‘62% of Canadians Demand Counter-Tariffs as Confidence in Carney Drops Eight Points’

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Canada’s trade fight with Washington has entered a more combustible phase. A clear majority of Canadians now favour counter-tariffs if the United States proceeds with a new 50% levy on selected Canadian goods, yet confidence that Prime Minister Mark Carney can negotiate a favourable outcome has weakened. The combination matters: public patience for concessions is thin, but retaliation can also raise prices and deepen economic uncertainty at home.

The pressure is building around an August 19 deadline, with provincial leaders debating how far Canada should go and households already changing what they buy. Carney’s challenge is no longer simply to sound firm. Ottawa must show that any response can defend workers, preserve leverage and avoid turning national frustration into unnecessary costs for Canadian families.

A Clear Mandate to Push Back

The latest Angus Reid Institute findings show that 62% of Canadian adults want Ottawa to answer new U.S. tariffs with counter-tariffs. That majority is not united on the size of the response: 34% favour matching the American duties dollar for dollar, while 28% prefer more limited retaliation. Another 19% want Canada to keep negotiating without imposing new duties, and only 7% support making concessions to prevent the tariffs. The result points to a public mood that is defensive rather than reckless. Most Canadians want resistance, but nearly half of those supporting retaliation still prefer something short of a full mirror response.

The numbers come from an online study of 1,790 Canadian adults conducted from July 23 to 25 and weighted to reflect the population by region, age, gender, household income and education. For comparison, a probability sample of that size would have a margin of error of about two percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The strongest message is not that Canadians agree on every tactic. It is that surrendering major bargaining positions is the least popular path available to Ottawa.

The Eight-Point Drop Is More Specific Than It Sounds

Confidence in Carney’s ability to secure a good deal has fallen to 43%, down from 51% in April. Half of respondents now say they are not confident. Within that group, 26% believe the government is poorly equipped to handle the negotiations, while 24% blame the Trump administration’s unpredictability. That distinction is politically important. Some Canadians are losing faith in Ottawa’s performance, but nearly as many appear to believe that no Canadian negotiating team can reliably manage a U.S. administration capable of abruptly changing its demands.

The eight-point decline should not be described as an eight-point collapse in Carney’s overall approval rating. It measures confidence in a specific task: obtaining a favourable trade outcome. Separate national tracking earlier in July placed Carney’s personal approval at 56%, while another study put approval of the federal government at 52%. Those findings were collected before the newest tariff threat and cannot be directly combined with Angus Reid’s figures. Still, they suggest a prime minister who retains broader political support while facing rising skepticism about the central promise on which much of that support was built—managing Donald Trump more effectively than his rivals could.

August 19 Turns Public Anger Into a Deadline

The immediate pressure comes from Washington’s plan to impose 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian products beginning August 19 if no agreement is reached. The affected categories include liquor, honey, cement, dairy products, some wood products and hockey sticks. Energy, potash, fish and critical minerals were excluded from the announced list. Desjardins estimated that the measures could affect roughly C$28 billion in annual Canadian exports, equal to about 5% of the goods the United States imports from Canada.

That percentage may sound contained, but the economic relationship is unusually integrated. Canada-U.S. merchandise trade surpassed C$1 trillion in 2024 for a third consecutive year, and nearly two-thirds of Canadian exporting businesses that sold abroad that year relied on the United States as their only export market. For a factory worker in Ontario or a small food producer in Quebec, the dispute is not an abstract contest between capitals. A tariff can mean fewer orders, delayed investment or an anxious look at the next shift schedule. The deadline therefore concentrates both political anger and real commercial risk.

Counter-Tariffs Carry a Cost at Home

Retaliation can create leverage, but a tariff is also a tax collected at the border and often absorbed partly by domestic importers, retailers and consumers. Bank of Canada researchers examined more than 110,000 products sold by seven major Canadian retailers during the 2025 counter-tariff episode. Prices of tariffed U.S. goods rose gradually and peaked about 6% above comparable untariffed products after three months. That represented roughly one-quarter of the 25% tariff being passed through to retail prices rather than the full levy.

The same research estimated that counter-tariffs added about 0.3 percentage points to consumer price inflation. Prices moved back toward previous relative levels after most of the duties were removed, especially for groceries and appliances. The lesson is not that retaliation never works; it is that the design matters. Duties aimed at politically sensitive U.S. exports can pressure American producers, while broad measures on hard-to-replace inputs can punish Canadian manufacturers and shoppers. A household may support a tough response in principle and still feel the consequence when an appliance, packaged food or business supply suddenly costs more.

