U.S. Steel and Aluminum Companies Lobby Trump to Keep Tariffs on Canada as Carney Pushes for a Deal

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Washington and Ottawa may be talking again, but some of America’s most influential industrial players are trying to make sure renewed diplomacy does not come at their expense. As Prime Minister Mark Carney presses the Trump administration for relief from tariffs hitting Canadian steel, aluminum and other strategic industries, U.S. manufacturers are lobbying officials to preserve the protections already in place.

The pressure campaign adds another obstacle to a trade relationship that has become increasingly difficult to predict. President Donald Trump says a deal with Canada could come soon, while Canadian officials describe progress as limited. Behind those competing messages is a deeper fight over what North American manufacturing should look like: tightly integrated across the border, as it has been for decades, or increasingly divided by national industrial policies designed to pull production and investment home.

Washington’s Tariff Lobby Is Moving to Block Relief

American manufacturing interests are making their position clear as Canada-U.S. discussions regain momentum. Representatives supporting the existing tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum and automobiles met senior officials at the Commerce Department and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative during the past week, according to reporting on the negotiations. Their message was essentially that Washington should not dismantle policies that domestic producers believe are finally encouraging more investment inside the United States.

Century Aluminum President and CEO Jesse Gary has been particularly supportive of the current approach, arguing that the tariff programs are working and should remain in place. That matters because Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is playing a central role in the renewed negotiations with Canada. The lobbying effort is therefore aimed at officials with direct influence over whether sector-specific tariffs become bargaining chips. For Carney, reaching Trump is only one part of the challenge; Ottawa must also overcome an organized U.S. industrial constituency that sees Canadian tariff relief as a potential threat to its own expansion plans.

Steelmakers Say Section 232 Is Producing Results

The lobbying campaign did not begin with the latest round of Canadian negotiations. In September, five major American steel organizations urged Trump not to weaken the Section 232 steel tariffs while negotiating with foreign governments. The groups included the American Iron and Steel Institute, Steel Manufacturers Association, American Line Pipe Producers Association, Specialty Steel Industry of North America and American Institute of Steel Construction. Their argument is that predictable import barriers give companies confidence to invest in mills that require enormous amounts of capital and years of planning.

There is considerable economic weight behind that argument. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates American mills produced about 82 million metric tons of raw steel in 2025, with sales valued near US$149 billion. Employment averaged roughly 86,000 people at iron and steel mills and another 61,000 in steel-product manufacturing. Yet imports remain important: Canada accounted for about 23% of U.S. steel import supply over the 2021-to-2024 period. To American producers, that dependence represents an opportunity to capture more demand domestically if tariffs stay high.

Aluminum Producers See Tariffs as an Investment Signal

The aluminum debate has a similar theme, although the economics are even more complicated. Century Aluminum has directly credited Trump’s Section 232 policies with supporting an expansion of its Mount Holly smelter in South Carolina. The company said the project would increase total U.S. primary aluminum production by roughly 10% and expand the Mount Holly workforce to more than 600 employees. For a sector that has watched much of its primary smelting capacity disappear over several decades, projects like that carry political significance well beyond their individual output.

The broader U.S. aluminum industry directly employs more than 165,000 workers, according to an Aluminum Association economic study released this year, while generating more than US$115 billion in direct economic output. Industry advocates contend that tariffs create the price stability needed for additional American capacity. That helps explain why producers resist exemptions for major suppliers such as Canada. From their perspective, carving out the largest foreign sources could dilute the incentive that makes new smelting, rolling and recycling investments financially attractive in the first place.

America’s Dependence on Canadian Metal Complicates the Argument

Protecting domestic production is one objective; replacing Canadian supply quickly is another. The United States remains deeply reliant on imported aluminum, and Canada has long been its most important supplier. U.S. Geological Survey data show Canada accounted for 56% of American aluminum import supply during the 2021-to-2024 period. Canadian hydropower, particularly in Quebec, gives smelters access to large quantities of comparatively inexpensive electricity—an enormous advantage because primary aluminum production is exceptionally energy intensive.

Steel is less dependent on imports than aluminum, but Canada is still a crucial supplier. USGS data put Canadian steel at 23% of U.S. import sources over 2021 through 2024. Those flows are not simply finished foreign products competing with American factories. Canadian metals enter automotive, construction, machinery, packaging and other North American supply chains. That creates the central contradiction facing the Trump administration: tariffs can encourage domestic investment, but reducing imports faster than U.S. producers can replace them can also tighten supplies and raise costs for manufacturers that consume far more metal than they produce.

Carney Wants Relief Without Reviving the August Deal

Carney’s government has consistently identified steel, aluminum and automotive tariffs as major issues to be resolved with Washington. Canada came close to an agreement during negotiations in August, but Carney ultimately suspended the talks after concluding that Washington’s final demands were economically unacceptable. Ottawa had signalled willingness to remove some retaliatory measures if the United States substantially reduced tariffs on strategic Canadian exports, but it was unwilling to accept an agreement simply to meet an American deadline.

