Canadians Plan to Spend $64 Less This Christmas as U.S. Trade Tensions Influence Holiday Shopping: Survey

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Christmas shopping is becoming a balancing act between generosity, household bills and the desire to keep money closer to home. Canadians plan to spend an average of C$911 this holiday season, down $64 from $975 in 2025, according to Retail Council of Canada and Leger findings released October 20, 2026. Those figures describe intentions, not purchases already made. Trade tensions with the United States add another consideration to the gift list: not simply how much something costs, but where it comes from. For families weighing presents against everyday expenses, a smaller budget need not mean a less meaningful celebration.

The $64 Drop Does Not Mean Everyone Is Cutting Back

The smaller national average conceals considerable differences between individual shoppers and their plans. In the RCC–Leger findings, 52% expect to spend about the same, while 22% anticipate spending more and another 22% expect to spend less. An average can fall even when most people maintain their budgets: larger reductions among some shoppers can outweigh increases elsewhere. It would therefore be misleading to present the headline as a uniform $64 cut by every Canadian family.

The amount becomes easier to picture at the gift-list level. Spread across eight presents, $64 would mean finding an $8 saving on each—an illustration, not a description of anyone interviewed. Another shopper might remove one extra purchase instead of trimming every gift. These choices would produce similar budget savings but very different shopping baskets. The distinction also matters for retailers: a lower average cannot reveal, by itself, whether customers will buy fewer items, select cheaper alternatives or wait for discounts on their original choices.

Trade Tensions Are Changing Where the Money Goes

The political influence is substantial, but it needs careful definition. In the RCC–Leger findings, 52% say U.S. politics, trade policy or geopolitical instability affects their holiday outlook, down from 58% last year. Within that affected group, 58% report avoiding American brands and 57% directing more support toward local businesses or Canadian-made products. These are overlapping responses from a subgroup, not evidence that 58% of all Canadians are boycotting U.S. products or that shoppers have abandoned every American retailer.

Changing a brand is also different from cancelling a purchase. A person could replace an American-branded present with a Canadian alternative and spend exactly the same amount. Another might reduce spending because of financial uncertainty without changing brands at all. Both decisions fit the broader story, but they have different consequences for retailers. The findings do not isolate how much of the $64 decline was caused by trade tensions. They show that international politics is entering shopping decisions alongside other considerations, not that tariffs alone explain the smaller holiday budget.

Buying Canadian Still Has to Fit the Budget

Separate research from PwC Canada reinforces the interest in domestic products. Its 2026 holiday outlook found that 54% would pay more for a Canadian-made item when competing products had similar appearance, feel and quality, up from 49% last year. It also found that 72% were looking for alternatives to U.S.-made products. These are different questions from those asked by RCC and Leger, so the percentages should not be treated as interchangeable measures of a single boycott.

Willingness to pay extra also has limits that a simple yes-or-no response cannot capture. A shopper might accept a $3 premium on a locally made gift but reject a $30 premium on another item. That hypothetical difference is especially important when an entire holiday budget is under review. A Canadian producer could benefit from stronger interest without having unlimited room to raise prices. The commercial opportunity is therefore more demanding than adding a maple leaf to an advertisement: the product still has to make sense for the recipient and fit the buyer’s available money.

A Canadian Brand and a Canadian-Made Product Are Not Identical

For shoppers trying to support domestic production, the wording on a gift matters. Competition Bureau guidance distinguishes between “Made in Canada” and “Product of Canada” claims for non-food goods. A “Made in Canada” claim generally requires at least 51% of direct production costs to be incurred domestically, the last substantial transformation to occur in Canada, and a statement acknowledging imported content. “Product of Canada” has a higher, 98% direct-cost threshold, alongside the substantial-transformation requirement.

Those distinctions can be useful when comparing clothing, household goods or other presents. A Canadian business can sell imported merchandise; a product assembled here may contain foreign materials. Neither fact automatically makes the purchase unsuitable, but each answers a different question about where the money supports activity. Someone prioritizing a neighbourhood store may make a different choice from someone prioritizing Canadian manufacturing. Clear descriptions allow both shoppers to act on their intentions. A vague patriotic image cannot provide the same information as an accurate statement about production, components and origin.

Everyday Prices Leave Less Room for Holiday Extras

The pressure on Christmas budgets extends beyond the price tags on gifts. Statistics Canada reported annual consumer inflation of 3.1% in September, with gasoline prices 27.8% higher than a year earlier. Excluding gasoline, inflation was 2.2%. These figures describe a broad consumer basket, not the cost of a Christmas shopping list, but they help explain why households can feel squeezed before buying a single present. Fuel, food and other routine expenses compete for the same available income.

