Former Canadian Ambassador Says U.S. Midterm Results Open New Trade Opportunity for Farmers Facing Trump Tariffs

35,000+ smart investors are already getting financial news, market signals, and macro shifts in the economy that could impact their money next with our FREE weekly newsletter. Get ahead of what the crowd finds out too late. Click Here to Subscribe for FREE.

For Canadian farmers navigating unpredictable tariffs and increasingly complicated international trade relationships, a political shift in Washington could offer an unexpected opportunity.

Former Manitoba premier and Canadian ambassador to the United States Gary Doer believes the results of the November 3, 2026, U.S. midterm elections could create new possibilities for agricultural cooperation between the two countries.

Democrats’ victories in both chambers of Congress have changed the political landscape, potentially increasing scrutiny of President Donald Trump’s trade policies. Speaking at an agricultural conference in Winnipeg, Doer suggested the outcome could give Canadian producers greater influence in discussions about tariffs and market access.

However, his optimism comes with an important qualification: changing the balance of power in Washington does not automatically eliminate trade barriers. For farmers already making decisions about future crops and investments, the opportunity lies in turning political pressure into practical economic improvements.

A Political Shift in Washington Creates New Hope for Canadian Agriculture

The November 3 midterm elections delivered a significant setback for President Donald Trump, with Democrats winning control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The results reflected widespread frustration among American voters over living costs, economic uncertainty and the direction of the administration’s policies. For Canada, the change creates a potentially more receptive political environment for discussions about tariffs and trade cooperation, particularly in states where agriculture and manufacturing are major employers.

Gary Doer addressed that possibility on November 5 at the EMILI Agriculture Enlightened conference in Winnipeg. The former ambassador suggested Canada’s agricultural industry could emerge in a stronger negotiating position than before the election. His assessment was not based on expectations that Democrats would immediately reverse Trump’s policies. Instead, he emphasized that American lawmakers now have stronger political incentives to examine the economic consequences of tariffs. For Canadian producers, that distinction matters because stable trade relationships depend as much on political cooperation as on formal trade agreements.

Democrats Gain New Power to Challenge Trump’s Tariffs

Democratic control of Congress is expected to create additional scrutiny of the Trump administration’s trade decisions when the new Congress convenes in January 2027. Congressional committees can investigate government policies, question officials and examine how tariff decisions affect American businesses. These powers could bring greater attention to industries that have experienced rising costs or disrupted supply chains. Agriculture is particularly relevant because farmers often operate with narrow margins and depend on predictable access to equipment, inputs and export markets.

However, Democratic victories do not give Congress unlimited authority to reverse presidential trade measures. Most legislation remains subject to Senate procedural rules that can require 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. Trump also retains the ability to veto legislation, with a two-thirds majority in both chambers required to override him. Reuters reported that trade experts expect congressional oversight to increase while significant tariff reductions remain difficult to achieve. The more immediate opportunity for Canada may therefore involve increased political pressure, bipartisan negotiations and greater transparency around decisions affecting cross-border commerce.

Agricultural States Could Become Important Allies for Canada

Doer’s argument places particular emphasis on the political importance of agriculture in competitive American states. Farmers in these regions are not isolated from Canadian trade policies. Many purchase Canadian products, sell agricultural goods into Canada or work with businesses whose supply chains cross the border. When tariffs disrupt those relationships, the consequences can reach agricultural communities that play influential roles in American elections. That creates opportunities for Canadian officials to frame trade cooperation around shared economic interests rather than disagreements between national governments.

Government trade figures illustrate the depth of these connections. In 2025, Iowa exported approximately US$1.6 billion in agricultural and agri-food products to Canada while importing about US$701 million from Canadian suppliers. Michigan’s agricultural trade with Canada totalled approximately US$2.8 billion. Such relationships provide tangible examples for lawmakers considering the effects of trade restrictions. A tariff that appears politically attractive in Washington may create additional costs for businesses in individual states. Doer believes explaining those local consequences could make agricultural cooperation more appealing to politicians from both parties.

