Doug Ford Says Trump Is Feeling the Pain of Canadian Tariffs — but Carney Hasn’t Briefed Him Recently

35,000+ smart investors are already getting financial news, market signals, and macro shifts in the economy that could impact their money next with our FREE weekly newsletter. Get ahead of what the crowd finds out too late. Click Here to Subscribe for FREE.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford believes economic pressure from the Canada-U.S. tariff fight is beginning to register with President Donald Trump, just as Washington is signalling renewed interest in a deal. Speaking in Ottawa on October 26, Ford repeated his argument that tariffs on Canadian goods ultimately raise costs for Americans and said he thinks Trump is now “feeling it.”

Yet Ford also revealed an unusual gap in the Team Canada messaging. Asked whether Prime Minister Mark Carney had recently briefed him on negotiations, Ford replied, “not lately.” The comment came even as behind-the-scenes discussions were intensifying. Ford’s argument is broader than Canadian retaliation alone: U.S. tariffs are imposing costs within America, while Ottawa’s counter-tariffs are separately putting pressure on American exporters.

Ford Thinks Washington Is Starting to Feel the Pressure

Ford’s message was straightforward: the trade war is no longer an abstract argument about tariff percentages or customs rules. He believes it is becoming a pocketbook issue in the United States. Before meeting with First Nations leaders and other premiers in Ottawa, Ford said he has repeatedly told American audiences that “a tariff on Canada is nothing more than a tax on the American people.” He added that he believes Trump is beginning to feel those consequences and urged both governments to return to negotiations.

That argument has become one of Ford’s most consistent themes during the dispute. In an August appearance on ABC’s This Week, he similarly warned that escalating auto tariffs would be damaging to both economies. Ford’s tone has often been more combative than Carney’s, but on October 26 he left the final negotiating decision to the prime minister. Ford said it was Carney’s call whether to accept a deal and that Ontario would be there to support him. That distinction matters: Ford wants pressure maintained, but he is not claiming the province should negotiate independently of Ottawa.

There Is Evidence Behind Ford’s “Tax on Americans” Argument

Tariffs are collected at the border from importers, and economic research shows that at least part of those costs can move through supply chains to businesses and consumers. Federal Reserve researchers studying U.S. tariffs imposed in 2025 estimated retail price pass-through of roughly 15% to 20%, while finding that lower-income households faced a disproportionately large welfare burden. Separate 2026 research found that tariffs can also raise the prices of domestically produced goods when manufacturers face more expensive imported inputs or less competition from imports.

Recent inflation numbers make affordability politically sensitive, although they cannot be attributed to Canadian trade measures alone. U.S. consumer prices rose 0.6% in September and were 3.7% higher than a year earlier. Gasoline accounted for more than half of September’s monthly increase, meaning it would be misleading to blame the headline inflation number on tariffs. New-vehicle prices rose only 0.2% during the month and 0.6% over the year. The economic case for Ford’s argument is therefore narrower but still significant: tariffs create additional costs in an environment where Americans are already highly sensitive to prices.

Canada’s Counter-Tariffs Create a Different Kind of Pain

Ottawa’s retaliatory measures operate in the opposite direction. After Washington imposed another round of 50% duties on C$27.6 billion of Canadian goods in August, Canada announced that it would match the measures dollar-for-dollar and rate-for-rate. Beginning September 8, counter-tariffs of 15%, 25% and 50% were imposed on C$27.6 billion worth of American imports. Products affected include steel and aluminum, dairy goods, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, plastics and electronics.

Some U.S. steel and aluminum products that had already faced 25% Canadian duties were increased to 50%, while appliances and certain dairy products were hit with 25% rates. Canada has also maintained separate 25% counter-tariffs on certain U.S.-made automobiles dating back to April 2025. Those duties are paid in Canada, not the United States, but American companies can still suffer when the higher landed price makes their goods less competitive. That means the two sides experience tariff pain differently: American importers can pay more for Canadian products, while U.S. exporters risk losing sales in one of their largest foreign markets.

Ford Hasn’t Been Briefed Recently — but Ottawa and Ontario Are Still Working Together

The most striking part of Ford’s October 26 comments may have been what he said about Carney. Asked whether the prime minister had updated him on the state of negotiations, Ford answered, “not lately.” He was also unsure whether an update would occur while premiers were gathered in Ottawa. That suggests Ford was outside the most recent negotiating loop at a moment when contacts between federal officials and Washington were apparently becoming more frequent.

It does not, however, point to a broader breakdown between Queen’s Park and Ottawa. Only five days earlier, Ford and Carney stood together to announce an C$8.7-billion Canada-Ontario industrial action plan. The package includes C$5.22 billion in federal and provincial commitments for a Joint Steel Action Fund, C$2.5 billion for automotive capital investments and up to C$1 billion in federal support matching Ontario’s initial investment in Ring of Fire infrastructure. Ford’s “not lately” response therefore looks more like a communication gap over the latest negotiating details than a rupture in the federal-provincial partnership.

