54% of Conservative Voters Back Carney’s U.S. Walkout — but Only 36% Approve His Handling: Poll

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Prime Minister Mark Carney’s decision to walk away from U.S. trade negotiations has produced an unusual political picture: many Canadians who remain skeptical of his government still believe he made the right call at the negotiating table. New national polling shows that divide is especially striking among Conservative voters.

While 54% of Canadians who voted Conservative in the 2025 federal election support suspending the talks rather than accepting Washington’s terms, only 36% approve of how Carney and the federal government have handled the negotiations overall. The gap suggests the prime minister has won significant support for one high-profile decision without necessarily winning over the voters making it. With new tariffs already reshaping the economic debate, that distinction could become increasingly important.

Conservative Voters Separate the Walkout From Carney’s Record

The headline numbers reveal something more complicated than a sudden Conservative embrace of the Liberal government. Among people who voted Conservative in 2025, 54% told Abacus Data that Canada made the right decision by suspending negotiations rather than accepting the U.S. terms. Another 31% said Ottawa made the wrong choice, while 16% were unsure. That represents a clear majority behind the specific act of walking away, despite the partisan divide surrounding almost every other aspect of federal politics.

Ask those same voters to assess the government’s overall management of the negotiations, however, and the picture changes sharply. Only 36% approve, while 38% disapprove and 23% are neutral. A substantial 24% strongly disapprove. In practical terms, a Conservative voter can believe Canada should have rejected Washington’s offer while also believing Carney’s earlier negotiating strategy helped produce the confrontation. Those positions are not mutually exclusive, and the poll suggests many opposition voters are holding both at once.

Nationally, the Decision Has Much Broader Support Than the Government

Across the entire country, Carney’s decision received considerably stronger backing than most partisan political measures normally attract. Abacus found that 71% of Canadian adults believe Ottawa was right to suspend the negotiations, even though the question explicitly acknowledged that doing so could result in higher tariffs and greater economic uncertainty. Just 17% said the government should have accepted the American terms, while 12% were uncertain.

Carney also performs relatively well when Canadians judge the broader negotiations, but the number is lower. Sixty percent approve of the government’s handling, compared with 18% who disapprove. Independent polling points in much the same direction. Angus Reid Institute found 76% believed Canada was right to leave the talks and only 13% thought the decision was wrong. Among Conservative voters in that poll, 53% supported walking away. Two different polling organizations therefore found almost identical majority support among Conservatives for rejecting the U.S. terms.

Conservative Criticism Has Focused on How Canada Reached This Point

That distinction closely mirrors the argument Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has been making publicly. Before the latest negotiations collapsed, Poilievre accused the government of giving Washington concessions without extracting enough in return. His criticism included earlier changes involving retaliatory tariffs and other bilateral disputes. The Conservatives’ basic argument has therefore not necessarily been that Ottawa should accept whatever Washington offers, but that Canada should negotiate from a stronger position and demand more in return.

After Carney suspended the talks, Conservatives shifted their attention toward transparency and accountability. Poilievre called on the prime minister to reconvene Parliament, disclose details of the proposed agreement and explain the economic consequences of the retaliatory measures. Conservative Canada-U.S. relations critic Shuvaloy Majumdar also pressed the government to release details of the rejected proposal. That provides a political explanation for the polling split: Conservative voters can support saying “no” to the United States while remaining unconvinced that Carney managed the months leading up to that decision effectively.

Age and Geography Reveal Different Levels of Resolve

Support for refusing the U.S. terms is widespread, but it becomes dramatically stronger among older Canadians. Abacus found that 56% of adults aged 18 to 29 supported suspending negotiations. Support rose to 63% among those aged 30 to 44, 70% among people aged 45 to 59 and 85% among Canadians aged 60 and older. Only 7% of the oldest group believed Ottawa should have accepted the U.S. offer, compared with 28% of the youngest adults.