The tone has improved slightly since then, although expectations remain carefully managed. Carney said this week there had been a “slight intensification” of discussions and argued that whatever progress had occurred reflected the United States moving closer to Canada’s position rather than Ottawa retreating from its demands. A Canadian government official subsequently characterized the progress as limited. That gap between Trump’s optimistic public language and Ottawa’s caution is important: the governments are communicating again, but there is still no evidence of a finalized package that resolves the underlying dispute over metals.

Canada Is Already Redirecting Trade Away From the U.S.

Canada cannot replace the American market overnight, especially in metals. Natural Resources Canada says the United States accounted for 91% of the value of Canadian aluminum-product exports in 2024. Statistics Canada separately estimated that U.S. demand supported roughly 12,000 Canadian jobs in alumina and aluminum production and processing that year—about 77.6% of payroll employment in the sector. Those numbers explain why tariff relief remains such a high priority for Ottawa.

Still, the trade disruption is accelerating diversification that once looked far more theoretical. Statistics Canada found shipments of unwrought aluminum and aluminum alloys to destinations outside the United States rose from roughly C$670 million in 2024 to C$2 billion in 2025. Steel producers are also finding more demand at home. Reuters reported that Canadian-made steel’s share of domestic consumption increased from 41% in 2024 to 51% in 2025, helped by infrastructure, mining, energy and data-centre projects. Every new customer outside the United States modestly reduces Washington’s leverage in future negotiations.

Stelco’s Layoffs Show What the Trade Fight Looks Like on the Ground

The tariff dispute is no longer an abstract argument about trade law in communities such as Hamilton, Ontario. Stelco, owned by U.S.-based Cleveland-Cliffs, announced plans to idle finishing operations in Hamilton and affect as many as 500 workers across its Ontario operations. The company has blamed a combination of the trade conflict, reduced access to U.S. customers, weak demand and continued import competition inside Canada for making parts of its business uneconomic.

Stelco told Ottawa that Canadian exports of cold-rolled and coated steel to the United States had fallen 58% compared with pre-trade-war conditions. The layoffs produced an unusually sharp confrontation with the federal government. Industry Minister Mélanie Joly gave Cleveland-Cliffs 15 days to reverse planned job reductions or face possible sanctions connected to employment commitments made when the American company acquired Stelco in 2024. For affected families, whether diplomats call negotiations “intensified” or “limited” matters less than whether orders return quickly enough to restart production and recall workers.

Ottawa Is Spending Billions to Make Waiting Less Painful

Carney is negotiating with Washington while simultaneously preparing Canadian industry for the possibility that the old trade relationship will not return. On October 21, the federal and Ontario governments announced C$8.7 billion in investments and measures aimed at strategic industries and workers affected by U.S. tariffs. The centrepiece for steel is a five-year Joint Steel Action Fund combining C$3.55 billion from Ottawa with C$1.67 billion from Ontario.

The money is intended to help Canadian mills upgrade equipment, develop products needed by domestic industries and reach customers outside the United States. Governments are also using procurement policies to favour Canadian steel, strengthening enforcement against dumped imports and expanding financing for tariff-affected businesses. The strategy effectively gives Carney more room to resist an unfavorable American offer. Support programs cannot replace unrestricted access to the enormous U.S. market, but they can reduce the pressure to accept immediate concessions simply because Canadian companies need relief. That changes the negotiating calculation compared with a Canada entirely dependent on reopening the border.

U.S. Midterm Politics Are Pushing Trump Toward a Deal

American industrial producers are lobbying Trump to preserve tariffs, but another powerful group is pushing in the opposite direction: Republican candidates worried about November 3. The dispute has become particularly sensitive in northern border states where businesses buy Canadian materials, sell products into Canada or operate supply chains that treat the border more like an administrative checkpoint than a hard economic boundary.

Michigan Republican Mike Rogers has publicly called for an end to the tariff war with Canada, arguing that companies and consumers are paying the price. In Maine, Senator Susan Collins pressed the administration for relief affecting local businesses and farmers. Trump subsequently removed 50% tariffs from selected Canadian agricultural and forestry products, with the changes scheduled immediately before the midterms. He then travelled to Port Huron, Michigan, where he predicted the broader Canadian dispute would be settled soon. The result is an unusual political squeeze: domestic manufacturers want tariffs maintained, while candidates in trade-dependent states want enough relief to limit economic damage before voters cast ballots.

A Narrow Deal May Be Easier Than Ending the Trade War

The most realistic near-term outcome may be considerably smaller than a comprehensive reset. Reuters reported that the current U.S.-Canada discussions are focused particularly on Section 232 relief for steel and automobiles, with officials on both sides acknowledging that any agreement could be narrow. Aluminum nevertheless remains one of Ottawa’s core sectoral concerns, while American producers are actively arguing against weakening the existing protection.

That distinction matters because even a successful announcement could leave substantial tariffs, quotas or other managed-trade restrictions in place. Washington has shown in agreements with countries such as Japan that Trump is willing to reduce sectoral duties when they are paired with investment commitments or broader concessions. Canada, meanwhile, has insisted that an agreement must provide credible economic benefits rather than simply reduce the severity of American penalties. The next breakthrough, if it comes, may therefore be less about restoring the old era of tariff-free North American commerce and more about deciding which industries receive relief, which protections remain and what each side must give up in return.

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