⁠Doug Ford Says Ontario Must Prepare for Trump Tariffs to Stay — Even if Republicans Turn Against Him

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Ontario Premier Doug Ford is warning that the province cannot count on American trade restrictions disappearing when Donald Trump’s presidency ends, even if the president loses political support within his own Republican Party.

Speaking at Toronto’s Empire Club on October 14, 2026, Ford said Ontario must prepare for tariffs to become a lasting feature of its relationship with the United States. He also predicted that Republicans could turn against Trump if their party loses control of Congress in November’s midterm elections.

The warning arrives as Ontario’s automotive and steel industries confront production disruptions, layoffs and growing uncertainty over access to American customers. For businesses, workers and communities dependent on cross-border trade, Ford’s message represents a significant change in expectations: economic planning must extend beyond the current president and the next election.

Ford Says Ontario Can No Longer Assume Tariffs Will Disappear

Doug Ford delivered his warning during a State of the Province address and fireside discussion at the Empire Club of Canada in Toronto on Wednesday, October 14. The premier argued that the economic relationship between Canada and the United States had changed fundamentally. Rather than assuming Washington would eventually return to its previous approach to free trade, he said provincial businesses and governments should plan for protectionism to continue. His remarks reflected growing concern that tariff disputes are becoming a structural feature of American industrial policy rather than a temporary negotiating tactic.

Ford’s warning carries particular weight because Ontario depends heavily on American customers for manufactured goods. According to federal economic development data, approximately 72% of Ontario’s merchandise exports went to the United States in 2025. Roughly 933,000 Ontario jobs were supported by American export demand. Ford’s position does not establish that tariffs will actually become permanent, nor does it mean negotiations have no value. Instead, it signals that provincial investment decisions, industrial support programs and workforce planning can no longer depend on a quick return to tariff-free trade.

Republicans Could Turn Against Trump After the Midterms

Ford also offered a prediction about the political consequences of the November 3 American midterm elections. He suggested that Republican lawmakers could withdraw their support from Trump if the party loses control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. His comments were notable because they separated the president’s personal political future from the economic policies his administration has introduced. Ford appeared to believe that Trump’s influence could weaken considerably following an electoral defeat, although he did not suggest that such an outcome would automatically reverse tariffs on Canadian products.

There are signs of political pressure on the president. An AP-NORC poll conducted September 24–28 found that 64% of American adults believed Trump had gone too far in imposing tariffs on other countries, up from 58% in January. Michigan Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers, previously supportive of Trump’s tariff policies, called for an end to the trade dispute with Canada on October 7. These developments demonstrate growing resistance, but they do not establish that Republicans generally have abandoned protectionism. Ford’s underlying concern is that American trade policy could remain restrictive even if Trump’s political position deteriorates.

3. Ontario Faces a Much Broader Trade War Than Before

The latest trade conflict is no longer limited to the steel, aluminum and automotive industries. In August 2026, Washington imposed additional 50% tariffs on a broad range of Canadian products under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930. These restrictions affected categories including furniture, plastics, electronics, paper products, machinery and other manufactured goods. The United States subsequently modified some tariffs and introduced further restrictions, including import bans covering specified Canadian alcoholic beverages, dairy products and motorcycles beginning September 29. The expanding measures brought additional Ontario exporters into the dispute.

Canada responded with counter-tariffs effective September 8, covering approximately $27.6 billion in American imports. The duties vary by product, with rates of 15%, 25% or 50%. For manufacturers, the practical consequences depend on product classifications, customs rules and whether goods qualify for particular exemptions. Some trade continues under preferential Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement provisions, while other products face separate national security tariffs or restrictions that apply regardless of CUSMA compliance. These overlapping rules create a difficult environment for firms deciding where to manufacture products, purchase components and establish long-term distribution arrangements.

