Carney Holds 11-Point Poll Lead as Approval of Ottawa’s Cost-of-Living Record Falls to Just 29%

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An 11-point lead in national polling would normally suggest comfortable political territory. For Prime Minister Mark Carney, however, the latest numbers reveal a growing contradiction between political popularity and public frustration over everyday expenses.

While the Liberals maintain a substantial advantage over the Conservatives, only 29% of Canadians approve of Ottawa’s handling of the cost of living and inflation. The findings expose a widening gap between confidence in the government’s overall leadership and dissatisfaction with its ability to make life more affordable.

With grocery bills, housing expenses, and economic uncertainty continuing to shape household decisions, affordability has become a critical test of the government’s credibility. Carney remains politically strong, but the question is whether that support can survive if Canadians continue to feel financially squeezed.

The Liberal Lead Has Narrowed, Not Disappeared

Abacus Data’s national tracking, published November 8, places the Liberals at 45% among decided voters, compared with 34% for the Conservatives. The NDP stands at 9% and the Bloc Québécois at 8%, with smaller shares for the Greens and People’s Party. An 11-point lead is substantial when several parties are competing for attention. It suggests the Liberals retain room to absorb criticism without losing their advantage in a hypothetical election.

Yet the direction of movement matters. In Abacus Data’s October 21 reading, the Liberals were at 48% and the Conservatives at 32%, a 16-point gap. The latest figures therefore show a three-point Liberal decline and a two-point Conservative gain. Neither movement alone proves a lasting change in public opinion, and no election result can be read directly from a single poll. The sharper finding is that a government still comfortably ahead is no longer moving uniformly in its preferred direction.

Approval of Ottawa’s Affordability Record Falls to 29%

The most alarming number for Ottawa is not the narrowing party lead but the decline in approval of its handling of inflation and living costs. Just 29% of respondents give the government a positive assessment on that issue, while 47% disapprove. Approval was 38% in September and 31% in October. That nine-point slide in roughly two months makes affordability the weakest-rated policy area measured by Abacus Data.

The difference matters because household budgets are experienced daily. Slower grocery inflation does not erase the price increases families already absorbed, and a cheaper week of fuel cannot reverse months of higher commuting costs. Such examples illustrate pressures; they do not prove why respondents answered as they did. What the poll establishes is growing dissatisfaction with the government’s performance. For Carney, the political danger is that Ottawa’s weakest-rated policy area is also the one Canadians most frequently place near the top of their priorities.

Why the Government Still Receives Strong Overall Approval

Despite the affordability verdict, 57% of Canadians approve of the government’s overall performance, compared with 27% who disapprove and 15% who are neutral. That is a different question from whether Ottawa has made groceries, rent or transportation more affordable. Canadians can believe the government is responding capably to international challenges while still judging its domestic economic record harshly. The two findings reflect distinct evaluations, not inconsistent answers from the public.

Abacus Data’s issue ratings offer a clue. Approval reaches 54% for managing relations with the United States and another 54% for national defence and security, while the score for jobs and economic growth is 41%. Its statistical analysis found assessments of Canada–U.S. relations were more closely associated with overall government approval than assessments of affordability, after accounting for other issues. That is an association, not proof of what causes a vote. For now, broader confidence appears to give Carney room to withstand economic frustration.

Cost of Living Dominates Canadians’ Political Priorities

The issue agenda is clear. When Abacus Data asked Canadians to select their three biggest national concerns, 63% chose the rising cost of living. The economy and Donald Trump’s administration each drew 38%, while housing affordability reached 32% and healthcare 31%. These figures are not shares of a single-choice vote; respondents could identify three priorities. Affordability stood ahead of every other issue by a wide margin.

The concern also crosses regional boundaries. Living costs ranked first in every part of the country, selected by 72% of respondents in Alberta and Atlantic Canada, compared with 56% in Quebec. A family paying for winter heating in the Maritimes and a commuter watching fuel costs in Alberta face different bills, yet both can feel financial pressure. The numbers do not establish identical circumstances, but they show why a national government cannot treat affordability as a problem confined to one province or voter group.

Inflation Numbers Explain Why Household Frustration Persists

Official figures help explain why affordability remains politically sensitive to Canadians. Statistics Canada reported that consumer prices were 3.1% higher in September 2026 than a year earlier. Gasoline prices rose 27.8%, driving headline inflation higher. Prices for food purchased from stores rose a slower 1.7% over the year, but bills did not return to earlier levels. Statistics Canada calculated that grocery prices were 33.0% higher than in September 2020.

