

Another Major Pollster Finds a Much Smaller Gender Gap

Although the Liaison findings reveal a substantial gender divide, another recent national survey presents a different interpretation of the political landscape. An Abacus Data poll published November 8 places the Liberals at 45% support, compared with 34% for the Conservatives, producing a similar national lead of 11 points. Its gender breakdown, however, looks considerably different. Among men, the Liberals lead 46% to 34%, while among women, they lead 44% to 33%. That represents a difference of just one percentage point between the Liberal leads among the two genders, compared with the 20-point difference reported by Liaison.

The contrasting findings demonstrate why demographic conclusions should be examined across multiple surveys. Abacus interviewed 1,926 Canadians online between October 30 and November 4, while Liaison used automated telephone interviews over a different fieldwork period. Abacus also found that 57% approved of the federal government’s overall performance, but only 29% approved of its handling of inflation and the cost of living. Those figures highlight a potential vulnerability beneath the Liberals’ national advantage. However, the Abacus fieldwork was completed before the November 5 federal budget, meaning its results cannot measure public reaction to that announcement.

Polling Methodology Matters as Parties Prepare for Their Next Political Test

Understanding how the Liaison survey was conducted is essential to interpreting its findings accurately. The research firm surveyed 1,000 Canadians between October 25 and November 7 using interactive voice response technology and random-digit dialling across landline and cellular networks. Results were weighted by age, gender and region using targets based on the 2021 Census. Liaison reports a national margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. However, the margin is larger for demographic and regional subgroups, meaning individual gender estimates carry greater uncertainty than the national results.

Another important consideration is that Liaison’s weekly tracker combines two weeks of interviews, so consecutive releases share part of their samples. This makes small week-to-week movements less conclusive than they might initially appear. Online panel surveys, such as the Abacus study, also have different sampling considerations, and conventional probability-based margins of error cannot be applied to them in the same way. Ultimately, polls measure reported opinions during specific periods rather than guarantee future election outcomes. The Liberals currently enjoy a clear national advantage, but the differing gender results emphasize the need for continued research. Whether Conservatives can strengthen their appeal among women, while the Liberals maintain support among men and other demographic groups, remains an important question for the country’s political future.

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