Carney Approval Jumps 11 Points to 62% as Conservative Voters Split 51–49 on U.S. Concessions: Angus Reid

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A sudden shift in public mood is giving Prime Minister Mark Carney fresh political room as Canada’s trade confrontation with the United States hardens. Angus Reid Institute data released September 8 puts Carney’s approval at 62%, up 11 points from August and just below his previous peak. At the same time, 73% of Canadians say Ottawa should refuse difficult concessions even if relations with Washington deteriorate further. The sharpest divide sits inside the Conservative coalition: among people who voted Conservative in 2025, 51% favour holding firm while 49% would soften Canada’s stance. The numbers suggest Canadians are rewarding resistance more than deal-making for its own sake, but they also reveal deep anxiety about leverage, jobs, prices and the durability of the country’s most important trading relationship.

Carney’s Approval Rebounds to Near Its Previous Peak

Carney’s 62% approval rating represents one of the most striking political rebounds of his time in office. Angus Reid says the figure is 11 points higher than in August and only one point below his previous high of 63%. That matters because the improvement arrived after Canada walked away from a new round of U.S. trade negotiations rather than accept terms Ottawa considered unacceptable.

The lift is also geographically broad. Angus Reid reports that Carney now holds majority approval in every province except Saskatchewan. That does not mean the country has become politically uniform, but it suggests the dispute with Washington is temporarily cutting across some of the usual regional fault lines. For a government facing economic uncertainty, tariff pressure and questions about how long the confrontation can last, a 62% approval rating provides more public latitude to resist a quick compromise than a more evenly divided national electorate would.

Walking Away From Washington Became a Political Catalyst

The approval surge did not appear in isolation. In Angus Reid polling conducted immediately after the August breakdown in negotiations, 76% of Canadians said Ottawa was right to walk away rather than accept a bad deal. Another 69% said Carney showed strength by refusing terms he believed were not in Canada’s interests. Even among people who voted Conservative in 2025, 53% said ending the talks was the right move.

That reaction helps explain why the latest approval number jumped so quickly. Trade disputes often punish governments when households feel the cost, but this episode has also become a test of sovereignty and bargaining credibility. Reuters reported that Carney said the United States needed to become more serious before talks could resume. For many Canadians, the political question is therefore no longer simply whether a deal can be reached, but whether the terms preserve Canadian policy independence to be worth signing.

Conservative Voters Are Almost Perfectly Divided

The 51–49 split among 2025 Conservative voters is the most politically revealing number in the new findings. Nationally, 73% want Canada to refuse difficult concessions even if the bilateral relationship worsens, but Conservative voters are almost divided: 51% prefer the harder line and 49% favour softening Ottawa’s stance. That makes the Conservative coalition less unified on the trade fight than other major partisan groups.

The contrast is sharp. Only 8% of past Liberal voters favour concessions, compared with 12% of past NDP voters and 18% of Bloc Québécois voters. In other words, resistance to U.S. demands is close to consensus among those groups while Conservatives are split down the middle. That creates a difficult political lane for Conservative leaders. Pushing too aggressively for compromise risks alienating voters who see concessions as weakness, while backing an uncompromising line may frustrate supporters who prioritize economic stability and a faster return to negotiations.

Canadians Want a Hard Line Despite Doubts About Leverage

Public resolve is especially notable because Canadians do not think their bargaining position is strong. Angus Reid finds 31% believe Canada is in a strong negotiating position, 34% say it is weak and 22% see the two countries as even. The public is therefore not choosing a tougher stance because it assumes Ottawa holds all the cards. Many appear willing to resist despite doubts about Canada’s leverage.

Partisanship shapes that assessment. Three in five people who voted Conservative in 2025 say the United States has the upper hand, while half of past Liberal voters take the opposite view. This gap helps explain the broader split over concessions. Voters who believe Washington possesses economic power may see compromise as practical risk management; those who believe Canada retains leverage can more easily support waiting. The tension between perceived weakness and resolve is central to understanding why the trade fight remains politically potent.

Support Remains Surprisingly Strong Even When Costs Rise

The willingness to hold firm extends into household pain. Angus Reid reports that 60% of Canadians say they would stay the course even if household expenses rose by 20%. Half also say they would maintain the tougher position through a recession or the closure of local small businesses. Those responses show that support for resistance is not limited to low-cost scenarios.

Still, hypothetical tolerance should not be mistaken for a guarantee of durable support. The institute’s late-August polling found 89% were concerned about the effect of the dispute on the cost of goods and services, while 38% of workers expressed at least some concern about losing their jobs. Political patience can erode when abstract risks become monthly bills, reduced hours or layoffs. For Carney, the challenge is to convert willingness to endure costs into confidence that the government has a credible strategy for limiting them and eventually securing better terms.

