Trump Says U.S. Will Keep Buying Canadian Potash After Threatening to Replace It With Cheaper Belarusian Supply

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President Donald Trump has confirmed that the United States will continue purchasing Canadian potash, just one day after announcing plans to secure cheaper supplies from Belarus. The reversal offers some reassurance to Canada’s fertilizer industry, although Trump’s continued interest in alternative suppliers raises questions about the future of the longstanding agricultural trade relationship. Speaking during a September 22 meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the United Nations, Trump emphasized the importance of securing lower fertilizer prices for American farmers. His comments came amid ongoing trade tensions between Washington and Ottawa, with Saskatchewan’s potash industry caught in the middle. While Canadian producers benefit from their proximity to the American market and established transportation networks, the proposed Belarusian deal introduces new economic and geopolitical considerations involving fertilizer prices, international sanctions and Russia’s war in Ukraine.

A Sudden Change in Trump’s Potash Plans

On September 21, Trump announced on Truth Social that Washington was working on what he described as a massive agreement to purchase potash from Belarus. He claimed the United States could obtain the fertilizer at substantially lower prices than it currently pays Canada, presenting the proposed arrangement as a way to help American farmers and ranchers. The announcement raised concerns about the future of Canada’s largest agricultural mineral export market, particularly in Saskatchewan, where the country’s entire potash production is concentrated.

By September 22, however, Trump’s message had changed. Speaking to reporters during his meeting with Zelenskyy in New York, he confirmed that the United States intended to maintain its Canadian purchases while continuing to explore cheaper Belarusian supplies. He did not announce a specific purchase agreement or explain how much fertilizer Belarus might eventually provide. The distinction is important: Trump has signalled an interest in diversifying American fertilizer imports, but his latest remarks stop short of announcing a wholesale replacement of Canadian supply.

Why American Farmers Depend So Heavily on Canadian Potash

Canada occupies an unusually important position in the American agricultural supply chain. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, Canada accounted for 79% of American potash imports between 2021 and 2024, while Russia supplied another 12%. The United States produces some of its own potash, principally in New Mexico and Utah, but its domestic operations cannot satisfy national demand. In 2025, the country relied on imports for an estimated 92% of its apparent consumption, demonstrating how dependent American agriculture remains on foreign suppliers.

Potash supplies potassium, one of the three primary nutrients essential for plant growth, alongside nitrogen and phosphorus. Farmers use potassium-based fertilizers to improve crop yields, strengthen disease resistance and support plants during periods of water stress. These benefits make reliable supplies particularly important for American corn, soybean and other crop producers. Canada’s geographical advantage is equally significant. Established transportation networks connect Saskatchewan’s mines with agricultural markets across the United States, helping farmers obtain fertilizer without relying on lengthy overseas shipping routes.

Saskatchewan Has Billions of Dollars at Stake

For Saskatchewan, the uncertainty surrounding American potash purchases carries substantial economic consequences. The province contains all of Canada’s active potash mines and is home to major producers such as Nutrien, Mosaic and K+S Potash Canada. According to the Saskatchewan government, potash sales reached approximately $9.3 billion in 2025, increasing by more than 18% from the previous year. The industry supports thousands of jobs, substantial provincial revenue and a network of local businesses providing equipment, transportation, maintenance and other services.

The United States is particularly important to these operations. Natural Resources Canada reports that approximately 53% of Canada’s potash exports went to the American market in 2024, while Brazil and China accounted for another 14% and 6%, respectively. Statistics Canada valued Canadian potash exports to the United States at approximately $4.2 billion that year. Although Saskatchewan has customers around the world, any significant reduction in American purchases could force producers to redirect shipments, potentially increasing transportation costs and affecting investment decisions. Trump’s latest comments preserve the prospect of continued trade, but they do not eliminate concerns about future American purchasing strategies.

Belarus Is a Major Producer, but Replacing Canada Would Be Difficult

Belarus has considerable potash resources and is an established participant in the global fertilizer market. In 2024, it exported approximately 11.1 million tonnes of potassium chloride, accounting for nearly 19% of worldwide exports. That made Belarus the world’s third-largest potash exporter, behind Canada and Russia. However, producing large quantities of fertilizer does not necessarily mean having enough available to replace an existing supplier. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko acknowledged this limitation on September 21, saying that the country’s 2026 production was already committed under existing contracts.

