Trump Trade Fight Sends Liberals to 46% as Conservatives Fall Below 30% for First Time in Liaison Tracker

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Canada’s escalating trade confrontation with Donald Trump is reshaping the political landscape at home, and the latest numbers show a striking advantage for Prime Minister Mark Carney. Liaison Strategies’ August 31 federal tracker places the Liberals at 46% among decided and leaning voters, compared with just 29% for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives — a 17-point gap and the Conservatives’ lowest level in Liaison’s federal tracking.

The timing is difficult to ignore. More than half of the interviews were conducted after Canada suspended negotiations with Washington and new U.S. tariffs took effect. Other recent polling also points toward a Liberal advantage as Canadians rally around Ottawa’s response. Still, polling cannot prove that the trade fight alone caused the movement, and other firms show a smaller Liberal lead. The numbers nevertheless reveal how dramatically the political environment has shifted.

Liaison Records a 17-Point Liberal Advantage

The headline numbers represent one of the clearest Liberal leads recorded in Liaison’s recent federal tracking. Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals reached 46%, while the Conservatives fell to 29%. The NDP remained at 13%, the Bloc Québécois stood at 6%, the Greens at 3%, the People’s Party at 2%, and other parties accounted for 1%. Liaison said the Conservative result was the party’s lowest national figure in its federal tracker.

The poll was not a small overnight snapshot. Liaison surveyed 1,526 Canadians between August 16 and August 29 using interactive voice response technology and random-digit dialing across landlines and cellphones. Results were weighted to 2021 Census targets, and Liaison reported a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Even allowing for that uncertainty, a 17-point national gap is politically significant. More importantly, it arrived as the Canada-U.S. dispute moved rapidly from negotiating rooms into household conversations about jobs, prices and economic security.

The Political Shift Followed a Dramatic Trade Breakdown

The turning point came on August 21. Carney announced that Canada was suspending negotiations with the United States after saying Washington had introduced last-minute terms his government considered unfair and economically unacceptable. Hours later, a new U.S. tariff regime took effect, imposing rates of up to 50% on roughly $27.6 billion worth of Canadian goods. Ottawa subsequently announced that it would match the measures dollar for dollar.

Canada’s retaliation is scheduled to take effect September 8, with tariffs of 15%, 25% and 50% targeting $27.6 billion in American imports. Products affected include goods connected to steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, plastics and electronics. Ottawa also announced $7.5 billion in new and enhanced assistance for businesses and workers exposed to the dispute. For people employed in tariff-sensitive industries, the confrontation is not simply diplomatic theatre. Export orders, investment decisions, overtime and hiring can all be affected when companies lose confidence in cross-border trading conditions.

The Liberal Lead Has Widened Quickly

The latest Liaison result matters partly because of how quickly the gap expanded. One week earlier, the firm had the Liberals at 43% and Conservatives at 32%, an 11-point advantage. The August 31 tracker therefore shows the Liberals gaining three points while the Conservatives lost three, transforming an already comfortable lead into a 17-point spread. Earlier in the summer, the contest had been considerably tighter: Liaison measured a six-point Liberal lead in mid-July.

The contrast with the 2025 federal election is even more striking. Elections Canada reported that the Liberals received about 43.8% of valid votes nationally and won 169 seats, while the Conservatives captured approximately 41.3% and 144 seats. The popular-vote difference was only about 2.5 points. Liaison’s latest numbers therefore do not simply reproduce the election result with a modest Liberal improvement; they show a Conservative share more than 12 points below its 2025 election performance. Polls and election results are different measurements, but the comparison illustrates the scale of the current challenge facing Poilievre.

Carney’s Personal Numbers Are Strengthening Too

The Liberal advantage is accompanied by stronger ratings for the prime minister himself. Liaison measured Carney’s approval at 64%, five points higher than in the previous tracker, while disapproval fell to 27%. His approval reached 80% in Quebec, 69% in Atlantic Canada, 67% in British Columbia and 62% in Ontario. Alberta remained substantially more skeptical, with 43% approving and 52% disapproving.

A separate Abacus Data study released at the same time points in the same general direction, although it uses different questions and methodology. Abacus found 56% approving of the federal government’s overall performance and 29% disapproving. Carney personally was viewed positively by 53% and negatively by 28%. That matters because the Liberal advantage is increasingly connected to the perception of leadership rather than party identification alone. During a confrontation with the United States, voters are watching the person negotiating, explaining the response and appearing with premiers and affected industries. Carney is currently benefiting from that visibility, although such advantages can disappear rapidly if economic consequences deepen.

Poilievre Faces a Leadership Problem Alongside the Polling Slide

For the Conservatives, the difficulty is not limited to party support. Liaison found just 33% of respondents holding a favourable opinion of Pierre Poilievre, compared with 55% who viewed him unfavourably. The pollster described the 55% figure as his worst unfavourable result since January. That creates a difficult political equation: Conservatives need to regain voters while their leader is simultaneously struggling with personal ratings across several vote-rich regions.

