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Washington’s trade fight with its closest neighbours is entering a sharper phase. The United States and Mexico have scheduled three bilateral negotiating rounds tied to the coming USMCA review, while Canada remains outside those announced sessions at a moment when tariff disputes are already straining North American supply chains.
The move does not automatically break the three-country trade pact. But it does signal that the Trump administration is willing to pursue separate pressure tracks with Mexico and Canada, using tariffs, rules-of-origin demands, and economic-security arguments to reshape the deal. For Canada, the timing is uncomfortable: the formal USMCA review is approaching, tariff countermeasures remain in place, and the continent’s auto, steel, aluminum, agriculture, and manufacturing sectors are watching closely.
Washington and Mexico Move First
The new schedule gives the U.S. and Mexico a defined path before the first formal USMCA joint review. The first round is set for May 28 and 29 in Mexico City, with talks focused on economic security and rules of origin for key industrial goods. A second round is scheduled for June 16 and 17 in Washington, D.C., adding agriculture and “level playing field” issues to the agenda. A third round is planned for the week of July 20 in Mexico City. The order of topics is telling: the United States is putting industrial content, supply-chain security, farming interests, and competitive fairness at the centre of the conversation before the broader trilateral review process reaches its key July milestone.
The bilateral format matters because USMCA was designed as a three-country framework, not a collection of separate side bargains. Yet the U.S. and Mexico have already been building momentum through earlier technical discussions. In March, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Mexican Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard launched review-related talks that emphasized reducing dependence on imports from outside North America, strengthening rules of origin, and making regional supply chains more secure. In April, the two sides agreed to move toward a formal negotiating round in Mexico City. By late May, that track had become a three-round calendar. For manufacturers, the message is practical: future tariff relief or trade benefits may depend less on simply being inside North America and more on proving that a product’s value is deeply rooted inside the region.
Tariffs Are Now Part of the Bargaining Table
The talks are unfolding under a tariff cloud that has changed the tone of North American trade. The Trump administration has signalled that tariffs on Canada and Mexico could remain even as USMCA discussions continue, with particular attention on autos, steel, aluminum, and the U.S. trade deficit. In the auto sector, the U.S. previously announced a 25 per cent tariff on imported passenger vehicles, light trucks, and key parts. That landed heavily in a region where a vehicle can cross borders multiple times before it reaches a dealer lot. A seat, engine component, or transmission part may be tied to suppliers in Ontario, Michigan, Ohio, Nuevo León, and beyond, which is why even a narrow tariff can ripple through factories that are technically competitors but operationally intertwined.
Canada has kept its own countermeasures on steel, aluminum, and automobiles, even after removing many broader counter-tariffs on U.S. goods. That creates a difficult backdrop for Ottawa. On one hand, Canada does not want to reward U.S. pressure by quickly dropping retaliatory measures while American sectoral tariffs remain. On the other hand, Mexico now has a scheduled path to discuss rules, exemptions, and regional priorities directly with Washington. For businesses, that raises an uncomfortable question: if Mexico can secure clearer treatment before Canada does, investment decisions may start shifting toward the country with the more predictable route into the U.S. market. For a parts supplier deciding where to expand, predictability can be nearly as valuable as a lower tax rate.
Canada’s Risk Is Being Defined by Others
Canada is not a minor player in this system. U.S. goods trade with Canada totalled an estimated $719.5 billion in 2025, while U.S. goods trade with Mexico reached an estimated $872.8 billion. Together, the two relationships represent one of the most important trade networks in the world, linking energy, food, vehicles, machinery, aerospace, metals, and consumer goods. Canada’s challenge is that the conversation is increasingly being framed around U.S. concerns with Mexico’s manufacturing growth, North American content rules, and trade with countries outside the region. If Washington and Mexico make early progress on those files, Canada could enter the broader review with less room to shape the agenda.
The political stakes are just as high as the economic ones. USMCA entered into force in 2020 as the replacement for NAFTA, with a built-in review mechanism that now gives all three countries a chance to revisit the pact’s operation. The review does not have to destroy the agreement, but uncertainty can still be costly. Automakers, farmers, steel producers, exporters, logistics companies, and retailers all plan around trade rules that affect pricing and investment years in advance. For Canadian officials, the immediate goal is not simply to be invited into a room. It is to prevent the next version of North American trade from being negotiated in pieces, with Canada reacting after the biggest rules have already been sketched out elsewhere.
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