U.S. Tourism Industry Steps Up Canada Push as Trump Trade Fight Threatens Another Winter Boycott

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American tourism officials are making an increasingly visible effort to win Canadians back, but the political climate is making that sales pitch unusually difficult. Discounts designed specifically for Canadian travellers, destination marketing campaigns and new industry events are appearing as U.S. cities and states confront the damage left by the sharp pullback in Canadian travel that began in 2025.

There are signs that cross-border traffic has begun recovering from last year’s lows. The problem is that the comparison with 2024 remains stark, particularly for longer and higher-spending trips. With another snowbird season approaching and the Canada-U.S. trade dispute intensifying again, destinations from Florida to California are facing a crucial question: whether Canadians who stayed away last winter are ready to return, or whether political frustration has become a more durable change in travel habits.

The 2025 Pullback Was Far Bigger Than a Normal Tourism Slump

For decades, Canadians treated the United States almost like an extension of the domestic travel market. That changed dramatically in 2025. Canadian residents recorded 39 million return border crossings from the United States in 2024, representing roughly three-quarters of their international return crossings. By the end of 2025, the U.S. share had fallen to about two-thirds. Total Canadian return crossings from the United States declined 25.4% from 2024, an extraordinary change for two neighbouring countries connected by thousands of kilometres of border.

The financial impact was substantial as well. Canadian spending on U.S. visits declined by $3.3 billion in 2025 to $18.8 billion. Leisure spending accounted for most of the loss, falling $2.2 billion to $12.1 billion. That matters to hotels, restaurants, attractions and retailers because leisure visitors are particularly valuable customers. Statistics Canada described the early-2026 pattern as evidence of a persistent shift away from the United States rather than merely a temporary scheduling disruption.

U.S. Destinations Are Making Their Canadian Sales Pitch Hard to Miss

American tourism organizations have moved beyond generic messages about being welcoming. Some are putting substantial discounts directly in front of Canadians. New York City launched its Northern Neighbour Deal for travel between August 18 and September 7, with more than 85 participating hotels, attractions, Broadway productions, restaurants and other businesses offering 30% discounts. Porter Airlines separately offered discounts of up to 20% on New York itineraries under the promotion. Canada remains New York City’s second-largest international visitor market, with about 820,000 Canadian visitors forecast for 2026.

Las Vegas businesses have tried an even more eye-catching approach. Three downtown hotels—Circa, The D and Golden Gate—introduced an “at par” promotion that effectively treated one Canadian dollar as one U.S. dollar for qualifying purchases through August. At an exchange rate where one U.S. dollar had recently cost roughly C$1.37, the potential savings were significant. The message behind these promotions is straightforward: Canadian business has become valuable enough to justify unusually targeted incentives.

Brand USA Is Turning Canada Into a Bigger National Marketing Priority

The effort is not limited to individual states or cities. Brand USA, the country’s national destination-marketing organization, is expanding its activity in the Canadian market as destinations compete to rebuild demand. Its Travel Week program is coming to Canada in October 2026, bringing U.S. tourism organizations together with Canadian travel professionals. The gathering expands and rebrands the earlier Canada Connect format and is designed around meetings, networking and relationships with the Canadian travel trade.

Brand USA is also building campaigns that reach Canadians long before they arrive at a border crossing. Its fiscal-2027 Canada programs include marketing through Travelweek, Canada-focused audience campaigns, travel-agent education and a loyalty-marketing program using Blue Rewards, formerly Air Miles. One Travelweek package is designed to generate more than one million estimated impressions, while Brand USA says the publication’s newsletter database reaches about 25,000 travel agents. That level of investment illustrates how strategically important Canadian demand remains even after the steep decline of 2025.

The Summer Recovery Looks Better Until 2024 Is Used as the Benchmark

At first glance, the latest border numbers offer tourism operators some relief. Canadian-resident return trips from the United States by air and automobile reached approximately 2.28 million in July 2026, up 10.2% from July 2025. It was the fourth consecutive month of year-over-year growth. Automobile travel increased 12.8%, suggesting at least some Canadians were becoming more willing to cross the border again during the summer.

The longer comparison tells a much less reassuring story. Canadian automobile return trips from the United States remained 28.9% below July 2024 levels. Air travel was 26.8% lower than in July 2024 and actually declined another 1.4% compared with July 2025. Statistics Canada specifically cautioned that part of July’s impressive year-over-year increase reflected the extremely weak comparison period created by the 2025 pullback. In other words, the boycott-era floor has risen, but U.S. tourism has not come close to rebuilding the Canadian business it previously enjoyed.

Tourism Operators Need Overnight Visitors, Not Just Border Traffic

Crossing counts alone can hide one of the biggest issues facing the U.S. tourism business: not every trip is equally valuable. During the first quarter of 2026, Canadians made about 5.5 million trips that included a U.S. visit, 10.6% fewer than in the same quarter of 2025. Spending fell even faster, dropping 13.6% to approximately $5 billion. A Canadian making a same-day U.S. visit spent an average of $206, while the average overnight visitor spent $1,344 and stayed 7.9 nights.

