New Poll Shows Carney Pulling Away as Poilievre’s Image Problem Deepens

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Based on publicly available Canadian polling and leader-tracking released through May 11, 2026.

A few months can completely reorder a political race, and Canada’s federal picture now looks far different from the one many expected not long ago. The latest national readings are pointing in the same direction: Mark Carney is not just ahead, but increasingly benefiting from a contrast that appears to be helping him with voters who want steadiness more than confrontation.

This piece breaks down 10 key signals behind that shift, from ballot numbers and leadership ratings to regional trouble spots, demographic divides, and the growing sense that Pierre Poilievre’s biggest obstacle may now be his public image rather than his message alone.

A Lead That Is Showing Up Across Multiple Pollsters

The clearest reason this story has traction is simple: the gap is not appearing in just one set of numbers. Abacus Data’s latest federal tracking puts the Liberals at 46% and the Conservatives at 36% among decided voters. Leger’s late-April snapshot puts the Liberals at 48% and the Conservatives at 37%. Nanos, using its rolling national tracker, has the Liberals at 44.8% and the Conservatives at 32.0%.

Those margins are not identical, but the direction is. In politics, that kind of repetition matters more than any single headline number. When different firms using different methods all point to the same broad conclusion, it becomes harder to dismiss as noise. That does not mean the race is permanently settled. It does mean the current national mood is giving Carney more breathing room than Poilievre.

Carney Is Winning More Than the Ballot Test

It is one thing for a party to lead. It is another for its leader to clearly outclass the alternative in personal standing. That is where Carney’s numbers look especially strong. Nanos has him as the preferred prime minister of 51.1% of Canadians, compared with 24.4% for Poilievre. Abacus also gives Carney a positive net impression of +26, while Leger finds 59% approve of his performance.

The pattern suggests voters are not only parking with the Liberals by default. Many appear to be making a deliberate judgment about who feels safer in the job. Abacus’s brand research helps explain why: Canadians most often describe Carney as competent, steady, and forward-looking. Those are not flashy traits, but they tend to matter when people feel uncertain about the economy, trade, and what comes next.

Poilievre’s Negative Ratings Are Becoming Harder to Ignore

Poilievre still has a committed base, but the broader public numbers are now a real warning sign. Abacus finds 45% of Canadians have a negative impression of him, compared with 35% who view him positively. Angus Reid goes further, saying his unfavourable rating has peaked at 60% in recent months, including in its new data. That is the kind of figure that starts to shape the entire media frame around a leader.

Once a politician becomes widely seen as divisive, every new controversy lands harder. Every sharp exchange gets filtered through a story voters already think they understand. That is what makes an image problem so stubborn. It stops being about one bad week and starts becoming the lens through which everything else is judged. For Poilievre, that may now be the larger challenge.

Women and Older Voters Are Widening the Problem

Abacus’s demographic splits suggest Poilievre’s weakness is not evenly distributed. Among women, the Liberals lead the Conservatives by 47% to 32%. Among men, the gap is narrower at 45% to 39%. Age matters too. Among voters 60 and over, the Liberals lead by 54% to 32%, while the 30-to-44 group is essentially tied at 40% to 39%.

That matters because older voters are more reliable voters, and women often help decide the tone of suburban races where elections can tilt. A party does not need to win every demographic, but it usually needs a workable coalition across the groups most likely to show up. Right now, the Conservative path looks narrower because the Liberal lead is strongest exactly where durability tends to matter most.

Ontario Is Starting to Look Like a Serious Barrier

Any federal party hoping to form government has to make Ontario work. Right now, the numbers there are not helping the Conservatives. Abacus puts the Liberals at 50% in Ontario, compared with 37% for the Conservatives. The same polling also finds 64% of Ontarians would at least consider voting Liberal, versus 52% who would consider voting Conservative. That suggests not only current support, but a broader pool of persuadable voters.

Ontario is where national narratives often get stress-tested against daily life. Voters there are deeply exposed to mortgage anxiety, cost-of-living strain, commuter frustration, and economic uncertainty. If a leader is seen as too sharp, too ideological, or too polarizing, those doubts tend to get amplified. That helps explain why Poilievre’s image problem is especially costly in the province that usually decides whether momentum becomes power.