Transportation presents another substantial challenge. Belarus is landlocked and has historically relied on Lithuania’s Baltic Sea ports to export fertilizer. Those routes have been disrupted by European sanctions and restrictions imposed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Exporters consequently face more complicated routes through Russian ports, potentially adding rail transportation expenses, handling costs and longer shipping times. For American buyers accustomed to receiving Canadian fertilizer through established North American distribution networks, a lower advertised Belarusian price would not automatically translate into cheaper fertilizer delivered to farms.

The Belarus Proposal Raises Questions About Sanctions and Ukraine

The proposed agreement also intersects with Washington’s changing relationship with Belarus, which has maintained close ties with Russia throughout its war against Ukraine. In December 2025, the United States authorized certain transactions involving major Belarusian potash producers. Washington went further in March 2026, removing Belaruskali and the Belarusian Potash Company from its sanctions list. These changes created new opportunities for commercial transactions after years of restrictions and diplomatic disagreements involving the Belarusian government.

The European Union, however, has maintained a different approach. Its restrictions on Belarusian potash imports remain in place, and broader sanctions connected to political repression and Belarus’s support for Russia have been extended until February 2027. Lithuania has resisted American efforts to reopen its territory to Belarusian fertilizer exports. European officials argue that maintaining economic pressure is necessary because the Belarusian government’s conduct has not sufficiently changed. The disagreement creates an unusual situation in which Washington is exploring commercial opportunities with Belarus while European allies continue restricting an important source of revenue for the country.

Would Cheaper Belarusian Potash Actually Help American Farmers?

Trump’s emphasis on fertilizer affordability addresses a genuine financial concern for American agriculture. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s September 2026 forecast projects that spending on fertilizer, lime and soil conditioners will increase by approximately 15.3% this year compared with 2025. Higher input costs can reduce farm profitability, particularly when producers cannot secure sufficiently high prices for their crops. Against that backdrop, the prospect of additional fertilizer competition is commercially significant, especially for farms purchasing substantial quantities before spring planting.

However, industry analysts have questioned whether Belarusian imports would produce meaningful savings. Josh Linville, a fertilizer analyst with StoneX, told Reuters that American farmers already have ample access to potash and that nitrogen and phosphate supplies present more pressing concerns. Any Belarusian agreement would also need to account for transportation expenses, port access, delivery schedules and existing supply contracts. Trump has claimed that Belarus can offer substantially lower prices, but publicly reported information has not established a final delivered price or demonstrated how much American farmers would actually save.

Carney Emphasizes Reliability as Moe Challenges the Belarus Proposal

Canadian political leaders responded to Trump’s announcement by emphasizing different aspects of the proposed trade shift. Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe strongly criticized the idea on September 21, arguing that purchasing Belarusian potash would help support a government aligned with Russia. He also raised questions about the economics of transporting fertilizer through Russian territory instead of purchasing it from a neighbouring country. His objections reflected both the province’s economic interests and concerns about the consequences of increasing trade with Belarus.

Prime Minister Mark Carney offered a more commercially focused response after Trump confirmed that American purchases would continue. Speaking at a separate news conference on September 22, Carney described Canadian potash as reliable and cost-effective. He said the two countries have an opportunity to expand their fertilizer industries together, benefiting farmers on both sides of the border. That message highlights Ottawa’s interest in preserving agricultural cooperation even as disagreements over other aspects of Canada-U.S. trade continue. For Saskatchewan producers, the immediate question is whether Trump’s interest in Belarus will eventually translate into significant changes in purchasing volumes or prices.

What Happens Next for Canada-U.S. Potash Trade?

The uncertainty comes at a sensitive time for Canada-U.S. economic relations. Bilateral trade negotiations broke down in August after Ottawa rejected last-minute American demands that the Canadian government considered unacceptable. Washington has disputed Canada’s characterization of the negotiations. Against that backdrop, Trump’s Belarus proposal introduces another potential source of disagreement involving a commodity that both countries have traded extensively for decades. Canada’s position in the global fertilizer market provides some flexibility, with Brazil, China and other agricultural economies already purchasing substantial quantities of Saskatchewan potash. Nevertheless, those markets cannot automatically replace American demand without adjustments to transportation, distribution and commercial arrangements.

For now, several important questions remain unanswered. Trump has confirmed that Canadian purchases will continue, but Washington has not publicly established the volume, delivery schedule or final price of a proposed Belarusian agreement. Belarus has also acknowledged that its existing commitments limit the fertilizer it can provide this year. The developments leave Canadian producers navigating two realities: the United States remains an established and substantial customer, while the possibility of additional foreign competition creates uncertainty. The next meaningful developments will be any confirmed Belarusian supply contracts, changes in American purchasing patterns and the outcome of broader Canada-U.S. trade discussions.

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