That difference helps explain why tourism organizations are emphasizing hotels, attractions, flights and complete vacations rather than simply celebrating higher vehicle counts at the border. U.S. Travel Association figures similarly show how much ground remains to be recovered. Canadian visitation fell from about 20.2 million in 2024 to 16 million in 2025. Its spring forecast called for approximately 17 million visits in 2026—a meaningful improvement, but still around three million below the 2024 total and four million below its 2030 forecast.

Another Snowbird Season Could Become the Most Important Test Yet

Summer road trips can show whether Canadians are becoming more comfortable crossing the border, but winter travel carries much greater significance for parts of the United States. Florida, Arizona and California traditionally draw large numbers of Canadians escaping colder weather for extended stays. Those travellers can rent homes or hotel rooms for weeks or months, buy groceries, eat at restaurants and spend heavily on entertainment and services. The coming season therefore offers a clearer test of whether the political backlash is fading.

Florida welcomed an estimated 3.17 million Canadian visitors in 2025, according to revised state figures. That was 6.8% fewer than in 2024 and 22.4% below 2019. About 1.05 million Canadians still visited Florida during the first quarter of 2026, showing that the snowbird market certainly did not disappear. California experienced a much deeper shock: Canadian visitation declined 20.1% in 2025. Its current forecast anticipates a modest 2.6% recovery in 2026, underscoring how far destinations remain from replacing the lost business.

The Hardest Obstacle for Tourism Marketers May Be Outside Their Control

Tourism officials can lower hotel prices, advertise more aggressively and tell Canadians they are welcome. They cannot settle a trade dispute between Washington and Ottawa. That distinction has become increasingly important as the political relationship deteriorates again. The Associated Press reported that U.S. tourism officials had intensified their outreach just as renewed tariffs and combative political rhetoric threatened to strengthen the informal Canadian boycott. Recent trade negotiations have broken down, adding another layer of uncertainty before the winter booking season.

For some Canadians interviewed about their travel decisions, the issue has become emotional rather than purely financial. A Vancouver marketing executive who once regularly took his family to destinations including San Diego, Portland and Seattle chose Mexico instead and said his family had stopped visiting the United States. A Calgary traveller told AP that the latest trade confrontation reinforced her decision to avoid U.S. travel, even for flight connections. Those individual choices cannot represent an entire country, but they illustrate why a discount alone may not reverse politically motivated travel decisions.

Canadians Have Already Learned How to Vacation Somewhere Else

One reason the U.S. tourism industry faces a difficult recovery is that Canadian travel spending did not simply disappear. Much of it moved. Statistics Canada found that the 7.1-million decline in Canadian visits to the United States in 2025 was almost entirely offset by additional domestic and overseas travel. Domestic visits increased by about five million, while overseas visits rose by 1.3 million. Canadian visits to Europe increased 13.6%, and travel to Asia rose 16.7%.

The pattern continued into traditional winter vacation months. Canadians made approximately 1.3 million visits to Mexico during the first quarter of 2026, making it their most-visited overseas country. Visits to Japan increased by 79,000 from a year earlier, while France gained 57,000 and Mexico gained another 51,000. Overseas spending reached $10.1 billion in the quarter, up 16.7%. Once families establish new favourite resorts, flight routines or annual traditions elsewhere, winning them back can become more difficult than simply waiting for political tensions to subside.

Politics Is Not the Only Problem—The Canadian Dollar Still Matters

Even without political friction, U.S. destinations face an old problem with Canadian travellers: exchange rates can make an American vacation feel dramatically more expensive. The weaker Canadian dollar was already one of the headwinds affecting U.S. travel before the steep politically driven drop. Hotel bills, restaurant meals, attraction tickets and other purchases priced in U.S. dollars become substantially more expensive once converted back into Canadian currency, giving travellers another reason to compare American destinations with alternatives.

The industry’s newest promotions show how seriously it takes that problem. Downtown Las Vegas properties explicitly neutralized the exchange-rate disadvantage through their at-par offer. New York City’s 30% Canadian promotion was similarly presented as a way to help offset currency pressures. These are unusually direct attempts to solve the value equation rather than relying exclusively on destination advertising. They may persuade price-sensitive travellers who were already considering a U.S. trip, but their effectiveness with Canadians avoiding the country for political reasons is much less certain. Tourism marketers are effectively dealing with two separate barriers at the same time.

A Second Weak Winter Would Suggest Something More Permanent Is Happening

The broader U.S. tourism industry has significant reasons to want Canadian travel back quickly. International visits to the United States declined 5.5% in 2025 to 68.3 million, with U.S. Travel Association analysts identifying reduced Canadian visitation as the primary driver. The organization forecasts a recovery to 70.6 million international visits in 2026, but it does not expect overall inbound visitation to return to the 2019 level until 2029. Canadian demand therefore remains an important piece of a much larger international recovery challenge.

Winter 2026–27 could reveal whether the Canadian retreat is primarily cyclical or increasingly structural. A strong snowbird return would suggest that discounts, familiarity and warmer weather can eventually overcome political resentment. Another subdued season would be more troubling because it would show that Canadians have become comfortable redirecting both vacations and tourism dollars elsewhere. U.S. destinations can keep telling Canadians they are wanted and can make the price more attractive. Repairing the political relationship that helped create the boycott is a much larger task—and one the tourism industry cannot accomplish on its own.

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