Ford Government Hit Just 58% of Housing Goal Even After Expanding What Counts as a Home

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Ontario’s housing scoreboard is moving in the wrong direction at the same time its targets are becoming more ambitious. Internal provincial data obtained through freedom-of-information laws shows the province counted 86,760 homes toward its 2025 goal of 150,000 — just 58 per cent of the target. The shortfall is especially striking because Ontario’s tally went beyond conventional housing starts, adding secondary suites, long-term-care beds, retirement-home suites and student housing.

The result puts renewed pressure on Premier Doug Ford’s long-standing pledge to get 1.5 million homes built by 2031. It also raises a basic question about how progress should be measured: whether Ontario is creating enough conventional homes quickly enough, or whether a broader definition of housing is making the headline total look stronger than the underlying construction market.

The 58% Result Represents a Widening Gap

The province’s 2025 target was 150,000 homes. Internal briefing material reported by Global News shows municipalities with provincial housing targets recorded 65,476 conventional housing starts. Ontario then counted 13,693 additional residential units such as basement apartments and laneway suites, 4,522 long-term-care beds, 1,102 retirement-home suites and 1,967 student-housing units. Together, those categories brought the total to 86,760 — still 63,240 short of the annual goal.

The direction of travel matters as much as the single-year miss. Ontario’s housing tracker shows 94,908 homes counted toward a 125,000 target in 2024, or about 76 per cent. In 2023, the province reported just over 109,000 homes against a 110,000 goal once broader categories were included. The annual target therefore rose sharply while the number credited toward it fell. Rather than simply missing an unusually ambitious target for one year, Ontario has seen the distance between its housing ambitions and the amount of supply credited toward them grow noticeably larger.

Ontario’s Definition of a “Home” Became Much Broader

Ontario’s housing tracker combines five data streams: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation housing starts, additional residential units, long-term-care beds, postsecondary student beds and licensed congregate retirement-home suites. Student housing and retirement suites were added beginning with 2024 data. The province’s headline progress figure therefore is not the same as the standard housing-start measure commonly used to track new residential construction across Canada.

That distinction matters. CMHC records a housing start when construction has advanced to roughly the point where a building’s foundation has been poured, creating a consistent measure of projects that have genuinely moved into construction. A basement apartment can add a self-contained dwelling without creating a new building, while a long-term-care bed or student residence serves a more specialized population than a conventional apartment, townhouse or detached home. Each type of accommodation can relieve housing pressure in some form, but they are not interchangeable. Combining them provides a broader picture of shelter capacity while making Ontario’s headline total less directly comparable with traditional homebuilding statistics.

Targets Climbed as Conventional Construction Weakened

Ontario deliberately designed its annual housing targets to become more difficult over time. The province aimed for 110,000 homes in 2023, 125,000 in 2024 and 150,000 in 2025. The trajectory associated with the 1.5-million-home commitment then rises to roughly 175,000 homes annually from 2026 onward. Conventional construction, however, has moved in the opposite direction. Ontario’s 2026 budget says provincial housing starts declined from about 74,600 units in 2024 to 65,400 in 2025.

The slowdown is visible in the government’s own economic outlook, not merely in the broader housing scorecard. The 2026 budget projects only 64,800 housing starts this year, followed by 70,300 in 2027, 76,800 in 2028 and 80,500 in 2029. Even when secondary suites and specialized housing categories are considered separately, the conventional construction forecasts remain far below the pace envisioned when the long-term goal was established. The challenge also compounds over time: every year of weak construction leaves more housing to be produced later if the original 2031 commitment is to be reached.

Only a Small Group of Municipalities Cleared Their Targets

The provincial total masks significant differences between communities. Internal figures reported by Global News show only 13 of Ontario’s 50 municipalities with assigned targets actually met them in 2025, while another four managed at least 80 per cent. That represents a deterioration from 2024, when 15 municipalities hit their targets and another eight reached the 80-per-cent mark. In 2023, 20 municipalities exceeded their targets, with another 12 reaching at least 80 per cent.

Some of the biggest misses occurred in major housing markets where large numbers of homes are needed. Mississauga reached only 24 per cent of its 2025 target, Vaughan 26 per cent and Windsor 47 per cent, while Toronto and Markham each reached 49 per cent. Smaller municipalities sometimes faced considerably lower thresholds. Sarnia, for example, had a target of 100 homes and was credited with 654, although student housing represented a substantial part of that total. North Bay exceeded its 100-home target with 113. The results illustrate why simply counting successful municipalities can obscure where Ontario’s largest absolute housing shortfalls are occurring.

