Liberal Favoured to Take Former Conservative Quebec Seat as Tories Sink Below 20% in Late Riding Poll

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With only a day remaining before voters in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord choose a new member of Parliament, a riding held by the Conservatives since 2018 is suddenly looking much harder for the party to defend. Liberal candidate Daniel Gobeil has moved narrowly ahead of Bloc Québécois rival Caroline Dubé in the latest local numbers, while Conservative candidate Régis Gaudreault has fallen into a distant third.

The shift is striking because the Conservatives won the seat in the 2025 federal election, when barely three percentage points separated the first- and third-place parties. Now, the contest appears to have reorganized around a Liberal-Bloc battle. For Prime Minister Mark Carney, a victory would mean taking a seat directly from the Conservatives. For Pierre Poilievre’s party, finishing below 20% would raise uncomfortable questions about its position in Quebec beyond one departing incumbent.

The Liberals Have the Lead, but This Is Still a Close Race

The latest Segma Recherche numbers put Liberal Daniel Gobeil at 40.3% of expressed voting intentions, narrowly ahead of Bloc Québécois candidate Caroline Dubé at 37.8%. Conservative Régis Gaudreault is considerably farther back at 16.8%, while the NDP, People’s Party and Greens divide most of the remaining support. The poll included 448 respondents and carries a stated margin of error of 4.6 percentage points. That matters: Gobeil’s 2.5-point advantage over Dubé remains comfortably inside that margin, making the Liberal lead meaningful but far from decisive.

The pattern is also not coming from a single isolated reading. An earlier Liaison Strategies riding poll conducted in mid-August produced remarkably similar results, with Gobeil at 39.9%, Dubé at 35.1% and Gaudreault at 15.4%. Two different late-campaign snapshots therefore show roughly the same structure: Liberals around 40%, the Bloc close behind and Conservatives in the mid-teens. A forecasting model from Vote-Scope consequently gives Gobeil the advantage, although 338Canada continues to classify the riding as a Liberal-Bloc toss-up. The safest conclusion is that the Liberals are favoured, not assured of victory.

A Conservative Seat Became Vulnerable the Moment Richard Martel Left

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord was not an overwhelming Conservative fortress in the 2025 election. Richard Martel won 34.1% of the vote, compared with 31.2% for the Bloc Québécois and 31.1% for the Liberals. Only 1,499 votes separated Martel from the Bloc candidate, while the Liberal candidate finished just 1,536 votes behind the winner. In other words, all three major competitors entered the last election within roughly three percentage points of one another. Martel survived, but his victory gave the Conservatives little room for erosion once he was removed from the ballot.

That happened in July when Prime Minister Mark Carney announced Martel’s appointment to the Senate. Martel resigned his House of Commons seat after representing Chicoutimi—Le Fjord since winning a 2018 by-election and securing re-election in 2019, 2021 and 2025. His departure removed a recognizable regional figure with deep roots in Saguenay, including a lengthy career in hockey before federal politics. The Conservatives are therefore trying to defend not simply a party-held constituency but a seat where an incumbent’s personal reputation may have mattered substantially. Monday’s result could reveal how much of the Conservative vote belonged to the party and how much belonged specifically to Martel.

The Conservative Drop Is the Most Dramatic Movement in the Race

The change from the 2025 result is difficult to overlook. Conservatives captured 34.1% under Martel last year. The Segma numbers place Gaudreault at 16.8%, almost exactly half that share. The earlier Liaison riding poll was even lower at 15.4%. By comparison, Liberal support has climbed from 31.1% in the general election to around 40% in both late polls, while the Bloc has increased from 31.2% to the mid-to-high 30s. Most of the political battlefield that was divided almost evenly three ways has therefore become concentrated between two parties.

Gaudreault has nevertheless run an active campaign centred on affordability, regional economic interests, taxation and greater Quebec autonomy in immigration. A retired lawyer and former law professor, he has also emphasized protecting workers and businesses in the Saguenay economy. Conservative officials including Quebec lieutenant Pierre Paul-Hus have campaigned alongside him. Yet the party has struggled to rebuild the coalition Martel assembled. The weakness is not entirely unique to this riding: an August Abacus Data poll placed federal Conservative support at 18% across Quebec, precisely the kind of provincial backdrop that makes recovering a mid-30s Conservative result in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord considerably harder.

Daniel Gobeil Brings a Profile That Fits the Region

The Liberal campaign made an unusual recruitment choice in Daniel Gobeil, selecting a dairy farmer and prominent agricultural representative rather than a conventional career politician. Gobeil holds a degree in agronomy, operates Ferme du Fjord in La Baie and served as president of Les Producteurs de lait du Québec before entering federal politics. The farm has family roots extending back to his grandfather. His former position placed him at the centre of debates surrounding dairy production, agricultural policy and Canada’s supply-management system long before his name appeared on a federal ballot.

