Ford’s Endorsement Sways Just 15% as Former Liberal Leader Crombie Ties Parrish in Mississauga: Poll

35,000+ smart investors are already getting financial news, market signals, and macro shifts in the economy that could impact their money next with our FREE weekly newsletter. Get ahead of what the crowd finds out too late. Click Here to Subscribe for FREE.

Mississauga’s mayoral contest has turned into a remarkably tight battle between the woman currently running City Hall and the former mayor seeking her old job back. New Liaison Strategies polling puts Mayor Carolyn Parrish and former Ontario Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie level at 35% among decided and leaning voters. The uncertainty runs deeper among the full electorate: both sit at 26%, exactly matching the share that remains undecided.

The numbers also complicate Premier Doug Ford’s outspoken support for Parrish. Only 15% say Ford’s backing would make them more likely to support a candidate, while a considerably larger group says it would push them in the opposite direction. With affordability, taxes and housing dominating local concerns, the contest appears increasingly likely to be decided by municipal pressures rather than provincial political loyalties.

A Dead Heat With a Quarter of Voters Still Up for Grabs

The headline number could hardly be closer. Liaison Strategies reports Parrish and Crombie at 35% each among respondents who have decided or are leaning toward a candidate. Councillor Dipika Damerla follows at 18%, while Councillor Alvin Tedjo stands at 12%. That makes Parrish and Crombie the clear front-runners at this point, but neither has established the kind of advantage that would allow the race to be described as settled. A shift of only a few percentage points could change the apparent leader before voters cast their ballots.

The broader numbers make the uncertainty even more striking. When undecided respondents are included, Parrish and Crombie each attract 26%, Damerla receives 13% and Tedjo receives 9%. Another 26% are undecided—meaning the uncommitted bloc is as large as either front-runner’s current support. In practical terms, roughly one voter in four approached by the pollster has not yet chosen a side. That creates an unusually large audience for campaign messages, debates, endorsements and late-breaking local issues during the remaining weeks.

Ford’s Backing Looks More Like a Risk Than an Automatic Advantage

Premier Doug Ford has made little mystery of where he stands. Earlier this year, he publicly praised Parrish and said he would send an “army” of supporters to help her if Crombie attempted to reclaim the mayor’s office. The comments transformed what is formally a municipal contest into another chapter of the long-running political rivalry between Ford and Crombie. Yet the new numbers suggest the premier’s intervention may not automatically provide the electoral lift that a high-profile endorsement normally seeks to deliver.

Only 15% of respondents said Ford’s support for a candidate would make them more likely to vote for that person. By contrast, 39% said his endorsement would make them less likely to do so. That 24-point gap is why Liaison characterized the environment around Ford’s endorsement as negative. Importantly, the 15% figure does not mean only 15% would be influenced at all; it specifically measures those who would become more likely to support a Ford-backed candidate. For Parrish, the challenge is benefiting from cooperation with Queen’s Park without allowing the mayoral campaign to become a referendum on the premier.

Crombie’s Return Brings a Decade of City Hall History Back Into the Race

Crombie is hardly approaching Mississauga voters as an unfamiliar challenger. She served as mayor from 2014 until January 2024, leaving the office after winning the Ontario Liberal leadership. Her provincial move did not produce the outcome she wanted. Crombie failed to win Mississauga East—Cooksville in the 2025 Ontario election, and after receiving 57% support in a Liberal leadership review later that year, she eventually stepped aside. Her formal resignation as party leader took effect on January 14, 2026.

She returned to municipal politics this summer, officially registering for the Mississauga mayoral contest on July 14. That gives the race an unusual dynamic: the current mayor is effectively defending a position that became available because her principal challenger left it. Crombie also carries substantial electoral history in the city. She won three mayoral elections before departing, including commanding victories in 2018 and 2022. Her comeback campaign therefore does not need to create basic name recognition. Instead, it must persuade residents that returning to City Hall represents renewed commitment rather than a retreat from an unsuccessful provincial chapter.

Parrish Is an Incumbent, but the Incumbency Advantage Looks Fragile

Parrish entered the mayor’s office after winning the June 2024 by-election triggered by Crombie’s departure. That victory gave her only the remainder of the existing council term rather than a full four-year mandate, so voters are being asked to assess her leadership after a relatively short period in the mayor’s chair. The latest polling shows that assessment is mixed. Thirty-eight per cent approve of Parrish’s performance, 42% disapprove and another 20% remain unsure.

Those figures have moved noticeably since Liaison’s previous Mississauga polling in October 2025. At that time, Parrish had 45% approval and 40% disapproval, giving her a five-point positive net rating. She is now four points underwater, a nine-point swing in the balance between approval and disapproval. The wider mood presents another difficulty: 46% believe Mississauga is heading in the wrong direction, compared with 32% who say it is moving in the right direction. Incumbency still provides visibility and a record to defend, but those numbers give every challenger an opening to argue that residents should expect something different after October.