Auto Tariffs Are Emerging as a Major Canadian Red Line

Autos remain a clear test of what Canadians consider an acceptable outcome. Angus Reid finds 43% say Ottawa should accept only a deal that completely removes tariffs on Canadian vehicles, while 31% would accept an agreement that merely reduces them. The difference matters because the auto sector is deeply integrated across the border and sensitive to tariff costs across production.

The polling suggests many Canadians do not view partial relief as enough. Angus Reid notes that an earlier negotiating framework contemplated vehicle tariffs falling to 15%, although questions remained over which categories would receive relief. Carney has argued that proposed U.S. terms could weaken Canadian industrial capacity rather than preserve an integrated market. For workers and communities tied to assembly plants and parts suppliers, the issue is concrete: a tariff rate is not just a bargaining number, but a factor that can shape investment decisions, production allocation and job security.

Dairy and U.S. Alcohol Have Become Symbols of Resistance

The hard-line mood extends beyond factories into products that have become symbols of the dispute. Only 36% of Canadians say they support their province selling U.S. alcohol, according to Angus Reid. The institute also finds Canadians oppose giving the United States additional dairy access by roughly a two-to-one margin. Those positions show that consumer-facing measures and supply-managed agriculture have become symbols of standing firm.

These issues carry different economic weight, but they are powerful signals. Alcohol restrictions are visible because consumers encounter them on store shelves, while dairy access touches a dispute over Canada’s supply-management system. A government that trades away either issue may therefore face criticism even if the broader agreement contains gains elsewhere. The political difficulty is that negotiations are built on exchanges: Washington will seek concessions it can present as wins, while Ottawa must decide which compromises Canadians will regard as reasonable, which will look like capitulation.

A Plurality Wants Ottawa to Wait Until After the U.S. Midterms

Canadians are also divided over when Ottawa should return to the negotiating table, although the largest group favours waiting. Angus Reid says 41% would hold off until after the U.S. midterm elections. Another 26% want talks restarted immediately, and that preference rises to about half among past Conservative voters. A smaller group is prepared to wait much longer, including 13% who would delay until after Donald Trump is scheduled to leave office in 2029.

Timing is not a detail. Waiting can create leverage if political pressure in Washington changes, but delay also prolongs uncertainty for exporters, manufacturers and households. Reuters reported that Carney has said Canada remains ready for a mutually beneficial agreement when the United States is prepared to engage seriously. The public numbers give him room to avoid rushing back, yet they also show a sizeable constituency—especially on the Conservative side—that sees faster negotiations as the safer path.

Canada’s $27.6 Billion Counter-Tariffs Are Now in Effect

The trade fight moved from polling into policy on September 8, when Canada’s latest counter-tariffs took effect nationwide. The federal government says the new measures cover $27.6 billion in U.S. imports and apply rates of 15%, 25% and 50% depending on the product, matching U.S. tariff treatment. Targeted sectors include steel and aluminum, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, plastics and electronics.

That escalation had already received significant public backing from Canadians. In Angus Reid’s August 22–23 polling, 62% said Canada’s planned dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs were about right under the circumstances. The political advantage is clear: Carney is implementing a response that many Canadians had already endorsed. The economic risk is equally clear. Tariffs can raise costs for importers and businesses that depend on U.S. inputs, which is why the federal government has kept a remission process for cases where alternatives cannot reasonably be sourced domestically or from other countries.

Canada’s Reliance on the U.S. Explains the Enormous Stakes

Canada’s dependence on the U.S. market explains why the public’s willingness to resist is consequential. Statistics Canada says 71.7% of Canadian merchandise exports went to the United States in 2025, down from 75.9% in 2024. Exports to the U.S. fell 5.8% that year, while exports to other countries rose 17.2%. The shift shows diversification is happening, but the American market remains dominant.

The scale of the relationship is clearer in federal trade data: Canada and the United States exchanged nearly $3.5 billion in goods and services each day in 2025. That level of integration means there is no painless version of a prolonged trade conflict. A tougher negotiating stance may be politically popular, but businesses still need predictable access, investment rules and supply chains. The long-term test for Ottawa is whether it can reduce vulnerability to U.S. pressure without sacrificing the commercial benefits created by proximity and decades of integration.

The Political Momentum Is Real, but It Is Not Guaranteed to Last

The latest numbers give Carney momentum, but they should not be read as a realignment. His approval is high, resistance to concessions is broad and the Liberals won three federal special elections, including a Quebec seat previously held by the Conservatives. Those results suggest the government’s U.S. posture is helping politically. They do not prove that trade will remain the dominant issue if economic pain deepens.

The polling also deserves context. Angus Reid surveyed 1,498 Canadian adults online from September 3–4 using its national forum and weighted the sample to census benchmarks for region, gender, age, household income and education. The institute says that, for comparison only, a probability sample of that size would have a margin of error of about plus or minus two percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The strongest overall conclusion is therefore: Carney has gained substantial support while a hard line remains broadly popular.

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