Poilievre’s support is far from disappearing everywhere. Liaison found 77% of Albertans viewed him favourably, while the figure reached 60% across Manitoba and Saskatchewan. The problem is what happens outside that western base. Liaison reported Poilievre underwater in Quebec, Ontario, Atlantic Canada and British Columbia, with 65% of British Columbians viewing him unfavourably. Federal elections are usually won by assembling support across several regions rather than dominating one. A leader can run up enormous margins in Alberta and still face a difficult path if suburban Ontario, Quebec and parts of British Columbia move decisively toward an opponent.

Ontario and Quebec Are Producing Especially Difficult Numbers

The regional breakdown helps explain why the national gap looks so large. Liaison places the Liberals at 50% in Ontario, compared with 32% for the Conservatives. Quebec is even more challenging for Poilievre: the Liberals stand at 46%, the Bloc Québécois at 26% and the Conservatives at only 17%. Liberals also lead in Atlantic Canada and British Columbia. Conservatives remain ahead in Alberta, while Manitoba and Saskatchewan are tied at 38% each between the two major parties.

Ontario is particularly important because it contains more House of Commons seats than any other province. In the 2025 election, Elections Canada recorded a much narrower Ontario popular vote split of roughly 49% Liberal to 43.8% Conservative. In Quebec, the 2025 figures were approximately 42.6% Liberal, 27.7% Bloc and 23.3% Conservative. Liaison’s current regional samples carry considerably more uncertainty than its national result, so individual numbers should not be treated as precise forecasts. The broader pattern, however, shows the Conservatives struggling in two provinces essential to forming government.

Women and Older Canadians Are Driving Much of the Liberal Advantage

The national 17-point lead masks major differences between demographic groups. Liaison found the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives by 52% to 23% among women. Among voters aged 65 and older, the gap was even larger at 60% Liberal to 24% Conservative. Men were significantly more competitive, with the Liberals holding only a 41% to 37% edge. These figures help explain why the overall Liberal number can climb sharply even when parts of the electorate remain closely divided.

Younger Canadians tell a very different story. Among people aged 18 to 34, Liaison measured the Liberals at 33%, Conservatives at 27% and NDP at 25%, creating a genuine three-party contest. Ipsos likewise found younger voters less enthusiastic about Ottawa’s trade strategy. In its August 26–27 polling, only 48% of Gen Z respondents supported standing firm against the United States, compared with roughly 80% among older baby boomers. Ipsos also found the Conservatives leading the Liberals 40% to 30% among Millennials. The Liberal coalition, therefore, is powerful but far from uniform across generations.

Other Pollsters Show a Liberal Lead — Just Not Always 17 Points

Liaison’s result should not be interpreted as proof that every polling firm now sees the Conservatives at 29%. Recent independent polling confirms a clear Liberal advantage but produces different margins. Abacus Data, surveying Canadians from August 21 through August 26, placed the Liberals at 45% and Conservatives at 35% among committed voters. That represented a 10-point Liberal lead, up from seven points in its previous wave.

Ipsos polling conducted August 26 and 27 for Global News similarly placed the Liberals at 44% and Conservatives at 33%, an 11-point advantage. Those results reinforce the direction of Liaison’s finding while cautioning against treating the 17-point spread as a settled national figure. Different polling methods, field dates, samples and weighting procedures naturally generate variation. The important development is the broader pattern: several recent measures show Carney’s Liberals clearly ahead. That is notably different from the 2025 election, when Elections Canada recorded only a 2.5-point popular-vote gap between the Liberals and Conservatives.

Canadians Appear to Be Rewarding a Tougher Response to Trump

There is growing evidence explaining why the U.S. confrontation may be helping the government. Ipsos found 63% of Canadians believed Canada had been right to stand firm during negotiations even if doing so risked higher costs or job losses. Only 18% preferred further Canadian concessions to secure a deal. Support for Ottawa’s planned dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs was even stronger at 73%.

Abacus offers another important clue. Its post-breakdown polling found that 45% of Canadians identified Donald Trump and his administration as one of the country’s three most important issues, an increase of seven points in two weeks. Among respondents who considered Trump a top issue, the Liberals led the Conservatives 60% to 21%. When asked which party was best able to deal with Trump and his administration, respondents chose the Liberals by 62% to 18%. Pollsters correctly warn that these relationships do not prove causation. Still, the political alignment is unusually clear: the issue suddenly rising in importance is also one on which the Liberals currently enjoy a large advantage.

The Liberal Advantage Comes With Important Warning Signs

The trade confrontation may be giving Carney political room, but it is hardly a blank cheque. Abacus found that 50% approved of the government’s handling of relations with the United States, including tariffs and trade. Domestic economic issues produced much weaker assessments. On the cost of living and inflation, only 36% approved while 42% disapproved. Housing affordability and supply produced a 32% approval rating against 40% disapproval. Those pressures have not disappeared simply because Washington dominates the headlines.

There are institutional concerns as well. Ipsos found 62% wanted Parliament recalled before its scheduled return in late September to debate Canada’s response to the United States. Meanwhile, Canada’s new counter-tariffs are due to begin September 8, meaning the economic and political effects of retaliation are still developing. For now, Trump’s trade offensive appears to have created an environment favourable to Carney and unusually difficult for Poilievre. Whether that becomes a durable political realignment will depend on what Canadians experience next — especially jobs, prices, investment and whether the confrontation produces leverage rather than prolonged economic pain.

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