Canada’s Mood Shifts as Right-Track Confidence Hits Highest Level Since 2017

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For years, Canada’s national mood has been shaped by frustration: high living costs, housing stress, political fatigue, and a sense that global turbulence was landing at the kitchen table. Now, a notable shift is emerging. Fresh public-opinion data shows more Canadians saying the country is moving in the right direction than at any point in roughly nine years.

The change does not mean Canadians suddenly feel carefree. Grocery bills, rent, gas prices, and job insecurity still weigh heavily. But the emotional backdrop appears different. Against a world many see as unstable, Canada is being judged less as perfect and more as comparatively steady. That distinction matters. Public confidence often turns not when every problem is solved, but when people begin to believe the country has a clearer hand on the wheel.

The Right-Track Number Finally Breaks Through

The headline number is simple, but politically meaningful: 47% of Canadians now say the country is headed in the right direction, while 39% say it is on the wrong track. According to Abacus Data, that is the highest “right direction” result it has recorded since 2017. In a country that has spent much of the post-pandemic period wrestling with inflation, housing anxiety, health-system pressure, and political exhaustion, that is a major mood change.

What makes the result stand out is not just that optimism has risen, but that it has moved above pessimism. Canada’s right-track score was 26% in May 2024, meaning the latest reading represents a 21-point rise over two years. For many households, daily life may still feel expensive, but the national lens has shifted. The public mood appears to be moving from anger and fatigue toward cautious confidence.

Canada Looks Better When Compared With the World

The biggest clue in the numbers may be the contrast between how Canadians view their own country and how they view the rest of the world. While 47% say Canada is moving in the right direction, only 13% say the same about the world. Views of the United States are similarly bleak, with just 14% saying America is on the right track and 80% saying it is on the wrong track.

That comparison helps explain why Canadians may be feeling better about Canada without necessarily feeling that life has become easy. Global instability, trade tension, energy-price shocks, war, and political polarization have made “stability” feel more valuable. Canada’s mood is improving partly because the country is being judged against a darker international backdrop. A family filling up the car or renewing a mortgage may still feel pressure, but Canada may now look safer and steadier than many alternatives.

The Mood Shift Is Still Deeply Political

The right-track number is not evenly shared across party lines. Among people who voted Liberal in 2025, 71% say Canada is moving in the right direction. Among Conservative voters, only 24% say the same. That is a huge gap, and it shows that national confidence is also being filtered through partisan identity, leadership preferences, and how people interpret the same economic conditions.

This matters because it means the mood shift is real, but not universal. A Liberal voter may see steadiness, competence, and international credibility. A Conservative voter may see affordability problems, slow housing progress, and a government getting too much credit before results are fully delivered. Canada’s overall mood may be improving, but the country remains politically divided. The next phase will depend on whether optimism spreads beyond the government’s existing support base.

Older Canadians Are Driving Much of the Confidence

Age is one of the clearest divides in the data. Among Canadians aged 60 and older, 57% say the country is headed in the right direction. Among those aged 30 to 44, the number falls to 40%. That difference is important because younger and middle-aged adults are often the groups most exposed to mortgage renewals, rent increases, childcare costs, and career uncertainty.

This creates two very different versions of Canada. Older Canadians may be more likely to own homes, have stable pensions, or view the country through a long-term lens. A 35-year-old renter in Toronto, Vancouver, or Halifax may be more likely to judge the country by whether homeownership feels realistic or whether wages are keeping up. The national mood is improving, but the generational story is more complicated than the topline number suggests.

Regional Optimism Shows a Wider National Coalition

The optimism is not concentrated in only one province. Abacus Data found right-track confidence at 53% in Atlantic Canada, 52% in British Columbia, 48% in Quebec, 47% in Ontario, 45% in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and 41% in Alberta. That spread suggests the improved mood has some national breadth, even though Alberta remains more skeptical than several other regions.

Those regional numbers matter because Canada’s politics often turn on whether confidence feels shared or isolated. Atlantic Canada and British Columbia appear especially positive, while Ontario and Quebec sit close to the national average. Alberta’s lower number reflects a different political and economic environment, including long-running tension over energy policy and federal decision-making. The result is a country that is feeling more confident overall, but still contains strong regional fault lines.