Geography produces a similar range without eliminating majority support anywhere. Quebec registered the strongest backing for the decision at 79%, while Alberta was lowest at 61%. Ontario stood at 70% and British Columbia at 68%. Approval of the government’s overall handling was softer: 63% in Quebec and 61% in both Ontario and British Columbia, but only 48% in Alberta. The numbers suggest national unity around resisting an unacceptable agreement exists, although confidence in Ottawa’s execution remains considerably less uniform.

Economic Anxiety Is the Biggest Test of That Political Support

Backing a hard negotiating line is easier before households and employers absorb the full cost of a trade confrontation. Canada remains deeply tied to the American economy. Statistics Canada reported that 71.7% of Canadian merchandise exports went to the United States in 2025, even after that share fell from 75.9% in 2024. The Bank of Canada has repeatedly identified U.S. tariffs and uncertainty over the North American trading relationship as major restraints on Canadian economic activity.

Ottawa is already preparing for the consequences. The federal government says counter-tariffs taking effect September 8 will cover $27.6 billion of U.S. imports, with rates of 15%, 25% or 50% depending on the product. It has also announced $7.5 billion in new and enhanced assistance for affected workers and businesses. Angus Reid found 38% of Canadians in the labour force worried that the dispute could affect their own jobs, while 89% expressed at least some concern about its effect on the cost of goods and services. Political resolve is therefore being tested alongside very practical economic fears.

Canadians Expect the Dispute to Last

Public support for the walkout should not be mistaken for optimism about what happens next. Abacus found only 15% expect Canada and the United States to resume negotiations and reach an agreement within a few days that removes most of the new tariffs. The largest group, 32%, expects the confrontation to drag on before the two sides eventually reach a deal.

Others are considerably more pessimistic. Twenty-two percent expect further escalation through additional tariffs or other measures, while 18% believe the dispute could become a lasting feature of the bilateral relationship, potentially accompanied by the end of CUSMA. Combined, 40% anticipate escalation or a prolonged breakdown, compared with 47% who ultimately expect some form of agreement. Conservative voters are similarly divided about the destination: 45% expect an agreement outcome while 44% anticipate conflict. The partisan differences that dominate domestic politics therefore shrink considerably when Canadians are asked to predict Washington’s next move.

CUSMA Uncertainty Is Making the Stakes Much Larger

The dispute is unfolding against a broader question about the future of continental free trade. Under CUSMA’s review provisions, failure by all three countries to agree on a 16-year extension at the six-year review does not immediately terminate the agreement. Instead, annual reviews begin while the existing agreement remains in force. The United States declined to renew CUSMA in its current form during the July 2026 review, opening a much longer period of uncertainty.

Canadians appear well aware of that risk. Only 17% in the Abacus poll expect Canada, the United States and Mexico ultimately to renew or update CUSMA while preserving a close trading relationship resembling the current arrangement. Another 30% expect the agreement to survive with significant changes and more trade restrictions, while 29% expect it eventually to break down. Conservative voters are especially pessimistic: 35% foresee a breakdown, compared with 27% of Liberal voters. The current confrontation is therefore being judged not simply as another tariff dispute, but as part of a possible restructuring of North American trade.

Carney Has Cross-Partisan Support — but Not a Blank Cheque

For Carney, the immediate political advantage is clear. A prime minister facing an escalating confrontation with Washington can point to majority support not only among Liberals, New Democrats and Bloc Québécois voters, but even among people who backed the Conservatives in the last election. That gives the government unusually broad public permission to reject an agreement it argues would weaken Canadian economic or political independence. It also makes it harder for opponents simply to characterize the walkout itself as a partisan Liberal decision.

The limitation is equally important. Conservative voters have not suddenly become Carney supporters, and 36% approval for his handling of the file shows how much skepticism remains. Earlier Abacus polling in May found only 31% of Conservative voters saying Carney was handling U.S. negotiations well, although question wording and circumstances differed. The latest numbers suggest the walkout may have softened some opposition without erasing it. Whether that support lasts may depend less on the drama of leaving the negotiating table than on jobs, prices, investment and whether Ottawa can eventually turn resistance into a workable trade relationship.

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