Trump’s Approval Hits Record-Low 31% as Democrats Open 12-Point Lead Over Republicans Ahead of U.S. Midterms

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President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to a new low in Reuters/Ipsos polling, raising fresh concerns for Republicans just two weeks before Americans decide which party will control Congress.

A survey released October 19 found that only 31% of Americans approve of Trump’s job performance, while Democrats hold a commanding 12-percentage-point advantage among registered voters in the congressional race. The findings reflect growing frustration over the economy, high gasoline prices and the war with Iran.

With the November 3 midterm elections approaching, Republicans face the possibility of losing their narrow congressional majorities. Democrats have gained momentum, but their national polling advantage does not guarantee victory in individual districts and states. The next two weeks will determine whether public dissatisfaction translates into a significant shift in Washington’s balance of power.

Trump’s Approval Falls to Its Lowest Point in Reuters/Ipsos Polling

The latest Reuters/Ipsos survey places Trump’s job approval at just 31%, down from 32% two weeks earlier and the lowest reading recorded by the polling series across his two presidential terms. Another 66% disapprove of his performance, including 51% who strongly disapprove. The findings suggest that dissatisfaction has spread well beyond traditional Democratic voters. Although Trump’s strongest supporters remain committed, the president is struggling to maintain broader public confidence as Republicans prepare to defend their congressional majorities.

The survey was conducted October 16–19 among 1,679 American adults, including 1,279 registered voters. Ipsos reported a margin of sampling error of approximately 2.4 percentage points for the full sample. Other major pollsters have recorded similarly weak results, although their figures differ. Pew Research Center measured Trump’s approval at 30% in early October, while a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos survey placed it at 33%. The 31% figure is therefore a record low within the Reuters/Ipsos polling series, rather than a universal measurement across all surveys. Together, the findings point toward a difficult political environment for the president.

Democrats Expand Their Congressional Lead to 12 Points

The Reuters/Ipsos poll delivered particularly concerning numbers for Republicans in its congressional voting question. Among registered voters, 47% said they would support Democratic candidates, compared with 35% who preferred Republicans. That represents a 12-percentage-point Democratic advantage, the widest recorded during the current election cycle. Two weeks earlier, Democrats led 44% to 37%, meaning their advantage has expanded by five points in a relatively short period.

The movement matters because congressional elections frequently reflect public attitudes toward the party occupying the White House. A significant national preference for Democrats could threaten Republican incumbents in competitive districts, especially where previous elections were decided narrowly. However, the survey also found registered voters who were undecided, preferred another party or did not plan to vote. The 47% figure is not a prediction of the final national vote, and a 12-point polling advantage does not translate directly into an equivalent share of congressional seats. Local candidates, turnout and district boundaries will ultimately determine the outcome.

High Living Costs Are Becoming Republicans’ Biggest Problem

Economic dissatisfaction appears to be one of the strongest forces behind the Republican Party’s declining support. The Reuters/Ipsos survey found that 47% of registered voters identified the cost of living as the single most important factor in their congressional vote. That concern crossed party lines, with 47% of both Democratic and Republican respondents selecting affordability. The same Reuters reporting found that 68% of Americans disapproved of Trump’s handling of the economy, including 37% of self-identified Republicans.

Other polling reinforces the concern. An October Fox News survey found that 77% of registered voters disapproved of Trump’s handling of inflation, while 70% disapproved of his economic performance overall. For households managing groceries, mortgage payments, utilities and transportation costs, improvements in broader economic indicators may offer little comfort when everyday expenses remain difficult to manage. Republicans have emphasized their economic policies and argued that their approach supports growth, but the polling suggests many voters remain unconvinced that those policies are improving their financial circumstances.

Rising Gas Prices and the Iran War Are Hurting Public Confidence

The war with Iran has created another serious political challenge for Trump. American and Israeli military strikes beginning in February 2026 contributed to a conflict that disrupted energy markets and placed additional pressure on gasoline prices. As fuel costs increased, the consequences reached households and businesses far removed from the battlefield. Higher transportation expenses can affect everything from delivery services and farming operations to family budgets, making international developments a domestic political issue.

The scale of the change is illustrated by a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos survey released in October. In February, 71% of Americans considered gasoline affordable. By October, 71% described it as unaffordable. The same survey found that 65% considered the decision to take military action against Iran a mistake. Although oil prices respond to multiple global forces, the conflict has become closely associated with affordability concerns. For Republicans defending Trump’s foreign policy, the challenge is explaining the administration’s strategic objectives while voters increasingly focus on the financial consequences.

Women Are Driving Much of the Democratic Advantage

Female voters represent one of the most significant developments in the latest congressional polling. Reuters/Ipsos found that 50% of registered women preferred Democratic candidates, compared with 32% supporting Republicans. That 18-point gap contributed substantially to Democrats’ growing national lead. Male voters also favoured Democrats, although by a smaller margin. The results suggest that Republican difficulties extend across gender groups rather than being confined to a single demographic.