Ontario’s Auto Industry Is Particularly Exposed to Permanent Tariffs

Automotive manufacturing remains one of the clearest examples of Ontario’s dependence on American trade. Federal economic development records indicate that Ontario exported approximately $60 billion in vehicles and automotive parts to the United States in 2025, representing 96% of the province’s automotive exports. Nationally, more than 90% of Canadian-built vehicles and 60% of Canadian-made automotive parts are shipped to American customers. Since April 2025, vehicles manufactured in Canada have faced a 25% American tariff on their non-U.S. content, subject to specific rules and exemptions.

The effects are visible in communities built around automotive production. In January 2026, General Motors eliminated the third shift at its Oshawa assembly complex, affecting more than 700 direct jobs according to Unifor. Supplier companies also faced employment consequences. Meanwhile, changes to Stellantis’ production plans in Brampton have heightened concern about the future of Canadian assembly operations. These decisions involve multiple commercial considerations, but tariffs have become a major factor in industry planning. Permanent restrictions would force manufacturers to reconsider whether future vehicle programs should be located in Canada, the United States or other markets.

Hamilton Steel Layoffs Show the Human Cost of Trade Uncertainty

Ontario’s steel industry is confronting an especially immediate crisis. Cleveland-Cliffs, the American company that owns Stelco, announced plans in September to idle cold-rolled and coated steel operations at its Hamilton facility. The decision affects up to 500 workers, with production concentrating at the company’s Lake Erie Works operation in Nanticoke. Stelco cited American tariffs, weakened market conditions and competition from imported steel. Although the company offered some affected employees opportunities elsewhere, the shutdown represents another setback for Hamilton’s long-established manufacturing economy.

The dispute has also become a confrontation between Ottawa and Stelco’s ownership. On October 14, federal Industry Minister Mélanie Joly warned that Cleveland-Cliffs could face financial penalties or potentially be forced to sell its Canadian assets if it violates undertakings made when acquiring Stelco in 2024. The government maintains that employment commitments remain legally binding despite changing market conditions. Stelco disputes the allegation that its layoffs breach those commitments. For workers, the disagreement adds another layer of uncertainty. While politicians debate tariffs and investment agreements, families face immediate questions about wages, pensions and the availability of comparable industrial employment.

Ontario’s Employment Numbers Reveal a Complicated Economic Picture

The latest employment figures underscore the pressure facing Ontario, although they do not show that tariffs are responsible for every lost job. Statistics Canada’s September 2026 Labour Force Survey reported that Ontario employment declined by approximately 20,000 positions during the month. The provincial unemployment rate remained near 7.0%. Across Canada, employment fell by 68,000, including approximately 13,000 manufacturing jobs. However, some of the largest national declines occurred in education, health care and social assistance, demonstrating that the country’s labour market difficulties extend beyond international trade.

There are also signs of resilience. Ontario employment remained approximately 86,000 positions higher than a year earlier, despite recent monthly losses. The challenge is that provincial employment growth can conceal substantial hardship in individual industries and communities. A service-sector employer adding workers in Toronto does not necessarily create suitable opportunities for an experienced machine operator facing layoffs in Hamilton or Oshawa. Ford’s emphasis on preparing for long-term tariffs therefore raises questions about retraining, wage protection and regional economic development. The province must address immediate layoffs while helping workers acquire skills that will remain valuable as manufacturing technology and trading relationships change.

Ontario’s $5-Billion Tariff Relief Account Faces Questions About Delivery

Ford’s government has established a significant financial response to the trade dispute, but the pace of assistance has attracted criticism. Ontario’s $5-billion Protect Ontario Account includes a $1-billion financing program designed to help tariff-affected businesses manage working capital requirements. The government expanded eligibility during 2026 as additional American trade restrictions affected more industries. By late September, however, officials had identified approximately $100 million in support for Algoma Steel and roughly $40 million in approved financing associated with 18 successful applications.

