One in Six 2025 Liberal Voters Now Back the NDP as Carney’s Lead Shrinks to Four Points

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Mark Carney’s Liberals remain ahead nationally, but the coalition that carried them to victory in 2025 is showing signs of strain. New Angus Reid Institute polling places the Liberals at 40 per cent, four points ahead of the Conservatives, while the NDP has climbed to 13 per cent.

The most consequential finding lies beneath those national numbers. Fifteen per cent of respondents who reported voting Liberal in 2025 now say they would support the NDP. Many remain broadly satisfied with Carney, but they increasingly differ from loyal Liberal voters on climate change, inequality and the government’s direction. It is not yet a mass revolt, nor evidence that an election result is predetermined. It is, however, an early warning that the broad anti-Conservative coalition assembled during the 2025 campaign may be becoming harder to hold together.

The Liberal Lead Has Fallen From Nine Points to Four

The Angus Reid Institute places the Liberals at 40 per cent among decided and leaning voters, compared with 36 per cent for the Conservatives. The NDP stands at 13 per cent, the Bloc Québécois at seven per cent and the Greens at three per cent. That still leaves Carney’s party in first place, but its cushion has narrowed substantially since February, when the same organization measured Liberal support at 45 per cent and Conservative support at 36 per cent.

The movement has not primarily come from a Conservative surge. Conservative support is essentially unchanged from February in Angus Reid’s tracking. Instead, Liberal support has fallen by five points while the NDP has gained four. That distinction matters politically: Carney is not simply losing centrist voters to Pierre Poilievre. He also appears to be shedding some progressive voters who supported the Liberals as the most effective option during the unusual circumstances of the 2025 campaign. A four-point lead remains meaningful, but it offers far less protection against regional swings, campaign mistakes or declining enthusiasm than the wider advantages recorded earlier in 2026.

Carney’s Winning 2025 Coalition Is Beginning to Fragment

The Liberals won 43.8 per cent of valid votes and 169 of 343 seats in the 2025 federal election. The NDP, by contrast, received only 6.3 per cent and elected seven MPs. That election became unusually concentrated around the two largest parties, with many centre-left voters rallying behind Carney as the candidate they believed was best positioned to manage economic uncertainty and pressure from Donald Trump’s administration.

The new results suggest that some of that strategic consolidation is unwinding. Among respondents who recalled voting Liberal in 2025, 73 per cent would remain with the party, while 15 per cent now choose the NDP and three per cent choose the Greens. In other words, nearly one-fifth have moved toward a party positioned to the Liberals’ left. Those respondents should not be treated as permanently lost: voting intentions between elections are fluid, and recollections of past votes are not perfect. Still, the pattern indicates that Carney’s 2025 support included a significant number of conditional voters rather than lifelong Liberals. Their support may depend on whether the government continues reflecting their policy priorities.

Climate Change Is Separating Loyalists From Defectors

Climate change and the environment were selected as a leading national concern by 21 per cent of respondents, up from 14 per cent in March and 17 per cent in June. Cost-of-living pressures remain far more prominent, chosen by 60 per cent, while health care stands at 38 per cent. Yet climate’s rapid return to the political agenda creates a particular challenge for a Liberal government seeking to balance emissions policy, energy development, economic growth and regional demands.

The divide is especially pronounced within the Liberal coalition. Half of the reported 2025 Liberal voters now supporting the NDP identify climate change as a top issue. Among those remaining with the Liberals, the figure is 27 per cent. Income inequality and poverty show an even wider proportional gap, concerning 34 per cent of Liberal-to-NDP switchers but only 10 per cent of Liberal loyalists. These voters are not necessarily abandoning Carney because of one announcement. Their movement appears connected to a broader feeling that the government’s priorities are becoming less progressive than expected. For the NDP, climate policy offers an opening to reconnect environmental concerns with household affordability, jobs and economic inequality.

Many Switchers Do Not Completely Disapprove of Carney

The movement toward the NDP should not be mistaken for universal hostility toward the prime minister. Fifty-seven per cent of former Liberal voters now choosing the NDP still approve of Carney’s performance. At the same time, 31 per cent disapprove, compared with just two per cent among respondents who voted Liberal in 2025 and intend to do so again. That combination points to a softer and potentially recoverable form of dissatisfaction.

Some switchers may respect Carney’s competence or handling of international affairs while wanting stronger action on domestic priorities. A voter can approve of the prime minister overall but prefer the NDP on climate policy, inequality, housing or public services. This creates a complicated strategic decision for the Liberals. Moving sharply left could reassure progressive voters but risk weakening Carney’s appeal among moderates. Remaining firmly in the centre could preserve his broader governing image while allowing the NDP to consolidate dissatisfied voters. The government’s challenge is therefore not merely improving Carney’s personal rating. It must persuade sympathetic former supporters that his agenda still addresses the issues that initially brought them into the Liberal coalition.

Carney’s Approval Has Slipped Across Key Age Groups

Carney’s overall approval rating stands at 51 per cent, while 42 per cent disapprove. His net approval of nine points remains positive, but it has fallen from the stronger position he occupied earlier in 2026. Angus Reid measured his approval at 60 per cent in February, meaning the prime minister has lost nine points from that high as the initial enthusiasm surrounding his government has moderated.

