Two Conservatives Start Campaigning for Poilievre’s Old Carleton Riding After His 2025 Defeat

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Pierre Poilievre’s former political home is becoming competitive territory inside his own party. Two Conservative nomination hopefuls have begun campaigning in Carleton, the sprawling Ottawa-area riding where Liberal Bruce Fanjoy stunned Canadian politics by defeating the Conservative leader in April 2025.

Federal public servant Sukhu Sekhon and business executive Goran Samuel Pesic are now meeting residents and organizing supporters ahead of a future Conservative nomination vote. There is an important distinction: the formal nomination contest has not yet been called, and neither man is presently the party’s official candidate. Their early campaigning nevertheless marks a new phase for a constituency closely associated with Poilievre for years. It also raises an intriguing question that remains unanswered: whether the Conservative leader will ever try to reclaim Carleton himself.

Two Conservative Hopefuls Are Already Building Campaigns

Sukhu Sekhon and Goran Samuel Pesic have confirmed that they are seeking the Conservative nomination in Carleton and have begun doing the ground-level work that often precedes a nomination vote. The Hill Times reported on September 6 that both men are meeting residents and preparing organizations even though party headquarters has not formally launched the local nomination election. That means membership recruitment, conversations with activists and community visibility can matter well before ballots are actually scheduled.

The two hopefuls arrive from different professional backgrounds. Sekhon is a federal public servant with previous involvement in Conservative organizing, while Pesic is a business executive and lobbyist who heads the Samuel Group. Their presence makes clear that Conservatives are no longer treating Carleton simply as a seat temporarily waiting for Poilievre. At least for now, prospective successors are preparing seriously for the possibility that somebody else will carry the Conservative banner when the riding is next contested.

Poilievre’s 2025 Loss Was Decisive, Not a Technical Defeat

Bruce Fanjoy’s victory was not the product of a recount or a razor-thin technicality. Official Elections Canada results show Fanjoy received 43,846 votes, or 50.9 per cent of valid ballots, compared with 39,333 votes and 45.7 per cent for Poilievre. The difference was 4,513 votes, giving the Liberals a margin of slightly more than five percentage points in one of the most closely watched constituencies of the 2025 campaign.

Participation was unusually intense. More than 86,000 valid ballots were cast in Carleton, and reporting based on Elections Canada figures placed turnout above 81 per cent, one of the strongest participation rates in Ontario. That matters when assessing the result. Poilievre did not lose because his supporters simply stayed home in a quiet contest; tens of thousands of voters participated in a highly visible race. For Conservatives now organizing there, the 2025 numbers provide both encouragement and warning: 39,333 Conservative votes represent a substantial base, but Fanjoy demonstrated that the constituency can change hands.

The Riding Had Been Part of Poilievre’s Political Identity for Years

Poilievre’s connection to the area stretches much further back than the current Carleton boundaries. House of Commons records show he was first elected in 2004 in Nepean—Carleton and was re-elected there in 2006, 2008 and 2011. After redistribution created the modern Carleton constituency, he won there in 2015 and retained it in both 2019 and 2021. His defeat on April 28, 2025 therefore ended more than two decades of uninterrupted representation of communities in Ottawa’s southern and rural outskirts.

That history makes the current nomination activity unusual. For years, Conservatives in the area did not have to imagine political life without Poilievre on the ballot. His victories also survived changing national circumstances, including the Conservative defeat in 2015 and subsequent Liberal governments. The 2025 result abruptly changed that relationship. Conservatives looking to succeed him must inherit some of the organization and recognition built during his tenure while also demonstrating that their appeal is their own rather than simply an extension of the former MP.

Sukhu Sekhon Says He Would Step Aside if Poilievre Returned

Sekhon’s campaign comes with an unusual condition. He told The Hill Times that if Poilievre decided to return and seek the Conservative nomination in Carleton, he would end his own bid and support the party leader. Sekhon described Poilievre as one of the reasons he became involved politically. That declaration effectively makes his campaign both a bid for succession and an acknowledgment that the former MP could immediately reshape the contest simply by announcing a return.

Sekhon nevertheless appears to be organizing on the assumption that a real race may occur. He told the publication that the party had allowed him to begin campaigning and that he was awaiting additional steps in the nomination process. His political résumé also includes local Conservative organizing: his professional profile lists service with Conservative electoral district associations, and during the 2025 election he worked on Blair Turner’s campaign in Ottawa South. That campaign told the Ottawa Citizen it knocked on roughly 62,000 doors, giving Sekhon experience with the intensive canvassing required in a large Ottawa constituency.

Goran Samuel Pesic Is Emphasizing Business and Local Roots

Pesic is approaching the contest from a different direction. His campaign identifies him as a Manotick resident, business executive and public-policy professional with more than three decades of experience spanning government affairs, national security, defence and international business. He serves as president and CEO of the Samuel Group of Companies and has framed his nomination bid around economic management, public safety, affordability, agriculture and the character of Carleton’s rural communities.

His campaign is already structured around grassroots activity. The campaign website asks supporters to volunteer, introduce Pesic to neighbours, organize small gatherings and encourage eligible residents to become Conservative members. It has also promoted outreach to farmers and communities across the riding. The Hill Times reported that Pesic had submitted his application for party vetting and said he had received an “in principle” go-ahead to conduct community outreach while that process proceeds. His strategy reflects an important reality of nomination politics: before winning a general election, a prospective Conservative candidate must first persuade the relatively small pool of eligible party members who choose the nominee.

