41% of Canadians Now Describe the United States as an ‘Enemy Country’ as Trade Relationship Fractures

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For generations, Canadians have been accustomed to thinking of the United States as their closest ally, largest trading partner and most familiar neighbour. That assumption is being tested in ways that would have seemed extraordinary only a few years ago.

New Léger polling finds that 41% of Canadians now describe the United States as an “enemy country,” while only 22% call it an ally and another 22% view it as neutral. The finding arrives amid a rapidly escalating trade confrontation involving 50% U.S. tariffs on billions of dollars in Canadian products, Canadian counter-tariffs and renewed uncertainty over the future of continental trade rules. The numbers do not mean Canadians have collectively turned against Americans. They do, however, reveal how profoundly political and economic tensions are changing a relationship once treated as almost permanent.

The Shift in Canadian Opinion Has Been Remarkably Fast

The most striking part of the Léger finding may not be the 41% figure on its own, but how quickly attitudes have moved. In polling conducted from May 30 to June 1, 2025, 26% of Canadians described the United States as an enemy, while 27% considered it an ally and 30% called it neutral. By late August 2026, the enemy figure had climbed 15 percentage points to 41%, while the share describing the U.S. as an ally had fallen to 22%.

That is a dramatic change for two countries whose economies, families and communities have been intertwined for decades. The latest Léger research was conducted online from August 28 to 31 among 1,552 Canadian adults, with results weighted for demographic factors including age, gender, region, education and language. Because it used an online panel rather than a conventional probability sample, a traditional margin of error does not technically apply. Léger notes that a probability sample of the same size would carry a margin of error of about 2.48 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Much of the Anger Appears Tied to the Current U.S. Leadership

The word “enemy” is exceptionally strong, but the poll contains an important qualification. Nearly two-thirds of respondents, 64%, said their impression of the United States would change if Donald Trump were no longer president. Only 21% said it would not. That suggests many Canadians are distinguishing between the United States as a society and the policies of its current administration, even while their overall view of the country has deteriorated.

The distinction has appeared in earlier polling as well. In spring 2025, Léger found that many Canadians who were frustrated with the United States said their frustration was directed primarily at Trump rather than Americans generally. The latest poll also found 85% opposed the idea of Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state, while 9% supported it. Canadian pride remained widespread at 83%, and the share saying they were “very proud” to be Canadian reached 56%, 11 points higher than in June 2025. Among people who said their Canadian pride had recently increased, 72% connected that increase to statements Trump had made about Canada.

Tariffs Have Turned Diplomatic Tension Into Household Economics

The change in public opinion has unfolded alongside a trade dispute that increasingly reaches beyond negotiating rooms and into household budgets. The Canadian government says the United States imposed 50% tariffs on $27.6 billion worth of Canadian goods effective August 22, 2026. Washington has justified measures affecting products including dairy, alcoholic beverages and motor vehicles under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, arguing that Canadian policies disadvantage U.S. commerce.

Ottawa responded with counter-tariffs beginning September 8. Canadian duties of 15%, 25% and 50% were applied to a matching $27.6 billion worth of U.S. imports, including products in steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper and electronics. Canadians appear aware that retaliation carries costs. Léger found 78% expected the tariffs to increase prices for Canadian consumers, while 63% expected a major or moderate effect on their own finances. Yet 74% supported the federal government’s tariff response, and 66% said they would still support it even if some consumer prices increased. Economic pain and political resolve are, for now, existing side by side.

Canada Cannot Simply Walk Away From the U.S. Economy

The political relationship may be deteriorating, but the economic connection remains extraordinarily difficult to unwind. Canada and the United States exchanged nearly $3.5 billion in goods and services every day in 2025. Statistics Canada reported that 71.7% of Canadian merchandise exports still went to the United States that year, even after the U.S. share fell from 75.9% in 2024. Almost 59% of Canadian merchandise imports came from the United States.

That level of integration makes a clean economic separation unrealistic in the short term. Canadian factories buy American components, U.S. manufacturers use Canadian metals and energy, and products such as vehicles can cross the border several times during production. Canada recorded an $81.6-billion merchandise trade surplus with the United States in 2025, although that was down from $101.3 billion the previous year. At the same time, Canadian trade with the rest of the world was growing: merchandise exports to non-U.S. markets increased 17.2% in 2025. The emerging strategy is therefore less about abandoning the American market than reducing the risk of depending so heavily on a single customer.

