‘Poilievre Falls 15 Points Underwater as Liberals Enter By-Elections With Nine-Point Lead’

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Canada’s federal political balance is entering a new test with the governing Liberals holding a clear national advantage and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre still struggling to broaden his personal appeal. A July 27 Liaison Strategies tracker places the Liberals nine points ahead of the Conservatives, just as three federal by-elections begin in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia.

The same poll shows Poilievre 15 points “underwater”—a measure of the gap between favourable and unfavourable views, not a 15-point weekly collapse. The numbers give Prime Minister Mark Carney’s party a favourable opening position, but by-elections are shaped by local candidates, turnout and riding history. One contest is a genuine three-way battleground, while the other two begin with substantial Liberal advantages inherited from the 2025 election.

The Liberals Rebuild a Nine-Point National Advantage

The latest Liaison tracker puts the Liberals at 44 per cent among decided and leaning voters, compared with 35 per cent for the Conservatives. The NDP stands at 11 per cent, the Bloc Québécois at five per cent, the Greens at two per cent, and the People’s Party and other parties at one per cent each. Among all respondents, including those who had not settled on a choice, the Liberals were at 38 per cent and the Conservatives at 31 per cent, while 14 per cent remained undecided. That distinction matters because headline vote shares normally exclude undecided voters, creating a clearer picture of the choices being made by people currently prepared to support a party.

The lead increased by one point from the previous Liaison tracker, with Liberal support rising while Conservative support remained unchanged. That makes the result more a story of stability than sudden movement. The Conservatives are still competitive nationally, but they remain lodged in the mid-30s while the Liberals have returned to the mid-40s. For campaign organizers, a nine-point national gap offers the governing party confidence and resources. It does not, however, guarantee victory in any individual riding. The poll was conducted by telephone with 1,526 Canadians from July 12 to July 25 and carries a reported margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Poilievre’s Minus-15 Rating Is a Personal Warning Sign

Poilievre’s favourable rating in the Liaison poll is 36 per cent, while 51 per cent view him unfavourably. Subtracting the second figure from the first produces a net favourability score of minus 15. The phrase “15 points underwater” therefore describes the distance between positive and negative impressions. It does not mean his popularity dropped by 15 points in a single week. His favourable number was unchanged, while the unfavourable figure rose by one point. Eight per cent were unsure and five per cent said they were not familiar enough with him to offer a view.

That arithmetic still represents a meaningful political problem. Poilievre is one of the best-known figures in Canadian politics, leaving fewer undecided voters available for an easy image reset. He performs strongly with committed Conservatives, yet a national election requires support from people who may agree with the party on affordability, housing or crime without feeling comfortable with its leader. By-elections can sharpen that tension. Conservative candidates may try to localize their campaigns, but national leaders often dominate media coverage, fundraising appeals and volunteer enthusiasm. A persistently negative leader rating can therefore become a drag even when the party’s core message remains competitive.

Carney Enters the Campaign With a Larger Personal Cushion

Mark Carney’s position is notably stronger. Liaison recorded 56 per cent approval for the prime minister, compared with 35 per cent disapproval and nine per cent who were unsure. That produces a net approval rating of plus 21. His approval was down one point from the previous week, but the broader picture remained positive. The result gives the Liberals an important advantage: voters who are not enthusiastic about every government decision may still view the prime minister as a credible or steady leader.

Personal approval is not the same as vote intention, but the two can reinforce each other. A popular leader can make it easier for local candidates to campaign under the national banner, especially in short races where many voters have limited exposure to those candidates. Carney also benefits from the fact that these contests come after the Liberals clinched a parliamentary majority by winning three April by-elections, following earlier floor crossings. The August races are therefore less about whether the government can survive and more about whether its coalition remains durable. For Conservatives, defeating a Liberal in one of the governing party’s former seats would puncture that sense of momentum. For Liberals, holding their ground would strengthen the argument that Carney’s support extends beyond one exceptional election cycle.

Three Ridings Create Three Very Different Political Tests

Federal by-elections will be held on August 31 in Beaches–East York, Ontario; Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, Quebec; and North Vancouver–Capilano, British Columbia. Elections Canada also set four advance-voting days from August 21 through August 24, with additional early-voting and mail-ballot options available before specified deadlines. The geography gives the campaign an unusually broad footprint, stretching from Toronto to the Saguenay region and Metro Vancouver. It also prevents either major party from relying on a single regional message.

Each riding asks a different question. Beaches–East York tests whether the Liberals can reproduce a huge urban Toronto margin without the previous incumbent on the ballot. North Vancouver–Capilano examines whether the party can protect an affluent suburban seat where it won comfortably in 2025. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord is the most volatile contest because the Conservatives, Bloc and Liberals all finished within roughly three percentage points of one another last time. A national lead can lift a party’s volunteers and fundraising, but it cannot erase these local differences. The same campaign message that resonates in Toronto may have limited value in Saguenay, while British Columbia voters may be responding to an entirely different mix of housing, affordability, infrastructure and environmental concerns.

