Canada’s Foreign Minister Sees Opening to End Trump’s Tariffs After U.S. Election Defeat, Warns Canadian Jobs Are Being Lost

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For workers in Canada’s steel mills, auto plants and wood-products factories, a trade dispute is measured less in diplomatic statements than in lost shifts and uncertain paycheques.

Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand says the defeat of President Donald Trump’s Republicans in the November 3 U.S. midterm elections could give Ottawa an opening to challenge tariffs that are hurting Canadian industries and jobs.

Democrats won both chambers of Congress, raising hopes that American politicians will face stronger pressure to reconsider the trade war.

But political momentum is not the same as a signed agreement. Canada must now turn a change in Washington’s mood into tangible relief for manufacturers and communities already feeling the strain.

The Election Reopens a Door for Ottawa

In a November 10 interview with Bloomberg Television, Anand said Canada hoped to make progress on trade after American voters dealt the president’s party a significant electoral setback. The foreign minister pointed specifically to lumber, steel, aluminum and automobiles, industries where duties have complicated longstanding cross-border relationships. Her remarks came as she attended the G7 foreign ministers’ gathering in Paris, adding a diplomatic backdrop to a message principally aimed at Canada’s largest trading partner. The optimism was carefully framed: a better opportunity to negotiate, not an announcement that Washington had agreed to remove any tariffs.

The November 3 vote gave Democrats control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, but the new Congress will not take office until January 3, 2027. That distinction matters for Canadian companies hoping for quick answers. Trump’s administration still sets the immediate course of trade negotiations, and legislation is unlikely to erase the duties overnight. Nevertheless, the election has changed the political calculations. Tariffs that once looked like a defining presidential policy now face more prominent opponents in the very country imposing them.

The Jobs Warning Has an Economic Foundation

Canada’s employment figures help explain why Anand is pressing the issue. Statistics Canada’s October labour report, released November 6, showed unemployment at 6.7 per cent and a slight national employment decline of 4,700 positions. That followed losses of 68,000 jobs in September and 42,000 in August. Private-sector payroll employment fell by 53,000 in October, even as public-sector employment increased. For people in communities dependent on an individual plant or sawmill, the national figures can seem abstract; what matters is whether a familiar workplace is adding a shift, cancelling one or hiring at all.

The Parliamentary Budget Officer offered a clearer picture of the potential trade-specific damage in an October 20 assessment. Its modelling suggested that permanent tariffs could leave Canada with as many as 185,000 fewer jobs than in a no-tariff baseline, while real GDP would be 1.4 per cent lower after five years. Those are projections, not 185,000 confirmed layoffs. The broader labour-market decline also cannot be attributed entirely to tariffs. Still, the independent analysis shows why Ottawa sees a prolonged trade confrontation as a threat to future hiring, investment and household security.

Steel Communities Are Already Feeling the Squeeze

Steel provides one of the clearest examples of the tariff dispute’s effects. The Bank of Canada reported in April that most Canadian steel exports to the United States faced a 50 per cent tariff and that export volumes had fallen by roughly half. Canadian production and employment also declined, although domestic purchasing policies and other measures helped soften the blow. For a steelmaker, losing access to a nearby American customer is difficult to offset quickly. Furnaces, finishing lines and transport networks were built around reliable orders, not the sudden need to find buyers across an ocean.

In September, Cleveland-Cliffs announced it would idle finishing operations at Stelco’s Hamilton facility, with up to 500 employees affected. The company said it would concentrate production at its Nanticoke works and offer positions there to Hamilton employees. That is different from saying every affected worker has permanently lost a job, but the uncertainty remains considerable. A transfer may preserve employment while disrupting commuting arrangements, family routines or a worker’s connection to a workplace built over decades. For Ottawa, such decisions demonstrate why a tariff can carry costs far beyond the price of a shipment.

Aluminum Exporters Have Adapted, but Not for Free

Canada’s aluminum producers have shown that adjusting to tariffs is possible, though seldom painless. Jean Simard, head of the Aluminum Association of Canada, said the country produces about 3.3 million tonnes of aluminum annually and exports roughly 90 per cent of it. The United States historically bought most of that output. With American duties reaching 50 per cent, producers have redirected more shipments toward European customers. Simard welcomed the possibility of political change after the U.S. election, arguing that mounting American dissatisfaction could create an opportunity for tariff relief.

The Bank of Canada found that aluminum exports to the United States had plunged by half by July 2025 compared with 2024 levels, before recovering part of that decline. Selling more metal to Europe helped producers keep facilities operating, but the central bank noted that those sales generally brought lower profit margins. Industry representatives said major primary producers had avoided broad layoffs, an important distinction from conditions at some downstream manufacturers using aluminum as an input. For those smaller businesses, higher costs and a weaker competitive position remain significant problems. Adaptation has protected some jobs, but it has not restored the economics of an integrated North American market.

Lumber and Cabinet Makers Cannot Wait for a Political Fix

Canada’s forestry sector entered the current confrontation with a long history of U.S. trade disputes. New duties have added pressure to that older problem. According to the Bank of Canada, Canadian lumber exports in February 2026 were around 20 per cent below their average level in 2024, while employment in the industry was declining alongside production. Reduced American demand, operating costs and longstanding trade barriers all shape that outcome. A smaller mill does not suddenly find a European customer simply because a U.S. buyer can no longer afford the same shipment.

The strain extends beyond sawmills. Reuters reported that Quebec-based kitchen-cabinet manufacturer Cabico, which once shipped about 90 per cent of its products to the United States, had seen U.S. shipment volumes fall by a quarter from 2024 levels. The company laid off more than a quarter of its roughly 700 employees. Makers of certain cabinets are also confronting a planned U.S. tariff increase from 25 to 50 per cent on January 1, 2027. Those prospective duties are not yet in effect, but the possibility already complicates pricing and investment. For affected workers, waiting until Washington’s next political chapter carries a real cost.