Carney’s Approval Is Now Part of the Story

The improvement in Canada’s mood is closely tied to the federal government’s standing. Abacus Data reported that 59% approve of the federal government led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, while 27% disapprove. The firm said that is the highest approval level it has recorded for a federal government in its tracking, surpassing a previous high of 57% recorded during the Trudeau years in 2016.

Carney’s personal numbers are also strong. Abacus reported that 56% of Canadians have a positive impression of him, compared with 26% who have a negative impression. That gives him a net favourability score of +30. In practical terms, the public appears to be rewarding perceived steadiness. Canadians may not believe Ottawa has solved affordability or trade uncertainty, but many seem willing to give the current government credit for projecting competence during a volatile moment.

Affordability Has Not Disappeared From Daily Life

The optimism does not erase the cost-of-living squeeze. Statistics Canada reported that the Consumer Price Index rose 2.8% year over year in April 2026, up from 2.4% in March. Energy prices were a major driver, with gasoline up sharply year over year and transportation prices rising 7.6%. Food purchased from stores was also up 3.8%, keeping pressure on household budgets.

That is why the right-track number should be read carefully. Canadians may feel better about the country’s direction, but not necessarily comfortable at the checkout. Rent is another reminder of the long-term strain: national rent prices rose more slowly in April than in March, but Statistics Canada reported they were still up 30.8% from April 2021 to April 2026. The mood has improved, but affordability remains the issue most likely to test it.

Jobs Data Adds a Cautionary Note

The labour market adds another layer of caution. Statistics Canada reported that employment was little changed in April 2026, while the unemployment rate rose to 6.9%. Youth unemployment rose to 14.3%, meaning younger workers continue to face a tougher job market than the national average. That matters because optimism can fade quickly if more households begin to feel insecure about income.

At the same time, wage growth provides a partial counterweight. Average hourly wages were up 4.5% year over year in April, though Statistics Canada noted that compositional factors influenced the number. For workers who are employed and seeing pay increases, the economy may feel more manageable. For people looking for work, especially younger Canadians, the national confidence story may feel disconnected from personal reality.

Interest Rates and Inflation Are Shaping the Relief

Part of the improved mood may come from a sense that the most chaotic phase of inflation and rate hikes is over. The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% on April 29, 2026. That does not make borrowing cheap, but it gives households and businesses more predictability than they had during the sharp rate-hiking period.

The Bank of Canada also pointed to two major sources of uncertainty: the conflict in the Middle East and U.S. trade policy. Those forces are exactly the kind of external pressures that can make Canadians anxious while also increasing demand for steady domestic leadership. The result is a mixed emotional economy. People may still worry about gas prices, trade disruption, and mortgage costs, but a stable rate environment can make the future feel slightly less chaotic.

The Liberal Lead Reflects the Mood Shift

The improved national mood is showing up in vote intention. Abacus Data found the Liberals at 47% among committed voters, compared with 35% for the Conservatives. Among those certain to vote, the Liberals rose to 48%, while the Conservatives remained at 35%. The Liberals also led in Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, and Atlantic Canada, while Conservatives led in Alberta and Saskatchewan/Manitoba.

That does not mean the political story is settled. Opposition parties can regain ground quickly if affordability worsens, if unemployment rises, or if the government stumbles on trade or energy files. But the current numbers suggest the Liberals are benefiting from a broader emotional shift. When people feel the country is moving in the right direction, incumbents often gain room to govern. Right now, the mood is giving Carney political capital.

The Bigger Test Is Whether This Confidence Lasts

The central question is durability. Public moods can change fast, especially when optimism is built during uncertain times. If gas prices climb again, if U.S. trade tensions escalate, or if job losses mount, today’s confidence could soften. A right-track number is a snapshot, not a guarantee. It captures how Canadians feel at one moment, not how they will feel six months from now.

Still, the shift is significant because it suggests Canadians are no longer judging the country only through frustration. Many appear to see Canada as imperfect but relatively stable, pressured but still capable, and better positioned than much of the world. That is a meaningful psychological turn. The country’s challenges remain real, but the public mood has moved from “everything is broken” toward “maybe this can be managed.” In politics, that is a powerful change.

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