Liberals Lead Conservatives 44%–33% on Trump Fight — but Millennials Flip 40%–30% Conservative

35,000+ smart investors are already getting financial news, market signals, and macro shifts in the economy that could impact their money next with our FREE weekly newsletter. Get ahead of what the crowd finds out too late. Click Here to Subscribe for FREE.

Canada’s confrontation with Donald Trump is producing a political picture that looks stable from a distance and much more complicated up close. New Ipsos findings put the Liberals at 44% support nationally, comfortably ahead of the Conservatives at 33%, as Prime Minister Mark Carney takes a confrontational approach to escalating U.S. tariffs and stalled trade negotiations.

But that national advantage conceals a striking generational divide. Among Millennials, the order reverses: Conservatives lead 40% to 30%. The numbers tell two related but distinct stories. The 44%–33% result measures federal vote intention rather than directly asking which party is better at handling Trump. Separate questions, however, show broad backing for Canada’s tougher trade response. Together, the findings suggest Carney is benefiting from a national desire to push back against Washington while younger Canadians remain much harder for the Liberals to hold.

The Liberal Lead Has Barely Moved Despite a Political Shock

For all the drama surrounding the Canada-U.S. relationship, federal voting intentions have been remarkably stable. Ipsos puts Liberal support at 44%, down only one percentage point from April, while Conservative support remains unchanged at 33%. The NDP sits at 10% and the Bloc Québécois at 8% nationally, both one point higher than in April. That leaves the governing Liberals with an 11-point advantage over their main opponent.

The stability is notable because the underlying political environment has changed dramatically. U.S.-Canada negotiations collapsed, Washington imposed new tariffs and Ottawa committed to retaliation, yet the national party standings barely shifted. The contrast with the 2025 federal election is also significant. Elections Canada recorded 43.8% of valid votes for the Liberals and 41.3% for the Conservatives, a gap of only 2.5 percentage points. The current Ipsos snapshot therefore shows a considerably wider national separation than Canadians produced at the ballot box last year.

Millennials Reverse the National Result

The most eye-catching number is buried beneath the national topline. While the Liberals lead the country overall, Millennials favour the Conservatives by 40% to 30%. Instead of merely narrowing the Liberal advantage, this group reverses it, creating a 10-point Conservative lead within a generation whose economic circumstances differ sharply from those of many older voters.

That distinction also appears in attitudes toward the trade confrontation itself. Ipsos found 63% of Canadians believed Canada was right to stand firm in negotiations even if doing so produced higher costs and job losses. Support among Millennials was lower at 57%, while only 48% of Gen Z adults took that position. Among boomers, support was roughly 80%. The millennial vote numbers should not automatically be interpreted as a direct consequence of trade policy, but they show that the political coalition supporting a harder line against Trump is far less uniform across age groups than the national numbers initially suggest.

Affordability Gives the Age Gap an Economic Backdrop

The generational split arrives against a measurable affordability divide. Statistics Canada reported in May that, after adjusting for young adults living with their parents, 49.9% of Millennials aged 25 to 39 were homeowners in 2021. Comparable rates were 56.2% for Gen Xers and 55.9% for baby boomers when those generations were the same age. Among Millennials, 16.3% were also living in a census family with at least one parent, almost twice the 8.2% recorded for boomers of comparable age in 1991.

Current prices add another layer. Canada’s Consumer Price Index was up 3.0% year over year in July 2026, with grocery prices rising 3.1% and transportation costs 7.8%. Ipsos chairman Darrell Bricker described economically pressured younger Canadians as living in an “endurance economy.” Those statistics do not prove affordability caused the Conservative advantage among Millennials, but they help explain why political demands involving higher prices, employment risks or prolonged economic sacrifice may land differently across generations.

Standing Up to Trump Still Commands Broad Support

Carney’s political strength is closely tied to the public appetite for resistance. Ipsos found 63% believed Canada had been right to stand firm during negotiations despite the prospect of higher costs and lost jobs, compared with 18% who thought Ottawa should have made additional sacrifices to secure a deal. Support became even stronger when respondents were asked about matching American tariffs, with 73% backing dollar-for-dollar retaliation.

That position now has concrete economic consequences. The federal government says the United States imposed 50% tariffs affecting $27.6 billion of Canadian goods beginning August 22. Ottawa has announced matching countermeasures covering $27.6 billion of U.S. imports, with tariffs of 15%, 25% and 50% scheduled to take effect September 8. Products targeted include steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics. The political debate is therefore moving beyond rhetoric: households and businesses are increasingly being asked to judge the costs of an actual retaliation strategy.

Canadians Support Retaliation More Than Personal Sacrifice

One of the most important distinctions in the findings is between supporting national retaliation in principle and accepting its personal consequences. Although 73% backed dollar-for-dollar tariffs, only 52% said they were personally willing to endure “significant” economic pain to help Canada through the confrontation. Among Gen Z adults the figure dropped to 41%, while it reached 67% among boomers.