Auto Plants Reveal the Fragility of Cross-Border Production

Automotive manufacturing offers perhaps the most visible reminder that Canadian and American production are tightly linked. Vehicle components routinely cross the border during assembly, and U.S. tariffs have made those movements more expensive and complicated. The Bank of Canada reported that qualifying vehicles under CUSMA could face a 25 per cent duty on their non-U.S. content. The precise treatment varies by product and compliance, which is why a blanket claim that every Canadian-made vehicle faces the same tariff would be misleading. Manufacturers must weigh those rules against demand, exchange rates and the cost of changing their factory plans.

On November 9, Stellantis confirmed an agreement to sell its idled Brampton assembly plant to Canadian defence manufacturer Roshel, after previously shifting planned Jeep Compass production to Illinois. More than 2,000 Brampton workers had been laid off when the plant stopped operations in 2023, before the latest tariff escalation; the company has described potential opportunities for some workers under the new owner. Meanwhile, production at Stellantis’s Windsor Assembly Plant was cancelled for four consecutive weeks through November 9, with the company citing both consumer demand and tariffs. Windsor employs roughly 6,400 people, but a temporary shutdown is not equivalent to 6,400 permanent job losses.

Trade Figures Show an Economy Moving at Two Speeds

Canadian export data offer a useful warning against reading the trade dispute through any single headline number. Statistics Canada reported that merchandise exports rose a modest 0.2 per cent in September to approximately $78.6 billion. Energy and precious metals accounted for the improvement; exports across eight of the eleven major product categories actually declined. Motor vehicles and parts fell 4.9 per cent, while forestry products and building and packaging materials dropped 9.8 per cent. It is possible, in other words, for total exports to edge higher while the manufacturers at the centre of the tariff dispute experience another difficult month.

The United States still received about 70 per cent of Canadian merchandise exports in September, illustrating the scale of the economic relationship Ottawa is trying to stabilize. Shipments to American customers rose 0.7 per cent that month, helped by crude oil and gold, while exports to other countries declined 1.1 per cent. Those numbers do not prove that a particular drop was caused by a particular tariff; commodity prices, demand and production changes also matter. They do show why trade diversification cannot replace the American market overnight, especially for factories located a short drive from the border.

American Voters May Be More Open to Tariff Relief

The strongest reason for Canada’s cautious optimism may be the shift in American public opinion. A Reuters/Ipsos poll published November 10 found that 62 per cent of U.S. adults supported efforts to repeal import tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. The poll surveyed 1,705 adults and carried a margin of error of approximately two percentage points. Cost-of-living pressures were a central concern: roughly nine in ten respondents said affordability should be a priority for the incoming Congress. Tariffs are collected on imports by U.S. authorities, and their costs can be absorbed by companies or passed along to American purchasers.

The election also gives the issue a clearer path into congressional debate. Democratic Senator Ron Wyden, expected to lead the Senate Finance Committee after the new Congress is seated, has been reported as prioritizing action on tariffs affecting Canada. Yet legislative opposition is not the same as a repeal. Trump could veto a bill eliminating the duties, and reversing that veto would require a two-thirds vote in each chamber. Ottawa therefore has reason to welcome the pressure without building its trade strategy around a guaranteed congressional victory. Negotiated relief could prove faster and more realistic than a legislative showdown.

CUSMA Remains in Force, but the Dispute Is Unresolved

Prime Minister Mark Carney has reinforced Anand’s willingness to explore a settlement. Following the midterm vote, he said Canada would welcome efforts to restore freer trade, noting the benefits for American consumers and workers as well as Canadians. Before the election results became clear, Carney had already indicated that more formal bilateral talks were restarting after a conversation with Trump. He described the U.S. position as showing some movement. None of that amounts to a tariff rollback. For businesses considering a major expansion, a positive diplomatic signal is useful, but a legally clear and lasting agreement is far more valuable.

The future of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement adds another layer of uncertainty. The three countries held their scheduled joint review on July 1, 2026, and Washington declined to extend the agreement in its existing form. Crucially, CUSMA did not expire that day: it remains in force, with its current termination date in 2036 unless the parties agree on an extension or another change. Even when goods satisfy its rules, separate sector-specific tariffs can still apply. A durable settlement would need to address the practical duties manufacturers face, not merely declare support for the principle of North American free trade.

Canada’s Longer-Term Strategy Extends Beyond Washington

While seeking immediate relief, Ottawa is also trying to reduce the vulnerability that made this tariff confrontation so disruptive. The federal government’s 2026 budget sets a goal of doubling Canadian exports to markets outside the United States by the end of 2035, backed by a $6.6-billion package for trade diversification and infrastructure. Anand has emphasized broader economic partnerships, while her participation in the G7 foreign ministers’ meeting underscores Canada’s effort to develop relationships across security, technology and commerce. For an exporter with a product suitable for overseas buyers, that strategy can open doors previously overshadowed by easy access to the U.S. market.

But the adjustment has limits. Overseas shipping is often more expensive, contracts take time to establish, and not every factory can redesign its business around distant customers. Even aluminum producers that successfully redirected shipments have faced thinner margins. Ottawa’s immediate task is therefore different from its long-term ambition: protect existing Canadian jobs through a workable relationship with Washington while giving businesses more options for the future. The midterm election has created a political opening, not an economic recovery. Its significance will ultimately be measured in tariffs removed, orders restored and workers able to plan beyond the next shift.

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