Women are not a politically uniform voting bloc, and their priorities can vary considerably by age, education, income and community. Nevertheless, concerns about household expenses, health care and government leadership are becoming important features of the campaign. The October Fox News survey also found Democratic advantages among women and voters younger than 45. For Republicans, recovering support among women could help stabilize competitive suburban districts. Democrats, meanwhile, must convert favourable attitudes into actual votes. A substantial polling lead is valuable only if the voters expressing those preferences participate in the election.

Some Republican Voters Are Questioning Trump’s Economic Leadership

One of the more revealing findings concerns dissatisfaction inside Trump’s own political coalition. Reuters/Ipsos reported that 37% of Republicans disapproved of his handling of the economy, even though the president retained substantial overall support among Republican identifiers. In the latest Ipsos topline, 77% of self-identified Republicans approved of Trump’s overall job performance. The difference illustrates an important distinction: voters can remain loyal to a president while criticizing specific policies or outcomes.

Pew Research Center found another sign of weakening enthusiasm. Among verified 2024 Trump voters, 67% approved of his performance in early October, compared with 95% near the beginning of his second term. Yet 77% of those 2024 Trump voters still preferred Republican congressional candidates. This suggests dissatisfaction does not automatically translate into support for Democrats. Some voters may remain committed to Republican candidates, while others become less motivated to participate. For the GOP, maintaining turnout among disappointed supporters could be as important as persuading undecided voters.

Democratic Voters Appear More Motivated to Turn Out

Public opinion is only one ingredient in an election. Participation determines whether that opinion changes the composition of Congress. Pew Research Center’s September 28–October 4 survey found that 63% of registered voters supporting Democratic House candidates were extremely motivated to vote, compared with 46% of Republican candidate supporters. Democratic supporters were also more likely to say the outcome really mattered, by 78% to 69%. Those differences suggest an enthusiasm advantage for Democrats.

The same research found that 44% of registered voters viewed their congressional choice as a vote against Trump, compared with 19% who considered it a vote in his favour. That places the president at the centre of an election in which he is not personally on the ballot. Still, expressed enthusiasm and actual turnout are different measures. Midterm elections traditionally attract fewer voters than presidential contests, and participation varies across demographic groups. Republicans could narrow the apparent disadvantage if their strongest supporters participate at higher rates than polling suggests.

Democrats Have Momentum but Face Their Own Popularity Problems

The Democratic Party’s improving electoral position does not necessarily mean Americans have developed overwhelmingly positive attitudes toward it. An October Fox News survey found that only 42% of registered voters viewed Democrats favourably, while 58% held an unfavourable opinion. Republicans performed worse, with 38% expressing favourable views and 61% unfavourable. The same poll found that just 35% believed Democrats had a clear plan for addressing national problems, compared with 33% who said the same about Republicans.

Those findings suggest some Democratic support is driven more by dissatisfaction with the government than enthusiasm for the opposition. Republicans also maintain advantages on certain issues. Fox News polling found voters trusted the GOP more on crime and border security, while Democrats led on health care, inflation and several other domestic concerns. Campaign messages and candidate quality could therefore matter considerably in competitive races. A voter unhappy with Trump might still support a Republican candidate whose priorities align more closely with their own.

Republicans Face a Difficult Battle to Keep the House

Control of the House of Representatives is increasingly at risk for Republicans. As of October 19, the party held a narrow 218–214 advantage, with two vacancies and one independent who caucused with Republicans. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure control under the current composition. The Cook Political Report shifted another 11 House race ratings toward Democrats on October 16, reflecting growing competitiveness in districts across the country, including areas that Trump carried comfortably in 2024.

Despite the national Democratic advantage, analysts estimate that only about 40 to 50 of the House’s 435 districts are truly competitive this year. That limits how easily a national shift can produce sweeping seat gains. Republicans also retain meaningful fundraising and campaign resources. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise has emphasized opportunities to compete in Democratic-held districts, identifying 35 competitive races, including 15 held by Democrats. Republican strategists are attempting to use local campaign strengths and targeted spending to overcome the national political environment. The final House outcome may depend on a relatively small number of closely contested districts.

Senate Control Could Prove Harder for Democrats to Win

The Senate presents a different electoral challenge. Republicans currently hold a 53–47 majority, including the two independents who caucus with Democrats on the other side of that division. Democrats would need a net gain of four seats to reach a 51–49 majority. Unlike the House, where every seat is contested every two years, Senate elections involve only a portion of the chamber. The political characteristics of individual states therefore matter more than the national congressional polling average.

Several important Senate contests are taking place in states where Trump performed strongly in the 2024 presidential election. That creates obstacles for Democratic candidates even when the president’s national approval rating is weak. The difference between the chambers is familiar: in 2018, Democrats gained roughly 40 House seats during Trump’s first term but lost two Senate seats. A similar split outcome remains possible in 2026. Winning either chamber would allow Democrats to challenge the administration more forcefully, with House control bringing additional oversight opportunities and Senate control affecting legislation and appointments. For now, the polling establishes an advantage, not an election result.

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