That gap helps explain why support for government protection is so extensive. Sixty-seven per cent favoured a major subsidy program resembling measures used during the COVID-19 period to protect workers affected by tariffs. Between roughly two-thirds and 80% supported options including retraining, assistance for companies finding non-U.S. customers, loans, emergency relief, extended Employment Insurance and business incentives. Ottawa, meanwhile, has announced a $7.5-billion package of new and enhanced assistance. Canadians appear prepared to resist Washington, but many also expect governments to spread the financial burden rather than leaving exposed workers and businesses to absorb it alone.

“Buy Canadian” Has Become More Than a Slogan

Economic nationalism is another area where the government enjoys substantial room to manoeuvre. Ipsos found 80% supported public purchasing and infrastructure policies that prioritize Canadian materials and contracts. A smaller but still clear majority of 60% said they personally intended to favour Canadian products, services and companies. Other retaliatory ideas also received significant support, including tariffs or export restrictions involving energy and critical minerals.

Ottawa had already been building this approach before the latest escalation. The federal Buy Canadian policy took effect in December 2025, and the government reported this spring that it had been applied to solicitations valued at approximately $3.6 billion by mid-April. The federal government purchases roughly $37 billion in goods and services annually, giving procurement policy meaningful economic weight. Politically, that allows the Liberals to connect the Trump dispute with a broader message about domestic industry, supply chains and economic independence rather than presenting tariffs simply as punishment directed at the United States.

Conservatives Still Have an Opening on the Trade File

The Liberal advantage does not mean Canadians have given Carney an uncontested mandate on every aspect of the U.S. confrontation. When Ipsos asked whether Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives would have done a better job handling trade issues with the United States, 37% said they would. Among Conservative voters, that figure climbed to 67%. The finding shows the opposition retains a substantial constituency that believes a different strategy could have produced better results.

For Conservatives, the Millennial numbers make that opening especially important. A 40%–30% advantage among Millennials creates an opportunity to connect trade policy with affordability, employment and the cost of retaliation rather than simply challenging the principle of standing up to Washington. Yet the national numbers demonstrate the difficulty of that strategy. With 63% supporting Canada’s refusal to make further concessions and 73% supporting matching tariffs, opposition to retaliation alone would put Conservatives against a sizeable majority. Their stronger argument may therefore be about execution, economic protection and the eventual path back to negotiations.

Canadians Want Parliament Involved Too

Support for a tough response does not translate into support for leaving every decision to the executive branch. Ipsos found 62% wanted Parliament recalled before its scheduled return in late September so MPs could debate and vote on Canada’s response to the United States. That finding introduces an institutional dimension that can easily be missed when the dispute is framed primarily around Carney and Trump.

It also creates a potential pressure point for the government. Canadians can simultaneously approve of counter-tariffs and expect greater parliamentary scrutiny over how those measures are designed, expanded or withdrawn. With billions of dollars in trade affected and billions more committed to worker and business assistance, demands for debate are hardly symbolic. The result suggests the public mood is not simply “elbows up” at any cost. A significant majority appears to want resistance combined with democratic oversight, giving opposition parties an opportunity to scrutinize details without necessarily rejecting the broader objective of defending Canadian interests.

The Generational Divide Could Matter More at the Next Ballot Box

The 40%–30% Conservative advantage among Millennials is politically important, but translating demographic support into election results depends on turnout as well as preference. Elections Canada found participation in the 2025 election rose steadily through most age groups: turnout was 59.6% among voters aged 25 to 34, 65.4% among those 35 to 44 and 77.6% among those aged 65 to 74. Older voters therefore continued to exercise disproportionate electoral influence.

There is another reason for caution. Ipsos interviewed 1,001 Canadian adults online on August 26 and 27 and reports a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for the overall sample, 19 times out of 20. The interval is wider for demographic subgroups such as Millennials. The precise 40%–30% spread should therefore be treated as a strong signal rather than an immutable forecast. What is harder to dismiss is the larger pattern: Canada currently has a Liberal national advantage alongside a younger electorate that is considerably more skeptical of both the governing party and the economic price of confronting Trump.

This Options Discord Chat is The Real Deal

While the internet is scoured with trading chat rooms, many of which even charge upwards of thousands of dollars to join, this smaller options trading discord chatroom is the real deal and actually providing valuable trade setups, education, and community without the noise and spam of the larger more expensive rooms. With a incredibly low-cost monthly fee, Options Trading Club (click here to see their reviews) requires an application to join ensuring that every member is dedicated and serious about taking their trading to the next level. If you are looking for a change in your trading strategies, then click here to apply for a membership.