That distinction matters. Inflation describes how quickly costs are rising; it does not automatically reverse increases already built into the checkout total. Families may notice a slower rate of change while still spending considerably more than they once did. Households experience the national average differently. Someone who drives long distances will feel fuel increases more sharply than a person who relies on transit. These differences help explain why modest improvements in price categories may not translate into a stronger public assessment

A Weaker Job Market Adds Another Layer of Anxiety

Unease extends beyond prices printed on receipts. Statistics Canada reported that the unemployment rate rose to 6.7% in October, up 0.2 percentage points from September. Employment edged down by 4,700 positions after larger declines in August and September. Among people aged 15 to 24, unemployment climbed to 13.7%, a difficult backdrop for those seeking a first job or building savings.

The same release showed average hourly wages for Canadian employees rising 2.2% over the year, while the employment rate slipped to 60.5%. These figures do not mean every worker is struggling or that the polling respondents were reacting to this specific release. In fact, the labour-market figures were published after interviews for the Abacus poll ended. They nevertheless help describe the economic setting in which Ottawa must make its case. When finding work feels uncertain, reassurance about long-term growth may carry less weight than the security of the next paycheque.

Housing Remains a Major Weakness for Ottawa

Housing is a weak point on Ottawa’s economic report card. Only 31% of Canadians approve of the government’s handling of housing affordability and supply, according to Abacus Data. Separately, 32% place housing affordability among the country’s three most important challenges. These figures reach beyond first-time buyers. Renters, young adults living with family, and households renewing mortgages can all judge housing policy through different pressures, even when debate focuses on home prices.

Statistics Canada’s September inflation figures show shelter costs rising 1.8% year over year, with rents up 2.8%. Neither measure captures the challenge of saving for a down payment or finding a suitable place near work. A slower annual increase in shelter costs also does not guarantee that payments feel affordable. Housing therefore reinforces the problem revealed by the poll: voters can remain supportive of Carney’s leadership while doubting whether federal action is producing tangible changes in their monthly budgets.

Conservatives Have an Opening on Affordability

The Conservatives have an opening where Ottawa scores poorest. Among respondents who identified the cost of living as a top-three concern, 35% said the Conservatives were best equipped to handle it, compared with 30% choosing the Liberals. On housing affordability, the Conservatives also held a narrow advantage among those prioritizing the issue. Yet on the broader economy, the Liberals edged ahead, 41% to 40%, showing that voters distinguish between economic questions.

That five-point Conservative advantage on living costs is not the same as a five-point lead in an election. People weigh leadership, international relations and other policies alongside household finances before deciding which party to support. The opposition’s challenge is to turn dissatisfaction with one government performance rating into a convincing case for replacing the government itself. For Carney, the task is different: show that his administration can produce measurable relief before affordability frustrations begin to reshape those broader judgments.

Regional Support Keeps the Liberals Ahead

The Liberals’ national lead rests on advantages across several regions, not just one stronghold. In Ontario, Abacus Data puts them at 52% against 34% for the Conservatives. The Liberal edge is 45% to 35% in British Columbia and 52% to 31% in Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, the Liberals lead the Bloc Québécois 39% to 34%, with the Conservatives at 20%. These results give Carney several routes to maintaining electoral support.

The map is not uniformly Liberal. Conservatives lead 56% to 30% in Alberta and hold a narrower 42% to 39% advantage across Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The split matters because Canadian elections are decided riding by riding, not through the national popular vote. It also points to the challenge of responding to affordability concerns that cut across different housing markets and local economies. Regional subsamples are smaller than the national sample, so margins should not be treated as guaranteed election outcomes.

Younger Canadians Present a Different Political Challenge

The age breakdown shows a pressure point. Among Canadians aged 60 and older, the Liberals hold a commanding 56% to 29% advantage over the Conservatives. Among adults aged 18 to 44, however, the Conservatives lead 37% to 34%. Figures show both the 18-to-29 and 30-to-44 groups register the same Liberal and Conservative shares, while the NDP attracts 15% in each.

These patterns do not prove that affordability alone drives generational differences. But life stage can influence which expenses feel most urgent. A young renter trying to save for a home may approach government promises differently from a retiree concerned about preserving savings and accessing healthcare. The poll points to a political challenge: strong support among older Canadians can sustain a national advantage, yet winning over younger people may require convincing evidence that wages, jobs and housing opportunities are improving. Any age gap also deserves caution because subgroup samples are smaller.

The Federal Budget Creates the Next Test for Carney

Timing matters. Abacus interviewed 1,926 Canadian adults from October 30 to November 4, before the federal budget was tabled on November 5. The numbers therefore describe the mood entering budget week, not Canadians’ reaction to the new measures. Budget 2026 proposes a one-time supplement to the Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit in early 2027, worth up to $339 for a single person without children or $679 for a couple with two children.

Carney also enters that test with a political cushion. Abacus found 43% favoured re-electing the Liberals, while 35% believed it was time for change and a credible alternative existed. But proposed financial relief is different from money already reaching households. The government’s next challenge is to persuade Canadians that its plans will meaningfully reduce everyday pressure, while keeping confidence on the broader issues where it still performs better. The online-panel findings are a snapshot, not an election forecast.

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