Two Liberal Strongholds and One Three-Way Battleground

The 2025 results show why the three races cannot be treated alike. In Beaches–East York, Liberal Nate Erskine-Smith won 67.7 per cent of the vote, defeating the Conservative candidate by 25,974 votes. The Conservatives received 23.5 per cent, while the NDP took 6.9 per cent. Voter turnout was 71.9 per cent. That creates an imposing Liberal baseline, although the absence of a familiar incumbent can change the character of a race. Canadian political-science research has also documented lower average turnout in federal by-elections than in general elections, potentially magnifying the importance of organization and voter motivation.

North Vancouver–Capilano was also decisive. Liberal Jonathan Wilkinson received 59.8 per cent, compared with 33.7 per cent for the Conservative candidate, a margin of 16,568 votes. Turnout reached 71.7 per cent. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord was radically different: Conservative Richard Martel won with 34.1 per cent, the Bloc Québécois followed with 31.2 per cent, and the Liberals were only 37 votes behind the Bloc at 31.1 per cent. Martel’s winning margin over the Bloc was 1,499 votes, and turnout was 68.5 per cent. A small shift in participation or tactical voting could therefore alter the Quebec result, making it the contest most likely to produce a genuine three-party fight.

Regional Polling Favours the Liberals, With an Important Caveat

Liaison’s regional findings provide a favourable backdrop for the Liberals in all three provinces. Among decided and leaning voters, the party led the Conservatives 49 per cent to 38 per cent in Ontario. In Quebec, the Liberals stood at 45 per cent, the Bloc at 23 per cent and the Conservatives at 22 per cent. In British Columbia, the Liberals were at 44 per cent, the Conservatives at 33 per cent and the NDP at 21 per cent. Those numbers help explain why the governing party enters the campaign with confidence.

They are not riding-level forecasts. Provincial samples are smaller than the national sample, and local races can diverge sharply from province-wide sentiment. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord is a particularly clear example. Even if the Liberals lead across Quebec, the riding has a recent Conservative incumbent, a strong Bloc presence and a political identity that does not necessarily mirror Montreal or the province as a whole. Beaches–East York may also give the NDP more room than its Ontario-wide number suggests because of the party’s history in parts of Toronto. Regional polling is best treated as wind direction: it can help or hurt a campaign, but candidate quality, organization and turnout determine how much of that wind reaches the ballot box.

Women and Older Voters Are Driving the Liberal Edge

The demographic breakdown exposes one of the Conservatives’ biggest coalition challenges. Liaison found women supporting the Liberals over the Conservatives by 48 per cent to 30 per cent, an 18-point gap. Among men, the two parties were tied at 41 per cent. Voters aged 65 and older backed the Liberals by 56 per cent to 32 per cent. These groups are especially valuable in by-elections because older voters tend to be reliable participants, while a large gender gap can affect suburban and urban races where neither party can rely solely on its traditional base.

Younger voters offer a more complicated picture. Among those aged 18 to 34, the Liberals stood at 37 per cent, the Conservatives at 28 per cent and the NDP at 22 per cent. That means the Conservatives are not simply losing younger voters to one rival; they are competing in a more fragmented field. Poilievre’s economic message can still resonate with younger Canadians facing high rents and uncertain job prospects, but the party must convert issue agreement into broader personal trust. The Liberal advantage among women and seniors suggests that the Conservative path to growth depends not only on mobilizing supporters, but on reassuring voters who currently view the leader more negatively than the party’s policies.

The NDP Is Weak Nationally but Still Capable of Shaping Outcomes

At 11 per cent nationally, the NDP remains far behind the two largest parties. Yet the same poll shows why it cannot be ignored. The party reached 22 per cent among voters aged 18 to 34 and 21 per cent in British Columbia. NDP Leader Avi Lewis was viewed favourably by 29 per cent and unfavourably by 27 per cent, while a large share of respondents remained unsure or unfamiliar with him. That leaves the party with both a recognition problem and room to grow.

Its influence may be less about winning all three ridings than about determining which larger party benefits from progressive vote movement. In Beaches–East York, the NDP captured only 6.9 per cent in 2025, but the riding sits in a city where the party has organizational roots and could seek to rebuild. In North Vancouver–Capilano, the party began from 4.2 per cent, making a breakthrough more difficult despite stronger province-wide support. In Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, the NDP earned just 1.9 per cent, but even small vote shifts matter in a three-way contest decided by narrow margins. A modest NDP improvement could pull support from the Liberals, while strategic consolidation around another party could reshape the final result.

What the August Results Could Mean for Both Leaders

The August 31 by-elections will not be a national referendum, and the Liberal government already has the majority it secured in April. Still, the results will be read as evidence about direction. A Liberal hold in Beaches–East York and North Vancouver–Capilano would meet expectations. Capturing Chicoutimi–Le Fjord would be more significant because it would convert a recent Conservative seat in a region where three parties are competitive. Losing either Liberal stronghold would be treated as a warning that national polling is masking local dissatisfaction.

For Poilievre, the most valuable outcome would be a defensive win in Quebec combined with a strong Conservative advance in one of the Liberal-held ridings. That would allow him to argue that the party remains competitive despite his negative personal numbers. A sweep by the Liberals would deepen questions about whether the Conservatives can expand beyond their committed base. Carney faces the opposite test: expectations are high because his party leads nationally and he remains personally popular. By-elections can surprise governments precisely because supporters assume victory is secure. The larger lesson is that a nine-point lead is an advantage, not a result. Votes cast locally will decide whether the polling backdrop becomes political momentum.

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