Poilievre Gains Ground as Liberal Lead Shrinks to 6 Points

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Canada’s federal political contest is beginning to look less settled. The Liberals remain ahead, but a new national tracker places them at 41 per cent support among decided and leaning voters, compared with 35 per cent for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. That six-point advantage is down from nine points one week earlier.

The movement is not a dramatic reversal, nor does it put the Conservatives in the lead. It does, however, give Poilievre a more encouraging political picture than he faced earlier in the summer. His personal ratings have improved, younger voters are almost evenly divided between the two largest parties, and British Columbia has become increasingly competitive. Mark Carney continues to hold majority approval as prime minister, but the numbers suggest the Liberals can no longer assume their wider leads will automatically endure.

A Six-Point Lead Changes the Political Conversation

The latest Liaison Strategies tracker places the Liberals at 41 per cent among decided and leaning voters, followed by the Conservatives at 35 per cent. The NDP stands at 14 per cent, the Bloc Québécois at six per cent and the Greens at two per cent. The People’s Party and other parties each receive one per cent. The Liberals therefore remain in first place, but the national race is noticeably closer than it was only a week earlier.

Among all respondents, including those who had not settled on a party, Liberal support was 36 per cent and Conservative support was 31 per cent. Fourteen per cent were undecided. That undecided group matters because it represents voters whose eventual choices could widen the Liberal advantage, further tighten the contest or strengthen smaller parties. For political organizers, a six-point race creates a different atmosphere than a double-digit lead. Opposition volunteers see a path forward, government MPs feel greater pressure to defend their records, and announcements that once appeared routine can suddenly carry more political weight.

The Conservatives Gained, but the Shift Remains Modest

The narrowing occurred through movement on both sides of the contest. Liberal support declined two percentage points from the previous tracker, falling from 43 to 41 per cent. Conservative support increased from 34 to 35 per cent, while the NDP remained unchanged at 14 per cent. Those movements reduced the Liberal advantage from nine points to six without producing anything close to a Conservative surge.

The wider polling landscape also counsels against treating one release as a permanent turning point. A Leger measurement conducted in late June placed the Liberals at 48 per cent and the Conservatives at 34 per cent among decided voters. An Abacus Data study conducted around the beginning of June showed a smaller but still significant Liberal advantage of 44 to 36 per cent. Different firms use different field dates, sampling methods and voter screens, so their toplines will not always match. Taken together, the findings suggest that the Liberals continue to lead nationally, while the size and durability of that lead remain open questions.

Poilievre’s Personal Ratings Are Moving in the Right Direction

Poilievre received another encouraging result in the leadership numbers. Thirty-nine per cent of respondents held a favourable opinion of the Conservative leader, up from 37 per cent one week earlier. His unfavourable rating declined from 50 to 48 per cent. Eight per cent were unsure how they viewed him, while five per cent said they were not familiar enough with him to offer an opinion.

That still leaves Poilievre with a net-negative personal rating, since more respondents view him unfavourably than favourably. Yet the direction of movement is important. In late June, he also reached 39 per cent favourable and 47 per cent unfavourable, his strongest overall result in Liaison’s tracker at the time. The Conservative challenge has been turning improvements in Poilievre’s image into sustained growth for the party. This week, both measures moved favourably: his ratings improved while Conservative support rose by one point. One release cannot establish a lasting transformation, but it offers evidence that his political ceiling may not be as fixed as critics have argued.

Carney Remains Popular Despite a Small Decline

Prime Minister Mark Carney continues to hold a stronger personal position than the federal vote numbers alone might suggest. Fifty-six per cent of respondents approved of his performance, while 36 per cent disapproved and eight per cent were unsure. His approval rating declined from 58 per cent over the previous two trackers, while disapproval increased by one point.

The change is modest, and Carney remains comfortably in positive territory. His 56 per cent approval is also above the lowest result recorded for him in Liaison’s tracker, which was 55 per cent. Still, the movement reinforces the impression that the government’s momentum has cooled. Earlier in the year, the Liberals benefited from a political environment in which Carney’s approval, government satisfaction and party support frequently moved upward together. The latest figures are more complicated: the prime minister remains personally popular, but Liberal voting intention has slipped. For the government, the task is converting confidence in Carney’s leadership into durable support for Liberal candidates and policies.

