Doug Ford’s Approval Falls to Worst Level Since He Took Office

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Doug Ford has survived controversies, policy reversals, labour fights, pandemic anger, and repeated predictions of political trouble. Yet the latest public mood in Ontario points to something more serious than a rough week. His approval has fallen to the weakest level of his premiership, leaving one of Canada’s most durable conservative leaders facing a sharp confidence problem less than two years after winning another majority.

The decline reflects more than one headline. A costly government jet controversy, persistent affordability stress, health-care frustration, and anxiety over Ontario’s economy have combined to create a tougher political climate. Ford still has the advantage of majority power at Queen’s Park, but the gap between winning elections and maintaining public trust now looks wider than it has at any point since he first took office in 2018.

A Personal Low With National Weight

Ford’s approval has dropped to 21 percent, the lowest level recorded for him since he became Ontario premier. That figure is not just a modest dip or a routine midterm slump. It places him at the bottom of the current premier approval rankings and marks a sharp turn for a politician who has often relied on a plainspoken, retail-style connection with voters. The same data shows 45 percent of Ontarians strongly disapprove of his performance, while only 4 percent strongly approve.

The timing matters because Ford has built his brand around being a practical problem-solver rather than an ideological figure. For years, that allowed him to survive storms that might have overwhelmed other leaders. But low approval can change how every decision is received. A spending announcement can sound defensive. A policy reversal can look panicked. Even a familiar slogan can start to feel worn out when households are still dealing with high costs, strained services, and a sense that government is not moving fast enough.

The Jet That Turned Anger Into a Symbol

The government’s brief plan to buy a used Bombardier Challenger 650 became one of the clearest symbols of Ford’s current trouble. The aircraft was purchased for $28.9 million and then sold back after public backlash, with Ford later acknowledging the timing was wrong. The controversy landed badly because it was simple, expensive, and easy for critics to explain. At a time when many families are watching grocery bills, rent, mortgages, and car payments closely, a government jet sounded detached from daily life.

The damage was not only about the plane itself. Documents later showed additional costs tied to the attempted purchase, including professional, management, and legal expenses. For voters already frustrated by affordability and public services, those details reinforced a broader question: whether Queen’s Park understands the pressure ordinary households are under. Political mistakes often become dangerous when they confirm an existing suspicion. In this case, the jet controversy gave Ford’s opponents a vivid example to attach to concerns about judgment, priorities, and tone.

Majority Power No Longer Guarantees Personal Trust

Ford’s political strength has always been bigger than his personal approval numbers. He first won a majority government in 2018, then went on to secure repeated victories for the Progressive Conservatives. In 2025, the party won another majority, benefiting from a divided opposition and a first-past-the-post system that can turn concentrated support into a large seat count. That electoral record remains important. It means Ford still has the legislative power to govern, pass budgets, and set Ontario’s agenda.

But the approval collapse shows that election victories and personal popularity are not the same thing. Low turnout in the 2025 election also complicates the picture, because a majority at Queen’s Park does not automatically mean broad public enthusiasm. Many Ontarians may have voted strategically, stayed home, or lacked confidence in the alternatives. That matters now because a premier with majority control can still face a legitimacy problem if voters feel disconnected from the government between elections. Ford is not in immediate danger of losing power, but he is clearly losing the benefit of the doubt.

Affordability Is Still the Daily Test

Affordability remains one of the most punishing issues for the Ontario government because it is felt every week, not just during election campaigns. Polling earlier this year showed overwhelming numbers of Ontarians giving the province poor marks on cost of living and housing affordability. Those are not abstract concerns. They show up in rent renewals, mortgage stress, grocery receipts, insurance premiums, and the quiet decisions families make about what to delay or cut. Even people with steady jobs can feel as though they are falling behind.

Ford’s challenge is that affordability anger rarely has one target, but provincial governments still absorb much of the blame. Housing supply, taxes, development charges, energy costs, wages, interest rates, and federal policy all overlap. That complexity may be true, but it does not soften public frustration. When voters feel squeezed, they tend to judge leaders by visible relief rather than explanations. The Ford government has tried to frame itself as pro-growth and pro-worker, but the latest approval numbers suggest many Ontarians are not connecting that message to their own household reality.

Health Care Keeps Pulling the Numbers Down

Health care remains another major drag on the government’s standing. Ontario doctors have warned that more than 2.5 million people in the province do not have access to a family physician, while a large share of family doctors are considering retirement or planning to retire in the coming years. That creates a daily access problem that is easy to understand. When people cannot find a doctor, wait too long for appointments, or rely on walk-in clinics and emergency rooms, frustration becomes personal very quickly.

Emergency department data has also shown how strained the system can feel for patients, especially those admitted to hospital. Even when governments increase spending, voters often judge health care by their own experience: how long a loved one waited, whether a test was delayed, or whether a family doctor was available. Ontario’s budget projects health spending will keep rising in the years ahead, partly because of aging and demand. But higher spending alone rarely improves public approval unless people can see faster access, more capacity, and fewer bottlenecks.

Economic Pressure Limits the Government’s Room

Ford is also governing in a more difficult economic environment. Ontario’s budget projects deficits before a planned return to surplus, leaving less room for major new spending without creating fresh fiscal criticism. At the same time, U.S. trade pressure and tariff risks have placed added stress on Ontario’s manufacturing-heavy economy. Independent analysis has warned that tariffs could slow provincial growth, reduce manufacturing output, and leave Ontario with fewer jobs than it would otherwise have had.

That is politically dangerous territory for a premier who often presents himself as a defender of workers, builders, automakers, and small businesses. Manufacturing towns in southwestern Ontario, the GTHA, and the auto corridor are especially sensitive to trade shocks. Ford may gain some credit when he pushes back against U.S. pressure, but voters also judge outcomes. If jobs feel less secure, investment slows, or public finances tighten, economic uncertainty can deepen dissatisfaction. In that environment, every controversial expense becomes harder to defend and every affordability promise faces a tougher test.

The Political Map Is Tightening Faster Than Expected

Recent provincial polling has shown the Progressive Conservatives facing a much more competitive landscape than their seat count suggests. Some polls have put the Liberals within striking distance or even slightly ahead in popular support, while others show the PCs still narrowly leading but well below their previous dominance. The opposition remains fragmented, but the trend is still significant. A government that looked electorally secure after the last campaign now appears far more vulnerable in public opinion.

This does not mean Ford is finished. Ontario politics can shift quickly, and opposition parties still need organization, leadership strength, candidate recruitment, and a clear governing offer. But the warning signs are now difficult to dismiss. Ford’s approval has fallen because multiple frustrations are converging at once: affordability, health care, economic anxiety, and questions of judgment. The path back is not complicated in theory, but it is difficult in practice. The government must show discipline, deliver practical improvements, and convince voters that it understands the pressure they are living with.

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