The Building Faster Fund Puts Money Behind the Targets

Ontario introduced the three-year, $1.2-billion Building Faster Fund in 2023 to give municipalities a financial incentive to move housing forward. Municipalities generally become eligible for funding when they achieve at least 80 per cent of their assigned annual target, while those exceeding their target can qualify for additional funding. Money received through the program can support housing-enabling and community infrastructure needed to accommodate new development.

The incentives have translated into substantial payouts for municipalities that performed well. Ontario awarded Milton $8.4 million in July 2026 after the town exceeded its 2025 target by 28 per cent. Thunder Bay received more than $709,000 after exceeding its target by 10 per cent. Yet the model exposes an unusual tension. Municipal governments can approve zoning, process applications and prepare water, sewer and road infrastructure, but they cannot force a private developer to begin an uneconomic project. Halton Hills Mayor Ann Lawlor has argued that municipalities can prepare for construction but builders ultimately respond to market forces. That makes local housing performance partly dependent on factors beyond city hall’s direct control.

Ontario’s Condo Slowdown Is a Major Part of the Problem

The construction weakness is particularly visible in the Greater Toronto Area, where large condominium projects historically represent an important part of the housing pipeline. CMHC reported that condominium apartment starts plunged in Toronto during the first half of 2025, with record-low pre-construction sales helping push overall housing starts to their lowest level since 2009. Financing is central to the problem because major condominium projects commonly need a large percentage of their units sold before lenders will finance construction.

By spring 2026, CMHC was still warning that the ownership-housing pipeline remained vulnerable. Condominium presales had collapsed, unsold inventories were elevated and difficult financing conditions were contributing to projects being delayed, cancelled or converted to rentals. Purpose-built rental housing has provided some relief and has performed considerably better than the condo sector, but it has not fully offset weakness in ownership construction. Ontario’s fiscal outlook has also pointed to economic uncertainty and construction costs as headwinds. That creates an important timing problem: a softer market can produce plenty of listings today while weak construction starts quietly create the conditions for another supply shortage several years later.

The Original 1.5-Million-Home Goal Is Becoming Harder to Reach

The 1.5-million target did not begin merely as a campaign slogan. Ontario’s Housing Affordability Task Force recommended in 2022 that the province add 1.5 million homes over 10 years, describing the target as ambitious but achievable if governments increased density, streamlined approvals and removed barriers to construction. The Ford government subsequently adopted the recommendation, and the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing continues to list 1.5 million homes by the end of 2031 as an official performance target.

The arithmetic has become increasingly difficult. The Financial Accountability Office noted in its assessment of the 2026 Ontario budget that projected housing starts averaging roughly 69,300 units annually over the budget outlook remain far below the 150,000 annual starts initially required to achieve the government’s long-term objective. Political language surrounding the commitment has also changed. Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy described the 1.5-million figure as a “soft target” in 2025, while Housing Minister Rob Flack has increasingly emphasized immediate affordability and getting projects started rather than focusing on the original number. The official goal remains, but the path toward achieving it has narrowed considerably.

The Government Is Shifting Toward Lowering the Cost of Building

The Ford government argues that newer measures could help restart construction by attacking the economics that prevent projects from proceeding. Ontario expanded HST relief on eligible new homes in 2026, with combined federal and provincial relief reaching as much as $130,000 for qualifying purchases. The province estimated that the measure could stimulate approximately 8,000 additional housing starts. Ontario and Ottawa have also launched an $8.8-billion, 10-year infrastructure partnership that ties funding partly to municipalities reducing development charges.

Those policies target a problem increasingly identified across the housing industry: receiving approval does not guarantee a project will be built. Financing costs, labour, construction materials, taxes, development charges and weak buyer demand can push the required selling price beyond what purchasers are willing or able to pay. Ontario has also directed significant funding toward water, wastewater, roads and other infrastructure intended to unlock development. Whether those measures produce a sustained construction rebound will ultimately matter more than the wording of the provincial housing tracker. Ontario needs projects to progress from approvals to foundations, from foundations to completed buildings, and finally into homes that people can actually occupy.

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