That background became especially relevant as Canada-U.S. trade tensions pushed agricultural access and supply management back into political discussion. For a candidate attempting to persuade voters that joining the governing Liberal caucus could give Chicoutimi—Le Fjord greater influence in Ottawa, Gobeil can combine the government-access argument with a record rooted in a major regional industry. Segma’s analysis found him particularly strong among voters aged 65 and older and among residents of the MRC du Fjord-du-Saguenay. His advantage is therefore not merely partisan. The Liberals appear to have found a candidate capable of competing for voters who might previously have supported Martel or another regional figure.

The Bloc Remains Close Enough to Win

Calling the Liberals the favourites should not obscure the Bloc Québécois position. Caroline Dubé sits only 2.5 points behind Gobeil in the Segma results, an insignificant difference statistically given the poll’s margin of error. She also has geographical strengths of her own, with Segma reporting stronger support for her in Chicoutimi itself and among women. A strong election-day operation in those areas could erase a small Liberal polling advantage quickly, particularly in a by-election where turnout patterns can differ sharply from a federal general election.

Dubé’s campaign has emphasized seniors’ purchasing power, Quebec interests, French-language protection, culture and the effects of U.S. tariffs on local workers and businesses. Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet returned to the region during the closing stretch, accompanied by regional Bloc MPs, underscoring the party’s view that the seat is genuinely obtainable. The broader Quebec environment also offers encouragement. Abacus Data found the Bloc at 35% province-wide in its August federal polling, just two points behind the Liberals. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord may consequently become a test of two competing arguments: whether voters want representation inside the governing caucus or a Quebec-focused opposition voice applying pressure from outside it.

Quebec’s Wider Conservative Problem Is Showing Up Locally

The Conservative difficulties in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord line up closely with recent province-wide polling. Abacus Data measured the Liberals at 37% in Quebec, the Bloc at 35% and Conservatives at 18% during its August 7–12 field period. A separate Synopsis Recherche poll conducted entirely in Quebec put the Liberals at 43%, Bloc at 27% and Conservatives again at 18%. Although regional and provincial subsamples should always be interpreted cautiously, multiple readings have placed the federal Conservatives around or below the 20% mark in Quebec.

That weakness stands in sharp contrast with the party’s performance elsewhere in Canada. National polling continues to show Conservatives with a much larger share than they receive in Quebec, but Quebec’s 78 federal districts require a distinct political strategy. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord once offered evidence that Conservatives could overcome that challenge through a strong local candidate. Losing it immediately after Martel’s departure would suggest the formula was less transferable than party organizers might have hoped. More importantly, a fall from 34.1% to the mid-teens would make this more than an ordinary by-election defeat. It would suggest that Conservative support has compressed significantly in a region where the party recently demonstrated that it could win.

Turnout and Undecided Voters Can Still Rewrite the Ending

The late numbers contain enough uncertainty to keep both leading campaigns working until polls close. Segma reported that 13% of respondents remained undecided, while another 3% declined to reveal their preference. Those voters represent a much larger share than the 2.5-point difference separating Gobeil and Dubé. Even modest late movement could therefore reverse their positions. By-elections add another uncertainty because the voters who actually appear at polling stations may differ substantially from the broader electorate measured by a poll.

There are signs of meaningful engagement. Elections Canada estimated that approximately 11,000 people in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord voted during the four advance-poll days. With roughly 74,950 registered electors, that represents close to 15% of the electorate before election day itself. For comparison, 14,327 voters cast advance ballots in the riding during the 2025 general election, when total turnout ultimately reached roughly 68.5%. The by-election will almost certainly operate under different conditions, but a substantial advance vote means thousands of decisions were already locked in before the final campaign messages landed. The remaining contest is therefore as much about identifying and mobilizing supporters as persuading the final undecided voters.

Monday’s Result Will Carry a Message Beyond Chicoutimi—Le Fjord

A Liberal victory would give Carney’s party something politically valuable: a direct pickup from the Conservatives in a francophone Quebec riding the Liberals failed to win during the 2025 general election. It would also reinforce the argument that being connected to the governing party carries weight during a period of heightened economic uncertainty. If Gobeil wins while approaching 40%, the Liberals could point to successful candidate recruitment and an ability to attract voters outside their traditional urban strongholds. Yet a narrow result against the Bloc would also underline how competitive Quebec remains.

For the Conservatives, the raw vote share may matter almost as much as the winner. Losing Martel’s former riding with 30% would tell one story; falling into the mid-teens would tell a substantially more troubling one. The Bloc, meanwhile, can transform the entire narrative with a modest polling miss and a strong turnout operation. Elections Canada has scheduled voting for Monday, August 31, with polls open from 9:30 a.m. until 9:30 p.m. local time. Until those ballots are counted, Chicoutimi—Le Fjord remains a close Liberal-Bloc contest—but the evidence available before election day clearly shows one major change already: the Conservatives are no longer at the centre of it.

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