The figures emerged during legislative committee questioning and prompted opposition criticism that the province’s assistance was reaching too few businesses. Government officials countered that additional support programs were operating and that the province needed to preserve financial flexibility during uncertain economic conditions. Eligibility requirements may also limit access for smaller companies. The financing program generally requires applicants to have at least $2 million in annual revenue, ten full-time Ontario employees and an established operating history. These conditions are intended to target viable businesses facing temporary liquidity problems, but they exclude many very small enterprises. If tariffs become a permanent burden, the effectiveness of provincial assistance will depend not merely on the amounts announced, but on how quickly appropriate support reaches employers and protects jobs.

Ford Is Betting on Nuclear Power and New Energy Infrastructure

Ford’s longer-term response includes major energy investments intended to make Ontario more competitive and less vulnerable to foreign economic pressure. On September 21, 2026, the province announced the start of construction on the refurbishment of four reactors at the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station. The project is expected to extend their operating lives by as much as 38 years. Ontario is also pursuing small modular reactors at Darlington and further nuclear development to provide electricity for manufacturers, expanding communities and energy-intensive industries.

The premier has additionally promoted the proposed Northern Shield Energy Corridor, a 3,300-kilometre route that would carry Alberta crude oil from Hardisty to Sarnia entirely through Canada. Ford and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith unveiled the proposed route in July. The project remains a proposal, not an approved or operating pipeline, and would require substantial regulatory, financial and construction commitments. Its strategic purpose is to strengthen domestic energy connections and reduce reliance on cross-border infrastructure. While these initiatives could create industrial opportunities and support future investment, they will not immediately replace automotive or steel jobs. Their economic benefits depend on successful completion, competitive energy costs and sustained demand.

Carney’s Failed Trade Talks Have Changed Ontario’s Expectations

Ford’s warning follows the collapse of bilateral trade negotiations in August. Prime Minister Mark Carney suspended discussions with Washington on August 21 after concluding that last-minute American demands would undermine Canadian economic interests and decision-making independence. The proposed arrangement had been intended to reduce sectoral tariffs and provide greater certainty to businesses. Ford supported Carney’s decision to reject the terms, arguing that a damaging long-term agreement would be worse than continuing without a new deal. The two leaders belong to different political traditions but have found common ground in defending Canadian industrial interests.

Importantly, the suspension of negotiations does not mean CUSMA has automatically expired. The agreement’s scheduled six-year review in 2026 was designed to evaluate its operation, not terminate it immediately. Existing trade preferences continue where applicable, while separate American tariff measures still affect specific products. That legal distinction matters for businesses making investment decisions. Ford can advocate forcefully for Ontario’s industries, but formal international trade negotiations remain the responsibility of the federal government. Ontario’s challenge is to prepare for continued restrictions without closing the door to a future agreement that could restore more predictable market access.

Ontario Must Find New Markets Without Losing Its Largest Customer

Trade diversification is becoming central to Ontario’s economic strategy. In April 2026, the province reported that exports to markets outside the United States had increased nearly 28% during 2025 compared with the previous year, and almost 75% since 2018. Ontario also expanded efforts to connect businesses with customers in Europe, Asia and South America. One initiative, GoEU, received approximately $2.5 million from the federal government and another $2.5 million from Ontario to help companies explore European markets. These programs offer potential opportunities for manufacturers seeking to reduce their exposure to American policy changes.

Still, diversification cannot replace decades of integrated manufacturing relationships overnight. Ontario’s automotive industry depends on specialized continental supply chains, while American buyers remain essential to steel, aluminum and numerous other industries. Ford’s government will face renewed scrutiny when the provincial legislature returns on October 27, with opposition parties pressing for stronger support for affected businesses and workers. The November 3 American midterms could change Washington’s political balance, but they cannot guarantee tariff relief. Ford’s warning ultimately reflects a difficult calculation: Ontario must continue pursuing better trade arrangements while investing in the capacity to withstand a prolonged period without them.

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