An Earlier Conservative Bid Has Already Come and Gone

The current race is not Carleton’s first attempt to find a Conservative successor to Poilievre. In February 2026, Ottawa-area police officer Blair Turner announced plans to seek the nomination. Turner already had federal campaign experience, having represented the Conservatives in Ottawa South during the 2025 election, where he challenged longtime Liberal MP David McGuinty. His entry initially suggested that the party was beginning an orderly transition away from Poilievre’s Carleton era.

Two months later, however, Turner withdrew. An April 2 Canadian Press report said his announcement did not provide a detailed reason beyond saying he needed to focus his energy elsewhere. He emphasized that his commitment to public service and support for Poilievre had not changed. The withdrawal illustrates why an early nomination field should not be mistaken for a final ballot. Candidates can enter, leave or fail to complete party approval requirements long before a meeting is held. Sekhon and Pesic may therefore be the two visible contenders today without necessarily being the only names members eventually consider.

The Nomination Vote Has Not Actually Been Called Yet

The most important procedural detail is easy to overlook: Conservatives are campaigning for a nomination that has not formally reached the voting stage. As reported by The Hill Times, party headquarters had not yet officially launched the Carleton nomination election as of the period immediately preceding September 6, and no voting date had been publicly established. Additional candidates could consequently emerge once the formal process advances.

Canadian political parties have substantial authority over their own candidate-selection procedures. The Conservative Party publishes specific rules and procedures governing nominations, while its governing documents set out membership and organizational requirements. In practical terms, that makes a nomination campaign different from a general election. The immediate audience is not every Carleton resident but eligible Conservative members participating under party rules. Pesic’s campaign, for example, explicitly encourages supporters to purchase federal Conservative memberships. Early organization can therefore be valuable: a prospective candidate who signs up supporters, identifies existing members and builds volunteer networks before the vote is called may enter the formal contest with a meaningful organizational advantage.

Carleton Is Far More Than an Ottawa Suburban Seat

Campaigning in Carleton requires covering unusually varied political terrain. Elections Canada lists the current riding at approximately 1,873 square kilometres with a population of 124,416 based on 2021 census information. It lies entirely within the City of Ottawa but reaches far beyond the urban core, combining growing suburban communities with villages, farmland and large rural areas. The official elector list from the most recent event contained more than 106,000 names.

Communities associated with the constituency include Manotick, Greely, Osgoode, Richmond, North Gower, Metcalfe, Kars, Munster and parts of western rural Ottawa. That geography can produce political concerns quite different from those in downtown Ottawa. Housing and affordability matter, but so can agricultural policy, road infrastructure, development pressure, policing and preserving village character. A candidate who performs well in a subdivision may encounter a very different conversation several kilometres away on a farm. That helps explain why both current Conservative hopefuls are emphasizing local meetings rather than relying entirely on national messaging.

Fanjoy’s Victory Showed the Value of Relentless Local Organizing

The Conservatives are preparing to challenge an incumbent who has already demonstrated how powerful patient constituency work can be. After the 2025 election, Fanjoy told The Canadian Press that his upset victory grew from repeatedly showing up, listening to residents and knocking on doors. He said he personally visited more than 15,000 homes after beginning his effort roughly two years before election day. The campaign turned what had initially appeared to be a long-shot challenge into a Liberal victory against the Conservative leader.

Fanjoy now holds the advantages of incumbency. House of Commons records list him as the sitting Liberal MP for Carleton, with a constituency office in Manotick. For Conservatives, that changes the nature of the next contest. They would not simply be replacing a familiar Conservative name; they would be trying to defeat an incumbent who has already built his own local network. The experience of 2025 also provides a straightforward lesson for Sekhon, Pesic or any later contender: national Conservative popularity alone cannot substitute for sustained constituency-level organization.

Poilievre’s Alberta Seat Leaves His Long-Term Destination Unsettled

After losing Carleton, Poilievre needed another route back to the House of Commons. Conservative MP Damien Kurek stepped aside in Battle River—Crowfoot, allowing the party leader to contest an August 18, 2025 byelection in the deeply Conservative Alberta constituency. Elections Canada records show Poilievre won overwhelmingly, receiving 41,308 votes and 80.9 per cent of valid ballots. He has represented Battle River—Crowfoot since that victory.

That solved Poilievre’s immediate parliamentary problem but not the longer-term question of where he will run at the next general election. Current reporting says Kurek is expected to carry the Conservative banner again in Battle River—Crowfoot, while Poilievre’s eventual destination remains unclear. Pesic has interpreted the opening of Carleton nominations as a possible indication that the leader may not return, although he has acknowledged the uncertainty. Sekhon has taken the opposite practical approach: campaign now, but step aside if Poilievre comes back. Until the leader makes his intentions explicit, that uncertainty will hover over every Conservative organizing decision in Carleton.

Winning Back Carleton Would Carry Symbolic Weight for Conservatives

Carleton is only one seat in the House of Commons, but its political symbolism is considerably larger. Fanjoy’s 2025 victory transformed a constituency associated with one of Canada’s best-known Conservatives into evidence that even a party leader’s home base can become vulnerable. That happened despite the Conservatives improving their national position: Elections Canada says the party emerged from the 2025 election with 144 seats, up from 120 at dissolution, while the Liberals won 169.

For the next Conservative nominee, therefore, the objective will involve more than adding one seat to the party total. A win would demonstrate that the organization can recover territory lost during one of the most embarrassing constituency-level defeats in its recent history. A second Liberal victory would suggest that Carleton’s political transformation was more durable than a single unusual campaign. The nomination fight is still in its early stages, and additional contenders may yet emerge. But with Sekhon and Pesic already campaigning, the effort to determine who will attempt to reclaim Poilievre’s former political base has clearly begun.

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