Canada Has Billions of Dollars in Agricultural Trade at Stake

The economic importance of the United States to Canadian agriculture is difficult to overstate. According to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canadian agri-food and seafood exports to the American market reached approximately C$61.4 billion in 2025. That represented 60.6% of Canada’s global exports in those categories. Canada also imported approximately C$38.8 billion in American agricultural and seafood products, demonstrating how closely the two countries’ food systems are connected. Major Canadian exports include canola oil, bakery products and chocolate preparations.

These figures represent more than international transactions recorded in government reports. They reflect employment in food processing plants, agricultural transportation networks, rural communities and farming operations across Canada. A grain producer in Saskatchewan, a food manufacturer in Ontario and a livestock operation in Alberta may experience trade uncertainty differently, but all depend on functioning markets. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada also identifies Canada as the leading agri-food and seafood export destination for 28 American states. That mutual dependence strengthens the argument that stable trade arrangements benefit producers and consumers on both sides of the border.

Trump’s Tariffs Are Creating Challenges Beyond Direct Export Costs

The effect of American tariffs on Canadian agriculture is more complicated than a single tax applied to every shipment. Many Canadian agricultural products that meet the rules of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement continue to qualify for preferential treatment. The United States maintained an exemption for qualifying goods under its 2026 baseline tariff measures. Nevertheless, other trade restrictions, retaliatory measures and changing import requirements have created additional uncertainty for businesses. Some agricultural producers face indirect costs even when their own exports are not specifically targeted.

The Canadian government’s September 2026 countermeasures illustrate how trade disputes can reach agricultural operations through equipment and related industries. Ottawa announced tariffs covering selected American products, including agricultural machinery and dairy-related goods, in response to U.S. measures. For farmers, higher machinery costs can influence decisions about replacing tractors, purchasing equipment or expanding operations. Doer has questioned whether American tariff decisions received sufficient examination of their economic consequences before being announced. His argument is that lawmakers must consider how trade barriers affect businesses throughout an interconnected economy, rather than focusing exclusively on the industries they are intended to protect.

Trade Uncertainty Is Already Influencing Decisions About Future Crops

Agricultural businesses cannot easily suspend their decisions while politicians negotiate. Farmers planning for the 2027 growing season must consider which crops to plant, what seed varieties to purchase and how much to invest in fertilizer, machinery and other inputs. These decisions depend partly on expectations about international demand and commodity prices. If important export markets become less reliable, producers may reconsider their planting plans or delay investments. Such uncertainty can also affect seed companies, agricultural researchers and businesses developing new crop varieties.

Canada’s seed sector provides a particularly useful example of the problem. Developing and commercializing improved crop varieties involves research, testing and investment over multiple growing seasons. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada identifies plant breeding innovations as important tools for improving resistance to drought, extreme temperatures, pests and disease. However, the commercial value of these innovations also depends on farmers having profitable markets for their crops. Canadian canola organizations emphasized these concerns when discussing recent trade developments, noting that producers are already planning their next growing season while managing elevated input costs. Greater predictability in international trade could therefore support both immediate farming decisions and longer-term agricultural innovation.

The Future of CUSMA Adds Another Layer of Uncertainty

The Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement remains a central issue in negotiations between Ottawa and Washington. Donald Trump negotiated the agreement during his first presidency, and it entered into force in July 2020. However, during the scheduled July 1, 2026, joint review, the United States declined to renew the agreement in its existing form. That decision did not terminate CUSMA. The agreement remains operational, but the countries must now conduct annual reviews unless they reach an agreement to extend its term.

For agricultural businesses, this distinction is significant. Existing preferential trade provisions remain important, but uncertainty about the agreement’s longer-term future complicates investment planning. The United States Trade Representative opened consultations in October for the 2027 review, with public comments due by January 12, 2027. Agriculture is among the sectors affected by longstanding disagreements, including American concerns about Canadian dairy market access. Doer believes Canadian negotiators should remind Washington that CUSMA was originally promoted as an achievement of Trump’s own administration. Rather than allowing political disagreements to dominate negotiations, he favours finding practical arrangements that preserve the economic benefits of North American trade.

China’s New Agricultural Trade Agreement Gives Canada Another Option

While Canadian officials examine opportunities in Washington, developments in China demonstrate the importance of maintaining relationships with other major agricultural markets. On November 4, Canada’s international trade minister, Maninder Sidhu, announced that Ottawa and Beijing had agreed to extend favourable market access for Canadian canola meal, peas, lobster and crab through the end of 2028. The agreement provides producers with additional certainty after a period of serious trade disruptions between the two countries.