Steel and Autos Are Emerging as the Main Path to a Deal

The strongest indication of movement came later on October 26. Reuters reported, citing two U.S. and four Canadian sources, that Washington and Ottawa were working on a possible agreement focused on easing tariffs affecting Canadian steel and automobiles. Those are two of the industries most exposed to the dispute and two of the most important sectors for Ontario’s manufacturing economy.

U.S. Section 232 tariffs currently include duties of up to 50% on Canadian steel and 25% on automobiles. Trump has also threatened to raise Canadian auto and steel tariffs to 50% beginning January 1, 2027. The renewed discussions are being driven heavily by U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Canadian minister Dominic LeBlanc. Reuters reported that a limited agreement could potentially emerge before the November 3 U.S. midterm elections, although American officials continue to seek concessions from Canada. That leaves an important distinction between a narrow tariff settlement and a comprehensive reset of the wider trade relationship. Even if steel and auto relief comes quickly, other disputes could remain unresolved.

Ontario Has More at Stake Than Almost Any Other Part of Canada

Ford’s urgency is easier to understand when the structure of Ontario’s economy is considered. The province is home to Ford, General Motors, Honda, Stellantis and Toyota assembly operations and directly employs roughly 92,000 people in its automotive sector. Ontario produced more than 1.2 million vehicles in 2025, making it one of North America’s largest automotive manufacturing jurisdictions.

Dependence on American customers runs even deeper than those numbers suggest. Statistics Canada calculated that U.S. demand supported 76.4% of payroll jobs in Canadian automobile and light-duty vehicle manufacturing in 2024. About 67% of payroll jobs at iron and steel mills and ferro-alloy manufacturers were similarly tied to U.S. demand. Across manufacturing as a whole, 41% of Canadian payroll jobs were associated with U.S. demand. That interconnectedness makes tariffs especially difficult for Ontario because the border does not neatly separate two independent manufacturing systems. Components, metals and finished products move repeatedly between Canadian and American facilities, meaning tariffs can create costs at several stages before a vehicle reaches a dealership.

U.S. Midterm Politics Are Giving Trump Another Reason to Find an Exit

The timing of the renewed negotiations is impossible to separate from the November 3 U.S. midterm elections. Trump recently told a Michigan audience that the dispute would be settled “pretty soon.” At the same time, some Republicans in states closely tied to Canadian trade have become increasingly uncomfortable with the tariff fight. In Michigan, Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers has publicly argued that Canada is not an enemy and called for the tariff war to end.

Maine has produced another visible example of the pressure. Republican Sen. Susan Collins pushed the administration for relief on Canadian products important to businesses in her state. On October 23, the White House modified its Section 338 tariff list, removing products including certain plywood, paper, machinery and refrigeration equipment while adding other goods. Those changes take effect October 30. The White House said the adjustment was intended to better serve the public interest, while recent reporting has highlighted the political significance of tariff relief for Maine. The changes do not prove Trump has abandoned his tariff strategy, but they show Washington is willing to recalibrate it when domestic costs become politically important.

Both Countries Now Have a Strong Economic Incentive to Stop Escalating

Canada also has plenty of reasons to want a settlement. An October assessment from the Parliamentary Budget Officer estimated that recent trade actions had increased the effective U.S. tariff rate on Canadian imports from 5.3% to 7.7%, while Canada’s equivalent rate on American imports rose from 1.6% to 3%. If the current measures were made permanent, the PBO estimated that Canada’s real GDP could eventually be 1.4% lower than under a pre-tariff baseline, with employment reduced by as many as 185,000 jobs at the peak of the adjustment.

Those estimates help explain why neither Ford nor Carney is treating retaliation as an end in itself. Ford wants enough pressure on Washington to produce better terms. Carney, meanwhile, said October 26 that discussions had undergone a “slight” intensification but emphasized that Canada had not moved from its negotiating position. In his telling, whatever progress exists is happening because the United States is moving closer to Canada. A narrow steel-and-auto agreement could therefore become the first real test of Ford’s theory: that once the political and economic costs became visible enough in the United States, Washington would have more reason to compromise.

This Options Discord Chat is The Real Deal

While the internet is scoured with trading chat rooms, many of which even charge upwards of thousands of dollars to join, this smaller options trading discord chatroom is the real deal and actually providing valuable trade setups, education, and community without the noise and spam of the larger more expensive rooms. With a incredibly low-cost monthly fee, Options Trading Club (click here to see their reviews) requires an application to join ensuring that every member is dedicated and serious about taking their trading to the next level. If you are looking for a change in your trading strategies, then click here to apply for a membership.