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A Conservative seat that once looked firmly anchored in Quebec’s Saguenay region has become the most closely watched contest in Monday’s three federal byelections. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord elected Conservative Richard Martel four consecutive times, but his departure for the Senate has removed a popular incumbent just as the political climate in Quebec is being reshaped by the escalating confrontation with U.S. President Donald Trump.
The August 31 vote comes after Canada walked away from difficult trade negotiations with Washington and prepared retaliatory tariffs. In Quebec, where Trump remains deeply unpopular and industries exposed to U.S. trade are especially important, that confrontation has created an unusually complicated test for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. Recent riding polls suggest the party could lose much more than Martel’s personal advantage.
The Four-Election Conservative Streak Was Becoming Much Less Secure
Conservatives Risk Losing a Four-Election Quebec Stronghold as Trump Fight Hangs Over Monday Byelections
Richard Martel’s record explains why Chicoutimi–Le Fjord has been viewed as a Conservative foothold in a province where the party has often struggled to expand. The former junior-hockey coach captured the riding in a 2018 byelection with 52.8% of the vote, defeating the Liberal candidate by more than 5,500 votes. His next victory was dramatically tighter: in the 2019 general election, Martel received 36.8%, compared with 34.9% for the Bloc Québécois. He strengthened his position in 2021, winning 41.0% against the Bloc’s 33.4%. By 2025, however, the race had become a genuine three-way contest. Martel won only 34.1%, while the Bloc took 31.2% and the Liberals 31.1%. Fewer than 1,600 votes separated first place from third. What looked like a four-election Conservative stronghold was therefore already showing substantial competitive pressure before Martel left.
That distinction matters because Monday will test how much of the Conservative advantage belonged to the party and how much belonged to Martel himself. Prime Minister Mark Carney announced Martel’s appointment to the Senate in July as part of a broader change to the appointment process, creating the vacancy now being contested. The Conservatives selected lawyer and professor Régis Gaudreault, who has emphasized regional industries, affordability and economic development. The Liberals recruited Daniel Gobeil, a dairy farmer and former president of Les Producteurs de lait du Québec, giving them a candidate with direct ties to an industry sitting at the centre of Canada–U.S. trade disputes. Caroline Dubé is carrying the Bloc Québécois banner. Elections Canada also lists NDP, Green and People’s Party candidates, making six names on the ballot. Martel’s absence has effectively reset a race that he had personally dominated for eight years.
Trump Has Turned a Regional Economic Issue Into a Political Test
The Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean economy makes the Canada–U.S. confrontation unusually tangible in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord. Aluminum, forestry and agriculture all matter in the region, while dairy farmers have watched Washington repeatedly challenge Canada’s supply-management system. Gaudreault himself has described American tariffs as a threat to local businesses, small employers and workers, illustrating an awkward reality for the Conservatives: opposition to Trump’s trade pressure is not confined to Liberal or Bloc voters. The argument in the riding is therefore less about whether U.S. actions are harmful than about which Canadian party is best positioned to respond. That environment gives the governing Liberals an opportunity to turn what would normally be an economic vulnerability into an argument for continuity and national bargaining strength.
Public opinion helps explain why. An Angus Reid Institute study conducted immediately after Ottawa suspended trade negotiations found 76% of Canadians believed the government was right to walk away rather than accept an unsatisfactory agreement. Support reached 85% in Quebec. Even among people who voted Conservative in the 2025 federal election, 53% supported the decision. A separate Abacus Data study released days later found 71% national support and 79% support in Quebec. Reuters has also reported that Trump is particularly unpopular in the province, with only about 10% of Quebecers holding a favourable opinion of him in recent polling. That does not automatically translate into Liberal votes, but it changes the terrain. Conservative criticism of Carney must compete with a widespread Quebec perception that Ottawa was justified in resisting Washington. For Poilievre, the challenge is opposing the government without appearing weaker in confronting a U.S. president many Quebec voters distrust.
The Liberals and Bloc Are Now Fighting Over the Anti-Trump Advantage
Late-campaign polling suggests the most striking development may not simply be that the Conservatives could lose Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, but that they could fall well behind both principal rivals. A Segma Recherche poll conducted for local station CKAJ and reported by TVA placed Liberal Daniel Gobeil at 40.3% among expressed preferences and Bloc candidate Caroline Dubé at 37.8%. Their 2.5-point difference was inside the poll’s 4.6-point margin of error. Conservative Régis Gaudreault stood at 16.8%, while 13% remained undecided. An earlier poll conducted by Liaison Strategies for Poliwave produced a similar shape: Liberals at 39.9% among decided voters, the Bloc at 35.1% and Conservatives at 15.4%. Riding polls should be treated cautiously, especially during a summer byelection when turnout can be difficult to model, but two separate snapshots showing approximately the same three-way ordering are difficult to dismiss.
The battle between Gobeil and Dubé also reveals why Trump’s influence on Quebec politics is not necessarily a straightforward Liberal advantage. Gobeil can argue that having a government MP gives the region a direct voice inside the administration negotiating with Washington, while his dairy background provides credibility on supply management. Dubé can make almost the opposite case: that Quebec needs representatives whose only responsibility is defending Quebec interests when Ottawa negotiates with the United States. The Bloc has emphasized regional economic development, French-language protection, culture and affordability during the campaign. Meanwhile, Reuters has reported that support for Quebec independence has fallen to around 30% amid anxiety created by Trump’s tariffs and sovereignty threats. That does not eliminate Bloc support—the federal Bloc vote is not equivalent to support for separation—but it creates an unusual political environment in which federalist and nationalist voters can share intense opposition to Trump while disagreeing sharply about who should represent Quebec.
A Conservative Loss Would Matter More Politically Than Mathematically
Chicoutimi–Le Fjord is only one of three federal byelections being held Monday. Voters are also choosing MPs in Beaches–East York in Ontario and North Vancouver–Capilano in British Columbia, both seats previously held by Liberals and generally regarded as much safer territory for Carney’s party. The Quebec contest is different because it offers a genuine opportunity for a seat to change parties. As of the eve of voting, The Canadian Press reported 171 Liberal MPs, 139 Conservatives, 21 Bloc MPs, five New Democrats and one Green, with six vacancies. Three of those vacancies will be filled Monday. The Liberals already retain their majority, so the fate of a single Saguenay seat will not determine whether Carney can govern. Its significance lies instead in what the result says about the opposition and about the durability of political changes created by the Trump confrontation.
That makes the result particularly sensitive for Pierre Poilievre. McGill University political scientist Daniel Béland has argued that a Liberal or Bloc victory—especially if the Conservatives finish a distant third—would strengthen questions about whether Poilievre’s leadership is helping the party in Quebec. There is an important qualification: Martel was a recognizable local figure with a lengthy hockey career and four election victories, meaning his personal vote may have been unusually large. Losing the seat without him would not prove that Conservative support has collapsed across Quebec. Nor are byelections perfect national barometers. Turnout can be low, August voting introduces additional uncertainty, and Quebec is simultaneously entering a provincial election campaign. Still, that is precisely why Chicoutimi–Le Fjord matters. If Conservatives cannot remain competitive in a riding they held through four elections, Monday could expose how quickly a seemingly durable regional stronghold can disappear when a popular incumbent leaves and a powerful external issue reshapes voters’ priorities.
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