The age breakdown contains some of the clearest warning signs. Carney’s net approval is negative six among Canadians aged 35 to 44 and only positive one among those aged 18 to 24. By comparison, it is positive 22 among people aged 65 and older. These numbers resemble a broader pattern found by other pollsters: Liberal strength is increasingly concentrated among older Canadians, while younger and working-age voters are more competitive territory. That matters because those groups are often directly exposed to high rents, expensive homeownership, child-care costs and insecure employment. A government can maintain respectable national approval while gradually losing the voters most frustrated by living costs. Unless that frustration eases, the NDP and Conservatives will each have opportunities to attract different parts of the same dissatisfied electorate.

The NDP Is Recovering Before Its Leader Is Fully Defined

The NDP’s rise to 13 per cent represents a notable improvement from both its 2025 election result and its standing earlier in 2026. Yet the recovery is occurring while leader Avi Lewis remains unfamiliar to much of the country. Lewis was elected in March with 56 per cent of the first-ballot leadership vote, but Angus Reid found that only 17 per cent of Canadians view him favourably. Thirty-eight per cent view him unfavourably, while 45 per cent do not yet have an opinion.

Among current NDP supporters, the picture is much stronger: 66 per cent view Lewis favourably. That gives the party an energized foundation but also reveals how much work remains. The NDP currently has only five MPs in the House of Commons and falls below the 12-member threshold required for recognized-party status in parliamentary proceedings. Rebuilding from that position requires more than gaining dissatisfied Liberals in national polling. Lewis must establish credibility outside the existing NDP base, recruit competitive candidates and translate broad concerns about climate and inequality into riding-level support. For now, the party’s improved numbers appear to reflect an opening in the electorate as much as a fully developed endorsement of its new leader.

Ontario and Quebec Continue to Protect the Liberals

The Liberals retain two of their most important electoral advantages: leads in Ontario and Quebec. Angus Reid places them at 42 per cent in Ontario, narrowly ahead of the Conservatives at 39 per cent, with the NDP at 14 per cent. In Quebec, the Liberals stand at 41 per cent, followed by the Bloc Québécois at 27 per cent, the Conservatives at 18 per cent and the NDP at nine per cent.

Those provincial leads help explain why a modest national advantage can still leave the Liberals well positioned. Ontario and Quebec together contain 200 of the House of Commons’ 343 constituencies. However, a three-point Ontario lead leaves little margin for error, particularly in suburban and exurban ridings where small vote movements can change numerous outcomes. The NDP does not need to lead nationally to complicate the Liberal map. It could weaken Liberal candidates by reclaiming progressive voters in selected urban, northern and British Columbia constituencies. Regional subsamples also carry greater uncertainty than national findings, so precise provincial percentages should be interpreted cautiously. Even so, the broad picture is clear: Liberal strength in Ontario and Quebec is holding, but it is no longer untouchable.

A Tighter Race Does Not Automatically Mean a Conservative Breakthrough

The Conservatives benefit whenever progressive voters divide between the Liberals, NDP and Greens. However, Poilievre continues to face a significant personal-image problem. Angus Reid found that 60 per cent of Canadians view the Conservative leader unfavourably, while 33 per cent view him favourably. His unfavourable rating has remained around that level since late 2025, limiting the party’s ability to capitalize fully on declining Liberal enthusiasm.

The result is an unusual political environment. The Liberal lead has narrowed, yet Conservative support in this poll has not increased since February. The NDP is gaining, but it remains far behind the two leading parties and has a severely reduced parliamentary presence. Carney’s ratings have weakened, but a majority still approve of his performance. That creates opportunity for every major party without placing any of them in a dominant position. The Conservatives must convert dissatisfaction with the government into confidence in Poilievre. The NDP must prove its rebound can survive greater attention and scrutiny. The Liberals must reunite voters who backed Carney in 2025 for different reasons. The next decisive movement may depend less on party loyalty than on which issue dominates the national conversation.

One Poll Is a Warning Signal, Not an Election Prediction

The Angus Reid Institute questioned 1,770 Canadian adults online between July 25 and 27, with voting-intention results based on 1,769 decided or leaning voters. The sample was weighted using census-based characteristics. For comparison purposes, the organization says a probability sample of the same size would carry a margin of error of approximately two percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Because respondents came from an online panel, that conventional margin is a reference point rather than a direct measurement of all possible error.

Other recent polling has produced different margins. Abacus Data placed the Liberals at 43 per cent, the Conservatives at 37 per cent and the NDP at nine per cent in research conducted from July 9 to 16. Differences in field dates, panels, weighting and question wording can produce different results without either poll necessarily being wrong. The strongest conclusion is therefore not that the Liberals are guaranteed to lead by exactly four points. It is that their advantage appears less secure than it was earlier in the year, while the NDP has identifiable room to recover among progressive voters. Whether that movement lasts will depend on events, leadership performance and the issues Canadians are considering when an election actually arrives.

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