Damerla’s Rise Could Matter Far Beyond Third Place

The most important movement below the two leaders belongs to Dipika Damerla. Among decided and leaning voters, the Ward 7 councillor now sits at 18%. That is still 17 points behind Parrish and Crombie, but it represents a substantial improvement from Liaison’s October 2025 poll, when Damerla was at just 7%. In other words, her measured support has climbed by 11 percentage points while the two leaders remain locked together.

Tedjo, meanwhile, is at 12%, essentially unchanged from his 12% showing in the earlier poll. Those numbers matter because Mississauga has recent evidence that a multi-candidate mayoral contest can produce a winner without anything close to majority support. Parrish won the 2024 by-election with 43,494 votes, roughly 31% of ballots cast, while Tedjo finished second with 35,005 and Damerla third with 27,119. With several competitive candidates again seeking the mayoralty, neither Parrish nor Crombie necessarily needs to attract more than half of voters. A stronger Damerla campaign could therefore alter the mathematics at the top even without overtaking either front-runner.

Affordability Has Replaced Crime as the Leading Concern

The mayoral contest is unfolding against a changing set of voter priorities. Liaison found affordability was the most frequently selected issue facing Mississauga, cited by 19% of respondents. Taxes came next at 17%, followed closely by housing at 16%. Crime and traffic were each identified by 13%. No single concern dominates, but the concentration of affordability, taxation and housing near the top suggests household finances are becoming central to the campaign.

That represents a significant shift from Liaison’s October 2025 Mississauga polling, when crime led the issue rankings at 29%. Crime has not disappeared as a political concern, but economic pressures have moved ahead of it. That changes the kind of pitch likely to resonate with voters. Candidates can still campaign on policing and neighbourhood safety, yet many residents appear equally focused on what municipal decisions mean for property-tax bills, housing availability and everyday costs. For Parrish, that puts City Hall’s record under scrutiny. For Crombie, Damerla and Tedjo, it creates an opportunity—but also requires credible explanations of how promised improvements would be financed.

Voters Want Safer Communities but Show Resistance to Paying More for Policing

Public safety produces one of the poll’s clearest contradictions. Forty-five per cent of respondents said Mississauga feels less safe than it did one year earlier. Violent crime and property crime also ranked as the leading priorities respondents wanted Peel Regional Police to address. Those findings indicate that safety concerns remain emotionally and politically significant even though crime is no longer the single most frequently named municipal issue.

The complication emerges when additional police spending is connected directly to household costs. When respondents were asked about a Peel Regional Police budget increase in a context that could mean higher property taxes or reductions elsewhere, only 25% supported the increase while 49% opposed it. Another 57% said increases in the police budget had been either a major or moderate factor in recent property-tax increases. That leaves mayoral candidates facing competing demands: voters want visible action on safety while also showing strong resistance to larger tax burdens. The candidate who can convincingly connect effective policing with financial discipline may have an advantage in a campaign increasingly shaped by affordability.

The Poll Is a Snapshot, Not an Election Forecast

The Liaison poll was conducted August 11 and 12 among a random sample of 1,000 Mississauga residents using interactive voice response technology. Respondents were contacted through random-digit dialing across landline and cellular networks, and the results were weighted to demographic targets based on the 2021 Census. For the full sample, the reported margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Margins are larger when looking at smaller subgroups.

Those details are particularly important in a race where the two leading candidates are tied. A 35%-to-35% result should not be interpreted as proof that Parrish and Crombie have precisely identical support across the city. Sampling variability alone can move measured support several points in either direction, while turnout and late campaign developments introduce additional uncertainty that polling cannot eliminate. The large undecided population adds another layer. The most defensible interpretation is therefore not that the election is destined for a tie, but that neither leading campaign currently has a measurable advantage large enough to establish clear dominance.

Mississauga Has More Than Two Months for the Race to Change Again

Election day is scheduled for Monday, October 26, while Mississauga’s candidate nomination period does not close until August 21 at 2 p.m. Advance voting will run from October 6 through October 11. That leaves considerable campaign time between the publication of these numbers and the point at which most residents actually make their choice. The 26% undecided share gives candidates an especially strong reason to treat the remaining weeks as consequential rather than assuming voter preferences have hardened.

Recent history also warns against treating a mid-campaign poll as a final result. The 2024 by-election went through substantial shifts in polling before Parrish ultimately won with 43,494 votes, ahead of Tedjo’s 35,005 and Damerla’s 27,119. This time Crombie adds a former mayor with extensive citywide recognition to an already competitive field. Parrish has incumbency, Crombie has a lengthy mayoral record, Damerla is gaining ground and Tedjo retains a meaningful base. Ford’s intervention adds another political variable, but the latest evidence suggests Mississauga voters—not Queen’s Park—remain firmly in control of how consequential that endorsement ultimately becomes.

This Options Discord Chat is The Real Deal

While the internet is scoured with trading chat rooms, many of which even charge upwards of thousands of dollars to join, this smaller options trading discord chatroom is the real deal and actually providing valuable trade setups, education, and community without the noise and spam of the larger more expensive rooms. With a incredibly low-cost monthly fee, Options Trading Club (click here to see their reviews) requires an application to join ensuring that every member is dedicated and serious about taking their trading to the next level. If you are looking for a change in your trading strategies, then click here to apply for a membership.