One particularly important provision extends the suspension of China’s 100% retaliatory tariff on Canadian canola meal. Under the earlier arrangement, that suspension had been scheduled to expire at the end of December 2026. The Canola Council of Canada and Canadian Canola Growers Association welcomed the extension, describing predictable market access as important for producer planning. The agreement comes as farmers prepare their next crops and evaluate future sales opportunities. Although the measure does not eliminate every Chinese tariff affecting Canadian agriculture, it demonstrates that negotiated trade relief remains possible even amid broader diplomatic disagreements.

Doer Warns Canada to Balance Its Relationships With Washington and Beijing

Expanding agricultural exports to China may help Canadian producers reduce their dependence on the American market, but Doer believes diversification requires careful diplomacy. He supports maintaining communication and commercial cooperation with China while recognizing Washington’s concerns about Beijing. American political candidates have used relationships with China as an election issue, making the subject particularly sensitive for Canadian officials seeking stronger connections with American governors and lawmakers.

The economic challenge is maintaining access to both markets without allowing disagreements with one trading partner to undermine relations with the other. Canadian agriculture already has substantial exposure to the United States, which purchased more than 60% of Canada’s agri-food and seafood exports in 2025. China is also an important market for Canadian agricultural commodities, particularly canola and other field crops. Doer’s approach suggests that diversification should be treated as a way to strengthen Canada’s resilience rather than as a political rejection of American trade. For producers, reliable access to multiple markets can create additional sales opportunities and reduce the risks associated with sudden trade restrictions.

Farmers Need a Stronger Voice in Ottawa’s Trade Decisions

Doer’s recommendations extended beyond Washington and international negotiations. Speaking to the agricultural audience in Winnipeg, he argued that Canadian producers themselves should play a more prominent role in discussions with federal decision-makers. Industry organizations and professional advocates provide important technical expertise, but farmers can explain how policy decisions affect actual production, financing and business planning. His approach reflects an understanding that economic statistics do not always communicate the pressures experienced by individual agricultural operations.

Recalling his years in government, Doer explained his approach with a simple statement: “I never went to Ottawa for farm discussions without farmers.” The observation carries particular weight in an industry that included approximately 190,000 Canadian farms in 2025. Those operations vary considerably in size, production methods and financial circumstances. A policy that benefits one agricultural sector may create difficulties for another. Bringing producers directly into discussions can help officials understand these differences before making commitments. Doer’s broader message is that Canadian agriculture needs representation from people who work with the consequences of trade decisions every day, not exclusively those who analyze them from government offices.

A Trade Breakthrough Will Require More Than Election Results

Despite Doer’s optimism, Canadian officials have made clear that the midterm elections will not fundamentally change Ottawa’s negotiating strategy. On November 4, Dominic LeBlanc, the minister responsible for Canada-U.S. trade relations, said the election outcome would not significantly alter the federal government’s priorities. He indicated that discussions with American officials would continue. Meanwhile, Reuters reported that Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney had described progress toward a potential trade agreement, although important differences remained unresolved.

For farmers, a meaningful breakthrough could involve fewer trade barriers, clearer import rules or stronger assurances that established agricultural supply chains will remain accessible. Congressional scrutiny might increase pressure for those outcomes, but negotiations with the Trump administration remain essential. Doer captured his preference for practical results with a straightforward observation: “If somebody offers you to get rid of a tariff, you take it.” Ultimately, the greatest benefit of the American election may not be an immediate change in policy. It could be the opportunity to make agriculture’s economic importance harder for Washington to ignore while Canada pursues a more predictable trading relationship.

This Options Discord Chat is The Real Deal

While the internet is scoured with trading chat rooms, many of which even charge upwards of thousands of dollars to join, this smaller options trading discord chatroom is the real deal and actually providing valuable trade setups, education, and community without the noise and spam of the larger more expensive rooms. With a incredibly low-cost monthly fee, Options Trading Club (click here to see their reviews) requires an application to join ensuring that every member is dedicated and serious about taking their trading to the next level. If you are looking for a change in your trading strategies, then click here to apply for a membership.