Slower inflation in a category would not necessarily bring prices back to earlier levels; it can simply mean they are rising more gradually. That distinction matters around a kitchen table where the question is what remains after essential bills are paid. A family could keep its holiday spending unchanged and still have less purchasing power if the particular goods it wants become more expensive. Conversely, a well-timed discount could soften the impact. Neither outcome can be calculated precisely by applying the national inflation rate to every household’s planned gifts.

Gifts May Be Protected While Other Celebrations Shrink

A smaller holiday budget does not necessarily mean presents absorb the biggest cut. Deloitte Canada’s separate 2026 outlook projects a 5% decline in spending on gifts and gift cards, compared with a 22% drop in entertaining and a 20% reduction in experiences. Its entertaining category includes groceries and alcohol, while experiences include travel, vacations and dining out. These differences suggest that consumers may be looking beyond the gift exchange when deciding how to economize.

Deloitte’s overall planned spending figure is $1,305, down 14% from last year. That number should not be directly compared with RCC and Leger’s $911 as though one estimate disproves the other; the research uses different spending definitions and samples. The useful finding is the pattern within Deloitte’s own results. A household might preserve presents for children while simplifying a dinner, shortening a trip or skipping a restaurant outing. Those are illustrative choices, not promises about what every family will do. They show why retailers, restaurants and travel businesses may experience the same holiday season very differently.

The Search for Deals Starts Before Black Friday

The bargain hunt is beginning well before the traditional late-November rush. Accenture’s Canadian holiday research, reported by Retail Insider on October 8, found that 81% planned to begin shopping before Black Friday and Cyber Monday, compared with 47% in 2025. The Canadian sample included 1,009 respondents. Another 44% planned to shop at mass merchants or membership warehouse clubs. These findings point toward an early, value-focused season, although starting a shopping list is not the same as completing it.

Beginning sooner can create more opportunities to compare prices, but it can also extend the period in which tempting offers appear. A shopper researching a winter coat in October might wait weeks for the right price; another could buy early to spread purchases across several pay periods. Both approaches are compatible with an earlier start. For retailers, the implication is that a single November promotion may not capture the entire decision-making process. Availability, delivery costs and confidence in the final price could matter before the headline discount appears. A sale only reduces the holiday bill when it replaces planned spending rather than creating an additional purchase.

Discount Retailers Show Where Spending Can Move

Dollarama’s latest results provide a real-world example of demand for lower-priced shopping, although they are not Christmas sales figures. For the quarter ended August 2, 2026, the retailer reported a 5.4% increase in comparable-store sales in Canada. The number of transactions rose 3.7%, while the average transaction value increased 1.7%. The company released those results on September 16, well before the main holiday period. Transaction growth measures purchases, not necessarily a matching increase in unique customers.

These figures show that a retailer can grow even when households are watching their budgets. Consumers may redirect purchases toward cheaper outlets rather than stop shopping altogether. However, the results cannot establish that trade tensions caused the increase or predict how much Dollarama will sell at Christmas. Nor does shopping at a Canadian company automatically mean buying Canadian-made goods. The useful lesson is narrower: pressure on household spending can redistribute business between retailers, leaving some better positioned than others without requiring an increase in the overall holiday budget.

Spending Plans Can Change Before the Receipts Arrive

Previous holiday research offers a reminder that an intended budget is not a final bill. In January 2026, NerdWallet reported that Canadians who bought gifts during the 2025 holidays recalled spending an average of $828. Its earlier research had put intended spending at $708—a difference of $120. These were separate survey averages, not a record showing that the same individuals all overspent by that amount. The later figure was also self-reported, rather than an audit of bank transactions.

NerdWallet writer Shannon Terrell offered a personal example: despite setting per-person limits and hunting for deals, she described spending beyond her budget, including buying two air fryers after being drawn to a promotion. Her experience cannot predict this year’s results, but it captures a familiar tension between an attractive offer and the original shopping list. A discount can lower an item’s price while increasing the total bill if it encourages an extra purchase. That is why the $64 reduction remains an intention, not a guaranteed outcome. The final test comes when carefully prepared budgets meet the practical and emotional pressures of gift-giving.

A More Careful Christmas, Not a Cancelled One

The main RCC–Leger findings come from an online poll of 2,500 Canadian adults conducted August 21 to September 4, 2026. It was a non-probability sample, so a conventional polling margin of error does not apply. The timing also matters: respondents described their intentions weeks before the October release and before the final rush of holiday promotions. Their answers offer a snapshot of expectations, not a fixed spending plan that cannot change with prices or circumstances.

The Bank of Canada’s third-quarter consumer report, released October 19, offers a similar picture of caution. Perceptions of financial health improved, but spending intentions weakened as high prices and uncertainty continued to weigh on decisions. Feeling somewhat better about household finances, in other words, does not automatically translate into a bigger Christmas budget. The challenge for businesses is to earn purchases without assuming that either patriotic sentiment or a discount will be enough. For households, the goal can be simpler: preserve the parts of the celebration that matter while keeping its cost manageable after the decorations come down.

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