Quebec Keeps Limiting the Conservative Ceiling

Poilievre’s national math also gets tougher in Quebec. Abacus has the Liberals at 48% there, the Bloc at 26%, and the Conservatives at just 20%. On voter openness, the gap is also striking: 61% of Quebecers say they would consider voting Liberal, compared with 33% for the Conservatives. Leger likewise finds Quebec to be one of the places where satisfaction with the federal government is strongest.

A party can still compete nationally without dominating Quebec, but it becomes much harder to build a comfortable path without at least a respectable foothold. The Conservatives are not just trailing there; they appear boxed in. For Poilievre, that means every missed opportunity in Quebec increases the burden elsewhere. It raises the pressure on Ontario, British Columbia, and the Prairies to do more of the work.

The Biggest Issue Still Isn’t Producing a Conservative Breakthrough

The most revealing part of the current landscape may be what is not happening. Cost of living remains the dominant national concern. Abacus says 66% of Canadians name rising costs as one of the top three issues facing the country, ahead of the economy, healthcare, housing, and even Trump-related concerns. Angus Reid, meanwhile, finds 70% say the government has fallen short on reducing the cost of living, and 67% say it has fallen short on housing affordability.

Normally, that kind of frustration should be fertile ground for an opposition leader. Yet the Conservatives are still not converting it into a national surge. That suggests many voters are unhappy, but not convinced Poilievre is the better answer. In other words, this may be less a policy failure for the opposition than a trust failure. People can want change and still hesitate over the person offering it.

Carney Benefits From Looking Like Change Without Looking Risky

One of Carney’s biggest advantages is that he seems to be getting credit for renewal without being treated as a leap into the unknown. Abacus finds 55% of Canadians believe his government represents a genuine break from the Trudeau years, while 45% see it as a continuation. That view is even stronger among older Canadians and in Ontario, two places where reassurance often carries political value.

That balance is rare and useful. Incumbents usually have to defend the record, while challengers promise a reset. Carney is managing to occupy part of both lanes at once. He still has the prestige and institutional weight of office, but many voters appear willing to believe the style and economic approach have changed. If that perception holds, Poilievre loses one of his easiest lines of attack.

Poilievre Still Owns His Base, but Cracks Are Showing

None of this means Poilievre has lost the Conservative movement. Angus Reid finds 75% of past Conservative voters still view him favourably. That is a powerful floor. But the same data shows the number of those past voters who want him replaced before the next election has risen to 30%, up from fewer than one in five last summer. His favourable standing among past Conservative voters has also slipped from 88% to 75%.

That is not a revolt, but it is enough to matter. Opposition leaders do not only need loyal supporters; they need supporters who project confidence outward. When even some of the home team starts to sound uncertain, it becomes harder to persuade swing voters that momentum is building. The problem is not that Poilievre lacks a base. It is that the base may no longer be large enough to mask the broader doubts around him.

The Country’s Mood Is Mixed, but Carney Is Still Better Placed

The national mood is not exactly sunny. Abacus finds Canadians split right down the middle on the direction of the country, with 44% saying Canada is headed in the right direction and 44% saying it is on the wrong track. Yet that balance is far less bleak than views of the world or the United States. At the same time, 57% approve of the job the Carney government is doing, while just 28% disapprove.

That combination helps explain why the Liberals can lead even while public frustration remains real. Canadians are not radiating confidence, but they are not in a full anti-incumbent revolt either. In that kind of environment, the leader who seems steadier usually has the edge. For now, Carney fits that role better. Poilievre’s challenge is no longer simply to sharpen his critique. It is to look like a less risky alternative.

The Real Test Ahead Is Whether Poilievre Can Expand Beyond His Ceiling

The final signal in these numbers may be the most important. Abacus finds 39% say they would re-elect the Liberals, while 37% say it is time for change and there is a good alternative. Another 24% say it is time for change, but there is not a good alternative. That last group is the opening any opposition would want. It is also a warning: dissatisfaction exists, but confidence in the alternative is incomplete.

That is where Poilievre’s image problem becomes politically decisive. If voters already want something different but still hesitate, the issue is not only message discipline or one more policy rollout. It is personal permission. Until more Canadians feel comfortable with him, not just angry at the government, Carney will keep benefiting from a race that remains as much about comfort level as ideology.

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