Younger Voters Are Almost Evenly Divided

The most competitive age group is now the youngest one measured. Among voters aged 18 to 34, the Liberals stand at 33 per cent and the Conservatives at 32 per cent. The NDP receives 23 per cent, giving it a far stronger position among younger adults than its 14 per cent national result. One week earlier, the Liberals led the Conservatives by six points within this age group, 35 to 29.

The one-point gap should be interpreted carefully because age-based results come from smaller portions of the overall sample and are therefore less precise than the national totals. Even so, the numbers reveal a meaningful political contest. Younger adults dealing with rent, home prices, entry-level employment and everyday costs are not consolidating overwhelmingly behind one party. The Conservatives are competitive, but the NDP’s 23 per cent prevents the youth vote from becoming a simple Liberal-Conservative contest. A party that can connect economic concerns to a credible plan for housing, wages and public services may find considerable room to grow among these voters.

Older Canadians Continue to Anchor Liberal Support

The Liberal advantage is much larger among older voters. Among Canadians aged 65 and over, the party leads the Conservatives by 54 to 30 per cent. That 24-point margin helps explain how the Liberals can maintain a national lead even while younger voters appear almost evenly divided. It also points to a coalition that differs sharply by generation.

Older Canadians have continued to give Carney and the Liberals some of their strongest results across multiple polling firms. Leger’s June research similarly found that older respondents were among the groups most supportive of both the prime minister and the federal government. For the Conservatives, reducing that deficit could require reassurance on issues such as retirement security, health care and economic stability. For the Liberals, the risk is becoming too dependent on one demographic advantage while younger and middle-aged voters remain more competitive. A durable national coalition generally requires support across generations rather than overwhelming strength among older voters alone.

British Columbia Is Becoming a Three-Party Battleground

British Columbia produced one of the tracker’s closest regional contests. The Liberals registered 38 per cent support, followed by the Conservatives at 35 per cent and the NDP at 23 per cent. The three-point gap between the two leading parties makes the province far more competitive than regions where either the Liberals or Conservatives hold a dominant advantage.

The NDP’s strength adds another layer. Nationally, the party is at 14 per cent, but its British Columbia result is nine points higher. That means close Liberal-Conservative contests could be affected by whether progressive voters consolidate behind the Liberals or remain with the NDP. At the same time, Conservative growth could make suburban and exurban communities more competitive. Regional numbers should be treated as directional because their samples are smaller than the national total. Nevertheless, several consecutive Liaison trackers have shown the NDP performing substantially better in British Columbia than nationally, making the province an important test of all three parties’ ability to expand beyond their most dependable supporters.

Economic Concerns Could Determine Whether the Shift Lasts

The most important question is not whether the Conservatives had one better week. It is whether they can maintain their gains while persuading more Canadians that they offer the strongest response to the country’s major concerns. A separate Abacus Data study found that 66 per cent of respondents selected the rising cost of living as one of the federal government’s three most important priorities. The economy followed at 39 per cent, health care at 34 per cent and housing affordability at 33 per cent.

Those findings help explain why political support can shift even when leadership ratings remain relatively stable. A household facing a rent increase, an expensive grocery bill or uncertainty at work may judge the government differently from one month to the next. Poilievre has an opportunity to connect those pressures to his economic message, but he still carries higher unfavourability than favourability. Carney retains the advantage of majority approval, but the Liberals must demonstrate that personal confidence in the prime minister is producing visible improvements. The next several trackers will show whether the six-point gap is temporary movement or the beginning of a genuinely tighter race.

The Result Is a Signal, Not an Election Forecast

Liaison surveyed 1,526 Canadians from June 28 to July 11 using interactive voice response technology and random-digit dialing across landline and cellular networks. The results were weighted using 2021 Census targets. The reported margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The field dates also overlap with the previous tracker, which collected responses from June 21 to July 4. The two releases are therefore not entirely separate snapshots, another reason to avoid interpreting a single week’s movement as a decisive realignment. Sampling variation means small changes can occur even when underlying public opinion has not shifted substantially. The responsible conclusion is narrower: the Liberals remain ahead, the Conservatives have reduced the gap, and Poilievre’s personal standing has improved. Confirmation would require the pattern to continue across several releases and appear in polling conducted by other firms. Until then, the latest numbers represent an opportunity for the Conservatives and a warning for the Liberals—not proof that the national balance of power has fundamentally changed.

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