Premiers Agree on Resistance, Not the Weapon

Canada’s premiers have largely agreed that the U.S. threat is unjustified, but they are divided over how to respond. Ontario Premier Doug Ford has called for matching American tariffs dollar for dollar, reflecting the exposure of Ontario’s manufacturing and auto sectors. British Columbia Premier David Eby has raised the possibility of limiting U.S. access to critical minerals such as copper, zinc and aluminum. Those proposals are designed to create pressure in parts of the American economy that depend on Canadian supply.

Alberta and Saskatchewan have resisted export restrictions or duties on commodities such as oil and potash, arguing that such measures could damage their own producers and weaken Canada’s reliability as a supplier. The disagreement reveals the difficulty behind slogans about national unity. A measure that looks powerful in Toronto may appear self-defeating in Calgary or Regina. Carney has said everything is on the table if negotiations fail, but he has also rejected acting before the deadline. Ottawa must preserve a united front while choosing tools whose costs are not concentrated unfairly in one province or industry.

Cars Are Negotiable; Dairy Is a Red Line

Canadians do not view every trade concession in the same way. The Angus Reid findings show 42% support removing Canadian tariffs on U.S.-made vehicles, compared with 37% who oppose doing so. That makes autos the most negotiable of the three major irritants identified by Washington. The mood changes on alcohol: 48% oppose returning U.S. products to provincially controlled liquor-store shelves, while 38% support their return. Resistance is strongest on dairy, where 61% oppose opening the Canadian market further and only 28% support it.

Supply management remains especially sensitive because it is tied to farm income, production quotas and controlled imports. Forty-two percent say Canada should defend the system even if that brings U.S. retaliation. Another 28% would use it only as a last-resort bargaining chip, while 16% favour ending it immediately. These divisions give Ottawa some room to negotiate around vehicles, but far less flexibility on dairy. A deal that protects factories while appearing to sacrifice farmers could quickly fracture the coalition demanding a strong national response.

The Buy-Canadian Shift Is No Longer Symbolic

Consumer behaviour has already become part of the trade response. NielsenIQ reported that sales of U.S.-made food products were down 6.9% in early 2025, while Canadian-made products gained ground in several categories. In the newest Angus Reid findings, 40% of grocery buyers and 39% of alcohol buyers say they check a product’s origin in stores. Most of those label-checkers say they have put an American item back and chosen a Canadian or other non-U.S. alternative instead.

The alcohol sector shows how quickly political anger can become commercial damage. An American industry report found that U.S. spirits exports to Canada fell by more than 70% year over year from March through December 2025 after provinces removed American products from shelves. Looking ahead, 60% of Canadians say they would probably or definitely avoid U.S. wine, beer and spirits even with expanded access. For a shopper turning a jar around to find its country of origin, the decision may feel small. Repeated across millions of purchases, it becomes a market signal that can outlast the policy dispute that started it.

Carney Still Has Political Room—but Less Patience

Carney enters this confrontation with more political room than the eight-point confidence decline might imply. Abacus Data’s mid-July tracking placed the Liberals at 43% among committed voters, six points ahead of the Conservatives, while 52% approved of the federal government’s performance. The Liberals also held a major advantage among people who identified Trump as a top concern: 63% said the Liberals were best positioned to manage that issue, compared with 15% for the Conservatives.

The vulnerability lies elsewhere. The Conservatives led among voters focused on the cost of living, the economy, housing, immigration, crime and job security. A prolonged tariff fight could connect Carney’s strongest issue—standing up to Trump—with the domestic issues on which his opponents are more competitive. If retaliation raises prices, investment stalls or layoffs spread, public support for toughness may become conditional. Canadians may accept short-term sacrifice when they believe a strategy is working. They are less likely to accept pain that appears improvised, unevenly distributed or followed by another concession that produces no lasting agreement.

The Test Is Whether Ottawa Can Be Tough and Precise

A credible response would need to satisfy two demands that can pull in opposite directions: demonstrate that Canada will not absorb unilateral pressure quietly, while shielding Canadian households and businesses from avoidable harm. Ottawa’s 2025 approach offers one model. The federal government imposed 25% counter-tariffs on C$29.8 billion in U.S. goods while creating a remission process for products that could not reasonably be sourced in Canada or from non-U.S. suppliers. That kind of targeting can preserve pressure without treating every import as equally replaceable.

Carney’s decision not to retaliate before August 19 gives negotiators time, but it also raises expectations for what comes next. A limited response could look weak unless its targets are clearly explained. A dollar-for-dollar response could look strong while quietly increasing costs for Canadian firms. The public numbers give Ottawa a mandate to resist, not a blank cheque for escalation. The political outcome will depend on whether Canadians see a disciplined strategy: clear objectives, protection for exposed workers, coordinated provincial support and an exit path that does not rely solely on trusting Washington to keep its word.

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