Cross-Border Travel Shows How Politics Can Become Personal

Trade data can feel abstract. Vacation plans do not. Canadian travel to the United States fell sharply after political and trade tensions intensified in 2025, creating one of the clearest examples of foreign policy reaching everyday decisions. Statistics Canada found that Canadian-resident return crossings from the United States totalled 39 million in 2024 and represented about three-quarters of all Canadian return crossings from abroad. By the end of 2025, the U.S. share had fallen to roughly two-thirds.

Travel began recovering in 2026, but it remained well below earlier levels. In July 2026, Canadian return trips from the United States rose 10.2% from the depressed level recorded a year earlier. Yet automobile trips were still 28.9% below July 2024 and air trips were 26.8% lower. Earlier Léger polling found that 37% of Canadians who had been planning a U.S. trip said they cancelled it. For border communities, hotels and retailers, those decisions have consequences. For Canadian households, choosing a vacation destination has become one more place where the state of the bilateral relationship can influence ordinary behaviour.

Older Canadians and Quebecers Are Especially Negative

The national 41% figure hides substantial differences across age groups and regions. Léger found that 51% of Canadians aged 55 and older described the United States as an enemy, making older respondents considerably more negative than younger Canadians. Among people aged 18 to 34, opinion was more evenly divided: 31% called the United States an enemy and an identical 31% described it as neutral.

Quebec also stood out. Some 49% of Quebec respondents categorized the United States as an enemy, while 72% said their impression of the country would change if Trump were no longer president. Those differences matter because they show that there is no single Canadian attitude toward the United States. A retiree who remembers decades of relatively predictable cross-border relations may interpret recent threats to trade and sovereignty very differently from a younger Canadian whose experience of the bilateral relationship has been shaped by recurring tariff disputes. The poll captures a country becoming more skeptical of Washington, but that skepticism is distributed unevenly across generations and regions.

Canadians Are Showing a Willingness to Absorb Some Costs

Public support for retaliatory measures is especially notable because Canadians do not appear to believe those measures will be painless. Beyond the 78% who expect tariffs to push consumer prices higher, Léger found 87% anticipated at least some effect from the new tariffs on their personal financial situation. Even so, support for Ottawa’s response remained high, especially among Canadians aged 55 and older, 83% of whom backed the federal tariffs.

That willingness extends into some of the trade concessions that could theoretically lower prices. Half of Canadians opposed giving U.S. dairy and other food products greater access to the Canadian market in exchange for cheaper prices, according to Léger. The pattern suggests the dispute has moved beyond a simple calculation about which policy delivers the lowest grocery bill. For many respondents, trade policy has become connected to national autonomy and perceptions of fairness. That does not mean support will remain unchanged if tariffs persist and household costs rise. Public attitudes can shift quickly, as the “enemy country” numbers themselves demonstrate. But at present, Canadians appear willing to tolerate at least some economic cost in support of a firmer response.

CUSMA Is Still Alive, but the Relationship Around It Is Changing

Despite the increasingly hostile political environment, the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement has not disappeared. CUSMA entered into force in July 2020 and remains legally in force until 2036. Its 2026 joint review is not an automatic expiry date. Under the agreement, all three countries can agree to extend the pact for another 16 years. If they do not unanimously do so, reviews can take place annually during the remainder of its existing term, providing repeated opportunities for an extension.

The larger question is whether the assumptions supporting continental integration are changing faster than the agreement itself. Since CUSMA took effect, Canada-U.S. goods and services trade increased by more than 27%, or approximately $275 billion, by 2025. Yet Ottawa is simultaneously pursuing deeper economic relationships beyond North America. On September 17, Prime Minister Mark Carney used an address to the European Parliament to advocate closer Canada-EU cooperation in areas including critical minerals, energy, artificial intelligence, defence and digital trade. Trump has criticized the prospect of closer Canada-EU alignment and threatened additional tariffs against Europe under certain circumstances. The trade dispute is therefore increasingly influencing not only tariffs, but Canada’s broader economic strategy.

The 41% finding should not be interpreted as proof that four in ten Canadians literally expect military hostility from the United States. Poll questions capture perceptions, and words such as “enemy” can reflect anger, distrust or a belief that another government is acting against Canada’s interests. What the figure does demonstrate is how dramatically the emotional foundation of the bilateral relationship has weakened.

Canada and the United States remain economically intertwined, geographically inseparable and connected through millions of personal relationships. Those realities make cooperation difficult to replace. They do not guarantee political trust. A relationship built over generations can survive a tariff dispute, but rebuilding public confidence may prove harder than removing the tariffs themselves.

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